Melbourne form analyst Tim Kennedy is here to give you his weekly metro racing preview.
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All prices correct at time of writing.
Race 1 – 1000m Magic Millions Debutant Stakes
Tough start to the day for punters with an almost impossible listed 2yo race. All starters are on debut. Whilst there were some nice trials from the likes of Fake Love and Anamoe, we will keep our powder dry for this one.
Race 2 – 1200m Thoroughbred Club Stakes
Swats That comes up short price favourite for this race after an impressive victory at the Valley and prior to that holding form behind the airborne September Run. That form is hard to knock and I couldn’t talk anyone out of backing her if they were keen. But the horse I want to be with is Muntaseera, I feel these two should be closer in the market. She was excellent first up, coming from last to beat Valaquenta. I thought she even died on her run the last 50m in that event, so I’m expecting her to come on from that run and be strong to the line here. Drawn perfect, she should get every chance. Highly Discreet, an interesting runner from the Stokes yard, one to keep an eye on.
Selection: Muntaseera @ $4.50
Race 3 – 1400m The Weekend Hussler
Windstorm is absolutely flying at the moment. Last start victory was enormous, coming off a slow tempo to run the fastest sections of the day to run down Buffalo River (who goes around favourite later in the day). There looks to be some speed in this race on paper, Windstorm is drawn to sit just in behind them and go straight past them in the straight when Pikey hits the button. Too good to be true? We shall see. I believe he should be odds on and is my best for the day.
Selection: Windstorm @ $2.20
Race 4 – 1200m Plume Stakes
I found this race to be one the toughest of the day, plenty of chances. Hard to argue with the form of Felicia at the moment, last start controlling the race on speed and doing it easily. The big question is do we forgive Lyre, seemed to have the perfect set up in that same race and was hot favourite. Bombed the start and then got onto heals. Could easily forgive, but hasn’t won for a long time. Xilong trialled super over in SA, has excellent stats first up and over the distance, could easily make a case for her with form behind Gytrash. For the exotics could easily throw in Exhilerates & Parma.
Selection: Xilong EW @ $6/$2.30
Race 5 – 1100m Schillaci Stakes
Key scratching in this race is the impressive Alfa Oro, connections waiting for a more suitable race next Saturday. Another tricky race here with 7 runners in single figures. Diamond Effort was a big run when not having the best luck but still finishing 2L behind Pippie in the Moir. Third up, looks ready to peak. Dirty Work looks to have the standout Sydney form lines, finishing close up to Gytrash/Nature Strip before chasing home Classique Legend. Order of Command goes well track and trip, will appreciate the weight relief after lugging 62kg first up. Certainly can’t rule out a group 1 performer like Hey Doc.
Selection: Dirty Work @ $3.90
Race 6 – 2000m Caulfield Stakes
Small field of 6 runners go around here. Can they beat Russian Camelot? Let’s be honest, probably not. Interesting to note that Arcadia Queen has the bar plates off, which suggests they have finally figured out her feet issues. Hopefully we get to see the best of her.
Selection: Russian Camelot $1.60
Race 7 – 1600m Thousand Guineas
This race looks to be a mouth-watering clash between two star fillies. Hungry Heart comes down from Sydney on the quick back up after breaking a lot of punter’s hearts last week. I really like the addition of blinkers for this girl, she just has the tendency to wander a bit at times so hopefully this will sharpen her up. Instant Celebrity is building a nice picket fence with 4 wins on the trot. Hard to fault anything she has done, she was super last start when reeling them in from the back whilst running the fastest L600 of the day. I think we might see HH in front of IC coming into the straight so she will have to be good to run her down. Personal is the value, loved her closing sections last start and she looks primed for this trip third up.
Selection: Hungry Heart @ $3.40 – Saver Personal @ $17
Race 8 – 1600m Caulfield Guineas
This race sets up as a Melbourne vs Sydney duel. On paper it appears the Sydney form does look stronger, but this looks a very even bunch and an open race. Ole Kirk comes up favourite after a big win in the Golden Rose. Tagaloa was only 2L off Behemoth last start which is super form, maps well, stable very confident. Mo’Unga is the interesting runner. Hasn’t done a thing wrong, winning 3/3. Been unlucky in his last 2 starts and shown a super turn of foot to win impressively. Looks like he will eat up the mile. Hasn’t beaten a lot so far, but hasn’t had the chance. I think he can certainly measure up to these and is over the odds.
Selection: Mo’Unga EW @ $7/$2.50
Race 9 – 1600m Toorak Handicap
Buffalo River was brave in defeat first up when he was just run down by Windstorm. He looked to possibly be a little underdone in the closing stages, so will have come on from that. Stable have said they want to let him run out in front which is great news, I believe that is when he is at his best. Junipal blitzed them last start on a wet track, is in super form and any rain would help his chances even more. Cascadian is a bit of an enigma, you never know what you’re going to get. Last start in the Memsie was away slow then came home race fastest and was only 1.5L off Bohemoth. One day he will put it all together and blow them away. At double figures could be enticed there.
Selection: Buffalo River @ $4 – Saver Cascadian $10
Race 10 – 2400m Herbert Power Stakes
Orderofthegarter gets the perfect set up here, maps perfectly to get every possible chance and looks the winner on paper. There is no penalty for him winning, going into next week’s Caulfield Cup. But I just wonder why they are even running him. Let’s be honest, I think Danny O’Brien might know a little more than me about training stayers. Looks the winner but I don’t really want to be diving into the quote on offer, would be waiting for race day and hoping for better. Interesting value runner is Gallic Chiefain. He has won 4/7 third up and gets the blinkers on, this looks a set play for mine and I expect him to be running well. Was a long way back but had race fastest home in the Naturalism.
Selection: Orderofthegarter @ SP – Saver Gallic Chieftain @ $17
LEG 1 – 1, 3, 4
LEG 2 – 1, 2, 3, 6, 9
LEG 3 – 2, 4, 5, 13, 15
LEG 4 – 3, 5, 8, 9, 10
Good Luck Punters!