Ben’s Best – 21st April 2020

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Form analyst Ben Beare gives his daily bets for Sportsbetting.com.au. Follow him on Twitter.

Odds are correct on Sportsbetting.com.au at the time of publishing.

Nowra R1 #1  Thrive in the Home $4.65

This son of Pluck has been around the money but hasn’t been able to break through for a win. Before changing trainers and going for a spell, he was a runner up at his past two starts. The race at Mudgee when he finished 2nd to Tourmaster rated well on the clock for a maiden and the horse that finished 3rd Brother Bassy has subsequently won his past two starts. He resumed at Queanbeyan under the care of Tommy Wong and didn’t get the best of luck. B Ward the rider of Aradhana tried to cross at the 600m mark but wasn’t fully clear of Thrive in the Home and he was interfered with. I like that he has drawn barrier 2 here, Brandon Griffiths can be positive from the gate and take up the running. He should have a fitness edge on his main rivals who are debutants.

Nowra R2 #2  Deep Gold $4.55

This filly comes out of the same race as Thrive in the Home, so we should get a good guide there. She had two trials before that debut, with the first under a big grip from the jockey Jeff Penza. He definitely looked to be not allowing her to win the trial or stretch out. The second trial she was asked for more of an effort, but it was behind a very speedy mare called Kylease. The run at Queanbeyan on debut was full of merit, she was wide throughout over the 900m. She still managed to fight on and finish 3rd and suggest she will improve greatly with a rise in distance.

Scone R1 #4   Shukkas $5.10

I was taken by this grey filly’s trial at Scone. She was slow to muster speed out of the gates but once given a few niggles she quickly hunted up the rail to contest the lead. In the straight she was under riding but so was the opposition, including the eventual winner Kool Vinnie, who is much better than maiden grade. The 3rd horse Sir Clooney had already been to the races and won and the 5th placed Rubble had won his previous start, a benchmark 58. I expect Mitchell Bell will take the filly forward, permitting she doesn’t completely miss the start and if she can show that speed again, she will take a stack of running down over the 900m.

Ballarat R2 #6   Tycoon Thunder $11.20

It’s been a while since this colt has been to the races. He didn’t look to set the world on fire on debut at Sale but had excuses, racing very greenly throughout. The race rated very well for maiden class and the form was franked with the 3rd and 4th placed horses subsequently winning. I think we will see a much better horse this preparation. The blinkers went on in his last jump-out at Mornington and I was impressed by the way he joined in with the much better performed Our Gladiator in the concluding stages.