Test Match & BBL10 Betting Preview – Week 4

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Australia vs India 

Australia to win Head-to-Head @ $1.63

The Venue: 

The Sydney Cricket Ground has been Australia’s fortress in recent times, only losing once in their last 17 test matches, with that loss coming from the grim 2010/11 Ashes series where Australia lost 3-1. Unsurprisingly India are quite the opposite, having drawn 50% of their matches, and only have 1 win to show from their 12 attempts at the ground.  

In saying that, two summers ago India’s likely victory was put on hold as the rain poured down forcing a drawn, only allowing 275 out of a possible 450 overs to be bowled.

In that game Pujara batted for 9 hours, scoring 193, and faced the equivalent of 62 overs. Fortunately for the Australian bowlers, Cummins has had the better of Pujara this series, getting him out caught 3 out of his 4 innings, all with behind square on the off side. 

The Weather:

Although the rain could be in affect in Sydney over the next week, the batting collapses of both sides tells me that even if a few overs are lost, there will be a winner.

The Verdict:

Australia have not had a centurion in the last 6 Test matches against India, which will be the main cause of concern for the Australians. 

However, whether Warner is fully fit or not, I believe he is the key to Australia’s batting woes, as he will add a much-needed batting presence at the top of the order. There should also be no concern that Warner has not played since the ODI’s, more than a month ago, as he has was the 3rd top run scorer in the IPL last season, and averaged 131 with the bat in hand last summer thanks to 3 large centuries. 

I lean towards Australia taking this match at the SCG. However in order to win, either Warner or Smith will need to put some much needed runs on the board, and the Australians will have to be more clinical and improve on their 8 dropped catches at the MCG.

Australia to win the Toss @ $1.88 

Ajinkya Rahane will be disappointed with last week’s performance, losing the toss to Tim Paine and damaging his record even further, which is currently sitting at 2 wins from 8 tosses as Indian captain in international matches. 

If you want some extra value, consider putting this in a multi with Australia to win the test match. Despite last week’s Boxing Day nightmare, Australia haven’t won the toss and then lost the match in a home Test, since their 7 run defeat against New Zealand in 2011. 

As long as Rahane is not reminded that tails never fails in New South Wales, then the odds are in favour of the Australians. 

Brisbane Heat vs Sydney Thunder 

Brisbane Heat to win Head-to-Head @ $2.19

Brisbane Heat are seeking revenge after the Thunder stole victory in the final balls of the match last time these teams went head-to-head. The odds are also very similar again, with the Brisbane Heat only drifting from $2.10 to $2.19 this game. 

The Heat have welcomed in international players, Denly, Burns and Gregory (Lynn and Morkel possibly coming back as well), which has only bolstered the Heats line up and form, comfortably beating top of the table, Sydney Sixers, last week. However, in order for Brisbane to win they will need to steal an early wicket, hopefully of in-form opener Alex Hales who is $3.35 to be top run scorer for the Thunder.

Although the Thunder are a quality outfit, they have received plenty of luck from the cricket gods who have assisted them in a few of their wins. Therefore, I see much more value in the Brisbane Heat in this blockbuster.

Lewis Gregory – Brisbane heat Top Run Scorer @ $6.15 

English star, Lewis Gregory, has taken BBL10 by storm producing some Watson/Kallis like performances in recent weeks taking 3 wickets on debut, and averaging 31 with the bat. 

Despite batting down the order at 6, Gregory boasts the 4th best T20 batting average, only a couple runs shy of Joe Denly and openers, Burns and Bryant. 

The Thunder love an early wicket themselves, having the opponent’s 6th batsmen coming in on the 12th over on average this season. If history continues, this will give Gregory plenty of time to become top run scorer, considering he has a career T20 strike rate of 146, the best of any Heat batsmen, even trumping Chris Lynn.

Melbourne Renegades vs Adelaide Strikers 

Adelaide Strikers to win Head-to-Head @ $1.66

The Renegades are trying their hardest to replicate their 9 game losing streak they produced last season, after their 6th loss in a row to the second worst ranked side in the competition. Although, their batting has slightly improved on the shoulders of Marsh who has scored 30% of their runs this season.

The Strikers who have scored between 139-165 all season, will look to push the 170 run mark if they bat first due to one of the Renegades largest weaknesses, their bowling economy, with the Renegades bowlers averaging 9.1 runs per over this season.

The Renegades have their two biggest scores in their last 2 matches, although both innings heavily reliant on Marsh who has scored 46% of their runs in those 2 matches. Unless Marsh can continue his form, or Finch produces his magic, the Strikers should win comfortably. 

1st Wicket Dismissal Renegades – Caught @ $1.38 

In the last two seasons, Renegades openers Finch and Marsh have been out caught 86% and 78% of the time respectively, with Finch being out caught in his last 8 consecutive bouts. The odds have been sitting at a $1.38 all season for the 1st Wicket Dismissal to be Caught, which equates to a 72% chance of it occurring. When comparing this to the record Finch and Marsh have, it shows that the market is clearly undervalued and that either batsmen are much more likely to go out caught then some may think. 

Adding in the fact that the Renegades 1st wicket mode of dismissal has been caught for the last 10 games, which would have yielded you a return of roughly 380% if you bet on it each game, then this is arguably the best bet in the Big Bash at the moment. 

*statistics are correct as of the 2/01/2020