Melbourne form analyst Tim Kennedy is here to give you his weekly metro racing preview.
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All prices correct at time of writing.
Race 9 – 2400m Caulfield Cup
As always a field of very talented gallopers assemble here, with the locals going up against some strong internationals. The biggest factor for this race could be the 10-25mm of rain expected on Saturday morning, which may not assist some of the more favoured internationals who like the dryer surfaces. As always this is a tough race to assess with so many different form lines, but I have come up with my top 5.
- Verry Elleegant – Originally the NZ mare didn’t make my top 4 selections but with the rain coming, the conditions will be perfect for her. She grows another leg in soft conditions. A tough win on an unfavoured surface in the Turnbull. Has drawn well and should get every chance coming wide in the straight. Can never underestimate the ability of Waller to set a horse for a big race.
- Anthony Van Dyck – International coming over from the Aiden O Brien stable. Has elite world class form beating Stradivarius and a nice second behind Ghaiyetth. Has drawn the car park so will need a good ride from Hugh Bowman. The dryer the better, connections are hoping the rain doesn’t come.
- Buckhurst – Another talented international. Last start ran behind Tiger Moth (a fancied runner in the Melbourne Cup) when carrying 63.5kg, he won’t know himself dropping 8.5kg for this race. Ben Melham rides from a nice middle barrier. Another who is hoping the rain stays away.
- Toffee Tongue – Oaks winner who was only just nailed late by Verry Elleegant in the Turnbull. Appears to be flying at the moment. Gets in with only the 51kg on her back. Will appreciate any rain that is coming, her best record is on soft/heavy tracks.
- Master of Wine – Was closing in on the winner in the Turnbull. Looks like he will relish this step up in trip. Perfect draw and Craig Williams on are a massive plus. Soft track won’t cause any issues. Amongst the winning chances.
Other races on the day I am keen to play in:
Race 2 – 1400m OMS Media Plate
This talented young Toronado filly Rainbiel is stepping up to metro grade after looking super impressive winning 2 from 2 this prepin the bush. Put the field away with ease at Kyneton last start when running good time. Will race up on speed and I believe will show her superior ability and beat this field. Looks a great way to kick off the day!
Selection: Rainbiel $2.50
Race 3 – 1400m Gothic Stakes
I was very keen on Endanger last start at the Valley. He sat in behind the leaders and didn’t get clear air till late, was only beaten 0.4L and should have won. The Medaglia Doro gelding really wobbled around the corner on the tight turning track but once he straightened up really hit the line strongly. I thought last start Jye Mcneil should have led on the horse, from an inside barrier I am hoping the same on Saturday. Either way he will be right up on speed again. I am very keen to play here and he is my best bet of the day.
Selection: Endanger $4.00
Race 5 – 2000m Ethereal Stakes
This looks a very even race but I am happy to play two horses at nice odds, the first being Succeed Indeed. Two back this filly ran some really sharp late sections when winning at Sandown. She stayed at the mile trip in the Edward Manifold at Flemington, didn’t get clear air till late and then flew late. I feel the step up to 2000m here will really suit and she should get her chance. The other horse I like is Silhouette, coming out of the same race at Flemington, was stuck up against the fence and just never got clear air. Race prior was super running quick times. Any rain will really enhance this girls’ chances. Both look great each way plays in an even race.
Selection: Succeed Indeed $6 – Silhouette $7
Race 6 – 1100m Allinghi Stakes
Fituese has come down from Sydney after a strong win coming from last against the boys. She is an absolute winning machine, winning 6/9 in her career. Gets the services of Craig Williams, her usual pattern is to be back and running on so I am expecting her to settle last. But this is only a field of 9 so she should get her chance to round them up in the straight. She has run well on soft/heavy tracks but I think a better surface would in her favour. Can’t imagine her getting any shorter from the current quote, so she could be a good one to wait until the day to see what price you get.
Selection: Fituese $2.70
Race 7 – 1000m Caulfield Sprint
Speaking of winning machines, we have another one in this race in Alfa Oro. He is putting together a super record of 6 wins and 2 seconds from the 8 starts. The Laurie yard scratched last week to hold him back for this more suitable race. The rain will be perfect for him he seems to really get through it and also will disadvantage his biggest rival, Fabergino. From a low draw I simply expect Ben Melham to lead, rail like a greyhound and be very hard to run down. Anything $2+ is good odds.
Selection: Alfa Oro $2.10
Race 8 – 1400m Moonga Stakes
We see our best bet from last week Windstorm back up again here after a super victory. Whilst he is a super horse and will again be hard to beat, I think he is a little under the odds. I have landed on Best of Days with the in-form Jamie Kah in the saddle. There was some smart late money for this Godolphin gelding first up and he ran right up to it, running a close third. He is generally better second up and has run well previously on a soft track. It has been a while since we have seen his Group 1 form but he looks to have come back super and is a big chance in this race.
Selection: Best of Days $7
Race 10 – 1400m Tristarc Stakes
Pretty Brazen is a horse I have always had a lot of time for, she has been going super this time in. Two back was only a length off Bohemoth, who is going around in the Everest tomorrow. Last start had no luck at a crucial stage, I am happy to forgive that run. Goes really well this track & trip and has won on soft ground before. Hopefully by this stage of the day the track is holding up ok but I am expecting they will be getting off the fence into the straight. This is the exact spot this mare will be blending into the race. Hopefully a great way to finish off the day!
Selection: Pretty Brazen $4.50
LEG 1 – 6 Alfa Oro, 7 Garner.
LEG 2 – 9 Windstorm, 10 Best of days, 7 The Inevitable, 1 Fifty Stars, 4 Wild Planet
LEG 3 – 7 Verry Eleegant, 1 AVD, 11 Master of wine, 4 Buckhurst, 17 Toffee tongue
LEG 4 – 1 Pretty Brazen, 3 Perfect Jewel, 4 Felicia, 6 She shao Fly, 2 Madame Rouge
Good Luck Punters!