BBL10 Betting Preview – Week 6

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Melbourne Stars vs Adelaide Strikers 

Melbourne Stars to win Head-to-Head @ $1.71

The MCG will welcome back Big Bash cricket for the first time in almost 12 months, as the Stars finally play their first home game of the season. The home ground advantage is huge for the Stars, boasting a winning rate of 64% at the Colosseum in the past 2 seasons. 

The Strikers who comfortably beat the Stars only a few days ago will be without ICC T20 Player of the Decade, Rashid Khan. With Khan’s stint in BBL10 finished, this leaves a large hole in the Strikers bowling line-up, especially against the Stars, as Khan is the only Strikers bowler to take a wicket in every match against the Stars, in the last 4 seasons. 

When you add in the fact that when Adelaide have had back-to-back games against teams this season, they have dominated the first match, but then gone onto a shock defeat in the second. I like the Stars value here. 

Wes Agar  – Adelaide Strikers Top Wicket Taker @ $3.30

If you’re looking for some extra value this week consider Wes Agar for top wicket-taker. Due to Rashid Khan departing the team, Wes Agar is the clear front runner to take this market out on Friday night as he loves taking wickets this season, currently sitting 2nd in the league for most wickets taken.  

Peter Siddle also offers some value at $3.45 due to him sitting 7th in the league for wickets taken, even whilst missing a game. However be wary, Siddle has struggled with consistently getting wickets this season, being top wicket-taker on 3 occasions for the Strikers but also taking 0 wickets on 4 occasions. 

Sydney Sixers vs Perth Scorchers 

Perth Scorchers to win Head-to-Head @ $1.76

The Perth Scorchers are now the team to beat in BBL10. After a lacklustre start to the season, initially posting a 0-3 record, the Scorchers have hit their New Year resolutions on the head, winning their last 5 games and currently having beaten every team inside the top 5 on the ladder. 

The reason behind the Scorchers remarkable turnaround is simply down to wickets taken and wickets lost. In the first 3 games of the season where the Scorchers were winless, on average they lost 4 more wickets than their opponents. Paired with an inability to create a strong opening partnership lead to the Scorchers producing a bleak run-rate of 7 runs per over.

However, since they have won 5 games on the trot. In those 5 games, their opponents have always lost more wickets than they have, and they’ve even had the highest opening partnership on 80% of those occasions. The lack of Scorchers wickets lost, unsurprisingly, lead to their run rate increasing to a BBL best of 8.8 since.

 Scorchers (First 3 losses vs last 5 wins)Losses Wins 
Wickets lost per game 8.3 3.4 
Opponents wickets lost per game 4.7 8.8 
Highest opening partnership? 1/3 4/5 
Run rate for 7.0 8.8 
Comparing the Perth Scorchers stats from their first 3 losses in BBL10 to their last 5 wins

Sydney Sixers – Highest Opening Partnership @ $1.96

The Sixers are currently sitting 2 games clear on top of the ladder, so do not count them out as a chance to win this game. Although the Scorchers are clear favourites, if you want to hedge your bets, consider these two markets.

As explained before, wickets win matches, and early wickets help a lot. Although a basic concept, the Sixers best hope of winning is to take an early wicket and produce a large opening stand themselves.

Opener and wicket-keeper, Josh Philippe, is currently the leading run-scorer in BBL10 making this prediction an even stronger hedge if the Sixers end up strengthening their lead on the ladder.

OR, Steven O’Keefe – Sydney Sixers Top Wicket Taker @ $4

In the past 3 Sixers games, only O’Keefe and Bird have bowled 4 overs in each of those games due to the depth of the Sixers bowling attack. However, despite only bowling 20% of the overs in the last 3 games, O’Keefe has taken over 25% of their wickets since he has been back in the side. 

Factoring in that O’Keefe has been top wicket-taker in 2 of those 3 matches, he is more likely than any other Sixer to go straight through the red hot Scorchers.