Ben’s Best – 18th April 2020

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Form analyst Ben Beare gives his daily bets for Follow him on Twitter.

Odds are correct on at the time of publishing.

Ararat R1 #4 Raysim $4.45

This gelding has a total of three jump-outs, that I could find. The first two were nothing special, finishing at the rear in a Caulfield jump-out for the first outing and then he sat in a forward position at Cranbourne but threw the head around, finishing towards the rear again. The third jump-out at Caulfield was much more positive. He sat on-pace with the Maher & Eustace trained Lassiter’s Lode and looked to match motors with him, while there was a few behind under-riding. Lassiter’s Lode had bolted in, winning a maiden by 4.5L on debut and since that jump-out has subsequently finished a close-up 3rd at Kyneton, first-up.

Ararat R2 #4   Harpuna $2.85

The son of Kuroshio has looked good in all three trials. The first trial he was strong late over the 1000m and was closing on Just Zerene, the speedster from the McEvoy stable. The second trial he went over the line with River Severn, a colt I have been keen to see debut because he has looked very talented in multiple jump-outs prior to that trial with Harpuna. There were big margins back to the other horses in that trial, including subsequent winners, Carrie and Red Rossini. Lastly, in the third trial he beat home Pershing, already a maiden winner. Kusari finished back in 9th place and yesterday won a benchmark 70 at Cranbourne. The slight concern I have is the stable’s debutants often seem to improve a lot from their first run. Which is why I will also be having something on #8 Sir Peter at the current $13 on offer. Made good ground in a recent jump-out after a quiet ride.

Caulfield R9 #3  Ocular $5.10

I have been with this gelding every start in his short career and it would be silly for me to jump-off now.  I tipped him last start at Sandown when I thought he would be hard to beat. He found himself a mile back there as Craig Williams managed to control the speed on Golden Gorge in front. Once they straightened for home Williams perfectly snuck a break on the field while Ocular had to make a run out wide, still a mile back. He really motored in the straight, putting in a huge run to finish 2nd, running out of ground to pick the winner up. The extra 200m looks suitable and if Dwayne Dunn can have him positioned a tad closer than he was last start, he should be able to produce a big enough sprint to be in the finish.