BBL10 Betting Preview – Week 7

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Out of all 51 games so far this season, in only 4 has the winning team lost more wickets than their opponents.   

One occasion was where the Hurricanes won by a single run against the Heat, twice was when the Sixers got the required runs with one ball spare, and the last was the very first game of BBL10.  

This backs up the insight I stated last week that wickets win matches, or to be more accurate, taking more wickets than your opponent’s will win you matches (92% of the time in BBL10 in fact).  

Due to this, I have created my own ladder that removes the futile ‘Bash Boost Point’ and ranks teams by their Wicket Differential from the last 5 games (wickets taken – wickets lost). Only including the last 5 games is appropriate for the Big Bash as well due to the ever-changing team lineups. 

By no means does this ladder depict who the best and worse team is in recent weeks, however it provides some insight into which teams may be underperforming or overperforming.

For example, one would assume from the ladder below that the Stars are underperforming or have been unlucky, which is arguably true since they have lost 2 games in the 20th over, throughout the past 2 weeks, and are currently sitting 2nd last.

Therefore, if you agree with me that the Stars are undervalued, you can back them against the Sixers tomorrow night @ $2.02, or alternatively you can back the Stars @ $31 to win the title. Amazing value if you ask me…

TeamWinsWkts TakenWkts LostWkts +/-
Stars 34 25 
Sixers 36 28 
Scorchers 32 25 
Strikers 30 33 -3 
Hurricanes 27 33 -6 
Thunder 26 33 -7 
Heat 33 40 -7 
Renegades 27 35 -8 

Adelaide Strikers Vs Sydney Thunder 

Sydney Thunder to win Head-to-Head @ $1.76 

Although the Strikers beat the Thunder only last night, it was by no means a comprehensive win.  Halfway through the match, Sydney Thunder were sitting 1-73, only needing 7.9 runs per over and were looking to comfortably hold onto 3rd spot. However, they went on to lose 5-27 in the following 4 overs as they chased the infamous bash boost point. 

If the Thunder can realign their tactics and focus on the win that will yield them 3 points, rather than the bash boost that will yield them only 1, I do not see why the Thunder cannot roll the Strikers this time around.

When you add in the fact that in every occasion where the Strikers have had back to back matches against an opponent this season, they have comfortably won the first match, but gone onto lose the second bout in ugly fashion, I value the Thunder here. 

Brisbane Heat Vs Perth Scorchers 

Perth Scorchers to win Head-to-Head @ $1.65 

The Heat have lost 3 of their last 5 games, with their only wins coming against bottom side Renegades who have been dismal all season. Not only has the Heats form been poor, but they’ve also been bowled out in each of their last 5 games besides those against the Renegades, who have not taken more than 8 wickets since their first match. 

On the other hand, the Scorchers have gone from strength to strength and are now the favourites to take out the BBL10 title this season going at $2.45. The likes of international stars Roy, Livingstone, Munro have also returned to form, with Munro now sitting 4th in the league for most runs this season. 

With the Scorchers having a wickets differential that is 14 greater than the Heat in the last 5 games, at $1.65 odds, this market is a steal. 

Melbourne Renegades Vs Hobart Hurricanes 

Hobart Hurricanes to win Head-to-Head @ $1.61 

Despite their recent wins against the Stars and Strikers, the Renegades have not improved their batting woes, being bowled out in their most recent match, which is the 6th time that they have lost all 10 wickets this season alone. 

The above ladder shows that despite the Renegades gaining some form, they are still clearly the worst side in the competition, having taken the 2nd least amount of wickets from the past 5 games, and losing the 2nd most.

The Hurricanes are pushing to secure their spot in the finals on Tuesday as well, and I doubt the likes of recent returnees, Matthew Wade and Riley Meredith, will let them down.