Melbourne form Tim Kennedy is here to give you his weekly metro racing preview.
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All prices correct at time of writing.
All credit to Ballarat Turf Club who have assembled a cracking field for the $500,000 race. A very open and tough race with many of these runners coming to the end of big spring campaigns. The whole card looks really good and I think we will have some real quality racing on Saturday. Ballarat has even turned on the weather with 29 degrees and sunshine expected. Such a shame the general public can’t attend. The track will start a Good 4 and possibly upgrade to a Good 3 later in the day.
Race 8 – 2000m Ballarat Cup
- Kiwia $31 – The old boy is going for 3 Ballarat Cups in a row and I think he can do it. He has had almost an identical preparation to last year when he peaked in this race. He isn’t getting any younger and I would have liked to see him drawn a bit better. It will take a super ride from Johnny Allen because I expect him to be back. He is 4 from 4 at this track. At the price I think he certainly worth an each way bet in a very open race. Many of these are going here as an after-thought whereas this boy was aimed at this race. Archie Alexander will have him ready for this now.
- Junipal $5.50 – This horse is flying and there is no reason why he can’t keep it going here. I don’t think the 2000m will be an issue at all. He will run well. Fingers crossed for local connections he can win their home cup.
- Affair to Remember $5.50 – One for the locals here, would mean the world if Dan O Sullivan could win his home cup here. This girls is going super and has a terrific turn of foot. Her issue is that she can sometimes flop out of the gates. If she can jump well and sit midfield, she is a massive chance. But if she flops out and ends up at the rear, she will have a lot of work to do late and it is a lot harder to do that at Ballarat then it is at Flemington, like her last start.
- Gamekeeper $23 – On paper his form doesn’t look good but I think he is going better than that. They rolled the dice in the Bart Cummings and he just didn’t stay. This is his best trip back to 2000m. After a little freshen up he then ran only 2L to Purple Sector over 1800m, I think he is ready to show his best now. Drawn well.
Other races I am keen to play in:
Race 2 – 2600m BM78 Hcp
Some may think I’ve lost the plot with this selection with form reading ‘086097’. In a very even race I have landed on Jack Regan. He comes out of the Sin to Win Flemington race where he over raced but held on ok, before that was solid enough in a much higher class Bendigo Cup. I think he is now back to his correct grade here and am expecting a big improvement. The stable are very bullish about his chances and believe he is going really well. Worth an each way play to kick off the day.
Selection: Jack Regan $10 EW
Race 3 – 1400m Vobis Gold Eureka Stockade
Originally this looked a race in two, but overnight Reciprocation has been scratched and it really looks an easy kill for Shelby Cobra. This gelding was super when winning the Springtime Stakes at Flemington. He is drawn perfectly and will be winning this. Sounds crazy but anything $1.50+ is a bet here, in my humble.
Selection: Shelby Cobra $1.45 WIN
Race 4 – 1000m Magic Millions Clockwise Classic
This one always confuses a few of the locals after some early cold refreshments, they think they are seeing things with this horses running the wrong way. A very tricky race to play into and not one you can be confident in when having a bet. Historically you need to be on speed in this race, it is very hard to make up any ground. Ranveer has been the big market mover after a super on speed trial. Jayanthi is the other impressive one from the trials, but has had some barrier issues and will need to jump with them to be a chance. Butter Blonde has the benefit of race experience, gets Craig Williams on board and will be on speed. Ticks a lot of boxes and we are getting an each way price.
Selection: Butter Blonde $6 EW
Race 6 – 1200m BM78
Lunakorn is the horse I want to be on here, I have a big opinion of this horse. She has a super turn of foot. She has had a lot of bad luck with barriers and often finds herself well back and chasing a long way out. I believe from barrier 5 she can sit more handy here midfield and unleash late and blow them away. She is third up here, will be rock hard fit and gets a dry track which is her favoured surface. At the odds very happy to have a bet here.
Selection: Lunakorn $5.50 EW
Race 7 – 1600M Suez Mckellar Mile BM78
Right You Are was huge when first up at Flemington over the mile in a fast run race. Was squeezed for some room in the straight, but once he got into clear air, he really savaged the line. The stable believed he went into that run a little under done, he will have taken a lot from that run and be ready to fire here. A scheduling mix up leads to Zahra on instead of Ollie, he has drawn perfectly to get a great sit in behind the leaders and will be pulling out into the straight and flashing home. Best Bet of the day.
Selection: Right You Are $2.70
Race 9 – 1100m Magic Millions Classic
Really finding it hard to see past Astrologist in this race. He was really good first up at Geelong when blowing them away. Then went down the Flemington straight and went down a lip to Exhilarates, who is a group standard horse. I believe he will also be better getting back around a bend. In a pretty shallow race he just picks himself. If you didn’t want to play the shorts, I would suggest an each way play on Hawker Hurricane. This horse has struggled to find the form he produced early in his career, but both his wins have been at this track. He looks to be flying in his jump-outs and goes well fresh. I think he can run a big race.
Selection: Astrologist $2.20 WIN – Hawker Hurricane $7 EW
Race 10 – 1400m BM84
Tough way to finish the day here. Yao Dash came down from Sydney and ran in behind Exhilarates/Astrologist at Flemington. He ran well but not sure he was in the best part of the track. Has G1 form as a 3yo and his best would just be winning this. Ocular looks to be a talent, is going well this prep but is drawn the car park here and he might have some work to do rounding them up if he goes back. Beehunter was really good last start at Flemington when going down a nose to Power Scheme, who has franked that form. The Difference is over from Adelaide, has won impressively over there in lesser grade. A very consistent horse who is now gradually going through the grades. Was solid last start at Flemington in behind Ocular, will run well again. You can also never rule out Mr Tipla who will pop up when you least expect it. Tricky way to finish the day!
Selection: Yao Dash $4 WIN – The Difference $10 EW
LEG 1 – 3 Right You Are, 17 Caffrey, 2 Kaplumpich.
LEG 2 – 3 KWD, 4 Junipal, 5 Al Galayel, 6 Kiwia, 10 ATR, 14 Gamekeeper.
LEG 3 – 1 Hawker Hurricane, 3 The Astrologist, 4 Whipcracker Way.
LEG 4 – 4 Star Missile, 7 Yao Dash, 10, Mr Tipla, 11 Ocular, 17 Beehunter, 19 The Difference.
Good Luck Punters!