Ben’s Best – 11th July 2020

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Form analyst Ben Beare gives his daily bets for Sportsbetting.com.au. Follow him on Twitter.

Odds are correct on Sportsbetting.com.au at the time of publishing.

MOE R1 #3 KOKO CONNECTION  $4.95   #11  DEEP MIRROR $8.30

Koko Connection put in a better performance at Moe last start, when running 3rd behind Wunambal and Frisson. Both those gallopers have gone straight to town and go around in the first at Caulfield today. DEEP MIRROR ran really well first up at Ballarat at big odds against the older gallopers. The winner Catadude franked the form by winning yesterday up in grade and the 2nd horse Hunka Hunka Harry goes well enough to win a maiden. Deep Mirror looks good each way odds.

MOE R2 #11  WILLYGOOD  $4.05 ROUGHIE  #15  MOSHELLE DE CLASSE $34.00

Pretty frustrating watching the odds come up $4 for Willygood after she opened $40’s last time. We move on though and she must be a chance again after beating the well performed Not Enough Effort in a Sale jump-out. I thought Moshelle De Classe ran ok on debut after covering ground wide without cover. She was then disappointing at Ballarat but gets another chance with the tongue tie going on. #6 LOCO MOJO also goes ok and can be included in exotics.

MOE R3 #8  TAKATOKA $1.60

This gelding looks very hard to beat here. He went well first up off a long break to run 2nd behind Cabinho at Sale. Cabinho then went to Flemington and was not beaten far in a strong race, won by Walking Flying. The 3rd placed horse Tovolo Gap has come out and won and same can be said for the 4th placed horse Queen of Tarts. #7 OLYMPIC POWER looks the danger, has ability but has not shown it race day yet. Gear change could help, couple dollars eachway in case the fav has no luck.

ROSEHILL R1 #2  NORTH PACIFIC $2.10

This colt trialled behind the Golden slipper winner, Farnan at Warwick Farm and was not placed under any pressure. He travelled better than stablemate Doubtland who has gone on to win a group 3 race.  He then bumped into the Golden Slipper winner on race day, running 3rd but was quickly put out to the spelling paddock. He looks to have returned in good order, making ground late in the recent trial under his own steam. #10 TIGHT ROPES has some ability and looks some value at odds if wanting to have a saver.

ROSEHILL R7 #8  NOBLE BOY $5.40

I do not usually bet/tip when they are well exposed, and this guy is with seven wins to his name. The recent trial was very eye catching though, the winner of the trial Rosina Kojonup is a fast horse and this guy was able to absorb that speed and really motored through the line.

CAULFIELD R1 #6 FRISSON $14.20

Worth something each way I think here. He went poorly on debut at Mornington but then looked to jump-out well with the speedy Fresh when the blinkers went on. He then raced much better at Moe with the blinkers on when running 2nd behind Wunambal. Wunambal runs around here too but I do not think there should be that much between them.

CAULFIELD R5 #4  WICKLOW TOWN $9.60

Turning into a real winner this guy, now going for four in a row this preparation. He savaged the line second up at Mornington to nail the leader Terrace House right on the line. His hunger to win then got him over the line at Geelong, carrying the big weight, beating a progressive field. Make sure they can run on in the previous races before having a bet.

CAULFIELD R6 #7  CARNAMAH $13.20     #13  RESOLUTE LAD $20.00

Tough ask for these two but worth something small. CARNAMAH looks a progressive stayer and won at short odds last start, breaking the maiden status at Ballarat. He should appreciate the step up in distance and gets some good amount of weight off. RESOLUTE LAD took much longer to win the maiden than I expected but now that he has, he might be able to go on with it. The distance will not be an issue and he also gets some weight off from the last start win.

CAULFIELD R8 #10 BIG BOY’S GIRL $22.00

I thought she would run well on debut after trialling and jumping out well against well performed horses. She then showed good natural speed to prove too good for the opposition there at Swan Hill. You will imagine if she jumps well again, they will go forward and if there is any advantage to be on speed, she could give a good kick at odds.

WYONG R2 #1  HONEY GO LIGHTLY $3.00

I thought she was disappointing at Newcastle but the previous two runs on heavy ground were good. This does not look a strong race.

WYONG R5 #2 SKY LAB $9.50

Found this two-year-old when watching the replays yesterday for Don’tforgetmonica. Now Don’tforgetmonica was very disappointing yesterday but I still loved the way this gelding motored through the line on debut and should love the step up in distance here. I think the winner of that race Cecilia is above average and the 2nd placed horse has won since.

GAWLER R8 #4  THE NATURAL $2.50

Forget she went around last start. She was constantly restrained and pulled up with a slow recovery. Jump-outs were good going into that first up run. If they let her run, she should be in it for a long way. #8 RENOUF comes out of a nice race at Geelong and looks next best.

COWRA R1 #3 THE TAPSTER $5.60

Trialled ok at Queanbeyan and then was disappointing on debut but did sit wide early. Been given time and no recent trial.

COWRA R4 #4 FLING $1.80

Impressive when winning on NSW debut. Won with something in hand and this does not look a strong race.