Josh’s NRL Best Bets – Round 16

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Analyst Joshua Reed will be providing his weekly NRL plays. Follow him on Twitter.

Current selections (and any quoted odds) are correct on Sportsbetting.com.au at the time of publishing.

Parramatta Eels (3rd) vs South Sydney Rabbitohs (7th)

27/08/2020 – Thursday Evening, 7:50pm at Bankwest Stadium

2 units – Parramatta Eels 1-12 @ $2.88

The Eels will be looking to build on their performance against the Storm whilst Souths look to make it win number 5 on the trot.

The Rabbitohs will lose Dane Gagai to a hamstring injury with rookie Steven Marsters coming in for him. This is a positive for the Eels as it takes away one of their attacking weapons, especially with Alex Johnston also out. The Eels defence is what seems to be winning them games and I see this as no different.

I am expecting a fight by Souths throughout but the Eels to be too good in the end. The Eels have won four of their past five at an average of 7 points, which makes the 1-12 a logical bet.

New Zealand Warriors (12th) vs Newcastle Knights (6th)

29/08/2020 – Saturday Afternoon, 3:00pm at Scully Park, Tamworth

2 Units – Newcastle Knights 1-12 @ $2.96

The Warriors got a hard-fought victory over the Bulldogs last weekend which made it three wins from their last four and they have been full of heart and tight in both wins and losses. Newcastle are going for three in a row after shutting out the Cowboys last week.

Newcastle lost Blake Green last week which now appears to be for the season, but the experienced Mason Lino comes in, which finally give Newcastle an accurate kicker. For the Warriors, Harris-Tavita returns as does Katoa which adds strength to their line-up.

Newcastle 1-12 is a nice bet as their attack is still clunky whilst each and every game the Warriors fight hard. In their last 5 games, they have won three and lost two with the average points difference being just six points.

I think the Knights in a close one.

Penrith Panthers (1st) vs Wests Tigers (9th)

29/08/2020 – Saturday Night, 7:35pm at Penrith Stadium

4 Units – Penrith Panthers 13+ @ $1.98

The Panthers juggernaut rolls on as they go for win number 11 in a row whilst the Tigers look to bounce back from their loss to the Roosters.

Both sides have key changes that contrast. The Tigers welcome back a handful players but no better than Harry Grant. Whilst the Panthers lose Koroisau and Kikau which does hurt their side, but like most good sides, they should be next one up.

The Tigers have been awful defensively averaging 32.4 points against them in their last five games whilst the Panthers average 29.6 points in attack in their last five games.

Panthers 13+ looks the bet here and I’ll be very surprised if its any less.