Derby Day

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Melbourne form analyst Tim Kennedy is here to give you his weekly metro racing preview.

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All prices correct at time of writing.

Race 1 – 1600m Carbine Club Stakes

Aysar narrowly went down to Ole Kirk in the G1 Guineas last start. This is superb form for a race like this. If he can run up to that level he will be really hard to beat. Drawn inside and I think the big Flemington track will suit his long striding and loping action. Crosshaven and Embolism next best. This is a great way to kick off the day with a winner, anything better than $2 is a good bet. My best bet of the day.

Selection: Aysar $2.10

Race 2 – 2000m Wakeful Stakes

A very even field here in the second race. Personal is deserved favourite after chasing home Odeum in the G1 Thousand Guineas last start. She is building up to a win and the step up in trip really looks like it will suit. Victoria Quay comes over from the Mcevoy yard after running second to a handy one in a highly rated race in South Australia. Agreeable and Succeed Indeed are always around the mark, rarely run a bad race. The big question here will be if these horses can run the 2000m trip. A very even race, no firm opinion for me. Possibly play a few mutiples.

Selection: Personal $3

Race 3 – 1200m Tab Stakes

The favourite here Octane has been in super form this prep. Winning three on the trot before finishing close up in his next two. He is proven down the straight. He drops down 4.5kg off last run. The only question mark is the 1200m, all his best performances have been over 1100m. He may need the line in that last 100m and be vulnerable. Corruscate has been super winning 2/2 this prep, but does go up in weight and against better opposition. Blazejowski had a super trial, goes well fresh and has great track/trip stats. Looks a bet.

Selection: Blazejowski $7.50 EW

Race 4 – 2500m Lexus Hotham Stakes

This is the last chance for these horses to get into the Melbourne Cup, win and you’re in! I am really liking the chances of one of the internationals here. Ashrun was super in the Geelong Cup, having to go wide from the back. Was best through the line and needed that run. His ideal prep was to peak second up in the Cup, unfortunately he didn’t quite make that field so this is the next best option. He will be peaking and ready to go. Keen to back him on race day and I think we will get $5+.

Selection: Ashrun $4.50

Race 5 – 1800m Empire Rose Stakes

This looks a race in two, when looking at the market. Between Odeum and Mystic Journey. Odeum was super winning the G1 Thousand Guineas. This is his fifth run in his first ever prep, the query will be if they have gone on race too many here. Mystic Journey hit back into form at The Valley last start when just nailing Perfect Jewel and gapping the rest. She is a G1 mare and if she can get back to that form consistently she will be hard to beat. Pretty Brazen was super early this prep, if she got back to her best she could blow them away late. Will sit back and should get a hot speed up front so she can be strong through the line. Goes well at Flemington.

Selection: Mystic Journey $4/ Pretty Brazen $14 EW

Race 6 – 1200m Coolmore Stud Stakes

September Run has been in super form this prep, she has gone to a new level and ran super times to go with it. Two brilliant wins down the Flemington straight. It is very hard to find anything to knock with her. I think she will continue on her winning ways. Farnan is the interesting runner in the field. After going at a ridiculous tempo out in front last start, he is now back after a couple of nice trials. If he can get back to his best, he could be very hard to run down! But the queries are there.

Selection: September Run $4

Race 7 – 2500m Victoria Derby

The feature race of the day here. Not quite the quality of previous years. Ben a lot of discussion throughout the week if it should be dropped back to 2000m. Young Werther is the spruik horse, coming into this with only two starts, after scratching last week due to the wet track. Drawn perfect and gets the services of Ollie. Only query is if he can stay the 2500m after missing a run but he looks to be a genuine talent. Cherry Tortoni won in fast time last week at the Valley. All his best performances have been on soft tracks though, this weekend I’m expecting a good track. He is also drawn out and will be well back. But he should be rock hard fit. Lets Karaka Deal and Redwood Shadow next best for the mutiples.

Selection: Young Werther $4

Race 8 – 1600m Kennedy Cantala

This an extremely tough and open race, with only two horse in single figures. I am happy to look past those two, being Mr Quickie and Buffalo River. Plenty of value here if we can find it. Rock comes out of a highly rated Epsom in Sydney. Was suited to be on the speed that day, he ran the race fastest L200m to only finish 2L off Probabeel. Harbour Views (SCRATCHED) if he can get into the field looks great value. Drawn well and get Kerrin Mcevoy on. Hasn’t missed a place in five attempts at this trip. Flemington has always looked like it would suit him, along with a good surface. Olmedo is another horse that looks over the odds. This Waller international beat a horse called Mountain Angel late last year, this horse then beat Sir Dragonet earlier this year at Royal Ascot. After Sir Dragonet’s dominant win last week this looks like a good form line.

Selection: Rock $11/ Olmedo $34

Race 9 – 1100m Furphy Sprint

Tough way for punters to finish the day here but hopefully the Sportsbetting accounts are already full! Diamond Effort keeps running well and loves this sprint. Coming out of some nice races. Fituese and California Zimbol went head to head at Caulfield, with CZ just getting the better of Fituese. I think Fituese can turn the tables here, I think the Flemington Straight will suit her. Her sectionals up in Sydney were exceptional, she seemed a bit flat last start. Hoping she can get back to her best! Bless Her is one of my favourites and just keeps on winning and running well. Hard to knock winning form. Tough race to finish the day!  

Selection: Fituese $4.60


LEG 1:
1 Farnan, 2 Wild Ruler, 7 Anders, 13 Muntaseera, 14 September Run.

LEG 2:
1 Cherry Tortoni, 4 Lets Karaka Deal, 5 Young Werther, 6 Hit the shot, 8 Redwood.

LEG 3:
1 Fifty Stars, 3 Olmedo, 4 Wild Planet, 5 Yulong Prince, 9 Rock.

LEG 4:
1 Exhilarates, 3 Diamond Effort, 4 California, 8 Fituese, 12 Bless Her.

Good luck punters!