2020 Lexus Melbourne Cup

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Melbourne form analyst Tim Kennedy is here to give you his Melbourne Cup racing preview.

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All prices correct at time of writing.

Race 7 – 3200m Melbourne Cup

We have a perfect day ahead for Cup day. 27 degrees and bright sunshine in Melbourne forecast for Tuesday. Such a shame there will be no one on course for the day! I believe this is a quality field and the internationals that have come out for this race are elite. If you find the winner, the value will pay for itself with no runner being under $8. Hope everyone has a great day and manages to fill their pockets!

My Top Selections:

  1. Tiger Moth $8 – Incredibly this horse is trying to win the Melbourne Cup in only his fifth ever start. His form overseas has been nothing short of spectacular in his 4 starts. He has the biggest ceiling of the field and if he can peak for this run and out to this trip, I think he can win. The few queries are his inexperience and never been out to this trip. But the way he has been racing, he looks like he will relish the trip. Unfortunately he has drawn poorly so will be back but will have cover and looks to have the best turn of foot out of the field. A big chance.
  2. Ashrun $23 – A huge win on Saturday in the Lexus to force his way into the field when coming from last, off a slow tempo and with 61kg. He now drops to 53kg and gets Declan Bates on board to steer. With a better draw I would have had him on top but unfortunately he has drawn barrier 24, so will end up close enough to last in the run. But he is a real stayer and will be running on strongly late with his light weight.
  3. Surprise Baby $9 – Ran a huge race in last year’s cup, arguably should have won. If he runs up to that run he will be in the finish. He has drawn well and will sit midfield this year which will help. The query is we just don’t know how he is going, we have only seen him twice and he was only fair in those races. He is well handicapped and gets the services of Craig Williams. Expecting a big run.
  4. Prince of Arran $11 – The Aussie prince is back for his third tilt at the cup. Having placed the last two years, he is back to try and go one better. From all reports back home he is going better than ever and he was super flashing home in the Caulfield Cup. Gets the in form Jamie Kah on board, she will just need to navigate that tricky inside barrier. With even luck he will be in the finish.
  5. Anthony Van Dyck $9 – Was a huge run when well back in the Caulfield Cup, just kept on coming but Verry Elleegant just managed to fight him off. He has drawn really well in barrier 3 for Hugh Bowman. The query for him is whether he can stay the trip having never been out to that distance before. From that draw Bowman should be able to just get cover and save him up for one last run at them into the straight. Does have to carry the top weight, which hasn’t been done since Makybe Diva.
  6. Verry Elleegant $12 – She hasn’t done a thing wrong this preparation when winning the Winx Stakes, Turnbull Stakes and the Caulfield Cup. She is not tried at this trip but she is just so tough and always keeps fighting late in races. No mare has placed in the top 5 in a Melbourne Cup since Makybe Diva, but I think this girl could definitely change that. She obviously enjoys a softer surface but she was super winning the Caulfield Cup on a good surface, I think she has now ticked that box.

Best Roughie – Persan $34 – Loves Flemington and just never runs a bad race. So consistent. Wouldn’t surprise me if he was around the mark.

Other races on the day I am keen to play in:

Race 5 – 1800m Tab Trophy

#2 Aintnodeeldun $2 – Last start was massive when defeating Victoria Quay over in Adelaide. VQ then went on to frank that form when beating Personal in the Wakeful Stakes on Saturday, with a gap to third. This Dundeel colt has huge upside and I expect him to be winning here. Anything above $2 is great odds. Best bet.

Good luck punters!