Adelaide V Collingwood

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There are 7 days left in the festival of footy, and what a showcase it has been. The Power have officially established themselves as the team to beat this year, the Cats have reminded everyone just how dangerous they can be, whilst teams like the Bombers and the Bulldogs have failed to capitalise upon their early season form, and find themselves out of the 8. There is a very important game on display tonight, so let’s get stuck into it

The 0-10 Crows will take flight at their home deck against a Collingwood outfit that has gotten back on the winners list against the Swans following two tough losses against the Eagles and the Dockers.

The Crows have once again fallen to a new low, by not only losing, but losing by high margins. They showed promise in the four game stretch between rounds five and eight, being competitive against the Dockers, Eagles, Saints and nearly scalping a win against the Bombers, ultimately losing by 3 points.

Many looked at this form and thought they were a genuine chance to get their first win against a Kangaroos team that were missing Brown and Polec, but they failed in remarkable fashion, succumbing to a 69 point belting, followed by a 51 point loss to the Demons.

Their midfield is being dominated in every important area. In their last 3 games, they have lost the clearance count, the inside 50 count and the disposal account. Following on from the disposal count, they have lost the contested possession count in their last two weeks by an average of 23, and have lost the uncontested possession count in their last two weeks by an average of 50.5.  These woes have directly translated into the forward line, ranking Adelaide 18th in terms of goals scored.

They have made 5 changes for this match. Most notably, key defensive players Kelly and Talia being omitted and managed, respectively. Brodie Smith however is a massive in, and must have a big game for the Crows to be any chance.

Collingwood managed to find their first win in 3 rounds after a tough slog against the competitive Swans, ending in a remarkable banana goal by Daicos to seal the game. This marked the first time in three games that they won the clearance count, led by Braidon Sier who amassed 8 of them to go with his 23 disposals.

They have been forced to make 6 changes of their own for this game, headlined by Elliott, Moore, Hoskin-Elliott and Treloar. This will mean that they will be without a large proportion of their best 22 when you throw in the injured Pendlebury, De Goey and Howe.

The Pies recorded 91 more disposals then the Swans last round, which ended up being the third-highest differential this season. Not surprisingly, in their last two losses, they lost the disposal count by 13 and 27, and then in the two weeks before that, they won the disposal count by 41 and 26. This indicates that they play best when they have control of the ball, but with all their outs piling up, will they have enough firepower?

The system of Collingwood should prevail in this matchup, but if the Crows are to beat a top eight team this season, then this is their best chance. I am not confident enough in the Crows to tip them for a win, but I do think it will be close and a line bet on Adelaide would be a solid play.


Collingwood to win @ 1.23

Adelaide +19.5 @ 1.88