Rail Position: True Entire Circuit
Dual Track Meeting: N
Track Type: Turf
Track Condition: Good 4
There is a lot of quality trainers now based at the Ballarat complex which assists in making this standalone meeting a quality one. There is no rain forecast between now and Saturday with some hot winds at the back of the week. This will no doubt mean they have to irrigate. Assuming it will be fair and not too on pace. Lovely big track – rail was out 6m last time but that was on heavy.
The fresh win from Persuader was good, can go again here. Ambleve is a winning chance and Jordy Childs is pretty handy when it comes to rolling forward on leaders drawn wide. Tahitian Dancer will be ridden cold from that draw I think and be closing late. Prefer more on place line for that reason.
Bam’s On Fire will be popular here. Lightly raced type who jumped out well and best ratings have her the one to beat. She maps nicely midfield off the fence and is clear top pick. I Did It Again can be frustrating but can run a race fresh. Prefer more on place line. Happy to be against Prince Of Caviar again. This is tougher than last start.
Verdict: Bam’s On Fire
A very even benchmark staying race. The best ride, or the ride with the most initiative is often winning these type races. Saddle The Sun is top pick. Racing in good form with a gun jockey booked on his home deck. Defibrillate is up to this but we do pay a premium in a race that has some consistent metro performers. Creedance is next best but I do think he is short enough currently.
Verdict: Saddle The Sun
A staple on Cup Day is the Magic Millions classic. I am expecting Rathlin to improve off that Flemington run and be a leading contender here. Good jockey booked given a soft time in recent jump-out and has always shown promise. Euphoric Summer’s form lines stack up well for this. Leading jockey booked and has a nice map. Obvious danger. Think they are the two. I do note Soul Obsession did trial rather well leading into her debut here.
The top weight Can’t Be Done here looks very hard to beat. Trialled well before a good run first-up. Well placed in a set-weights and penalties race, maps perfectly stalking the speed and is the one to beat. Zorro’s Dream will be closing on him late as will Rocking Eagle.
Verdict: Can’t Be Done
Bumper Blast is rather promising with a good turn of foot. On the way up but still a prep or two off his best and up in weights and likely spots them a big start here on a firm track. O’Tauto default top pick but would have liked a more top level jockey for the assignment. Good ‘n’ Fast will bob up and win one of these races one day. Too talented not to have the penny drop.
Capacity field and a lot of chances here. Bravo Tango trained at track and rated highly but has drawn barrier 20 and will carry 62kgs. Marcel From Madrid gets a lovely run from the map as do rivals Notio, Over Exposure and Debt Collector. The chances certainly do not end there but I like the run Notio is going to get a lot. Midfield on a moderate speed off fence blending into the race.
The feature of the day, the Ballarat Cup. Fifty Stars suited back at Handicap level I fancy. Giving slow horses 6kg a lot better than meeting fast ones at the same weight. Dr Drill gets a soft run along the fence and was top rater on the computer. Harbour Views I am not convinced on at 2000m just yet in a decent race. Happy to be against especially if the early market is a guide. Hang Man to close late, needs luck though.
Verdict: Fifty Stars
Good race. Ef Troop at his best (which he is weighted for) obviously a leading chance but just how well he is going I am not sure. Li’l Kontra sure to be popular, promising type on the way up and is top pick but short enough. Hawker Hurricane gets a nice run and I love the strategy the Freedman camp have taken with King Of Hastings coming back for this.
Verdict: King Of Hastings
Super betting race to finish the day with plenty of chances. Esperance ticks all the boxes here. Drop in weight and at perfect distance from a low draw with C Williams on. Ready to win! That low draw for a potential leader will put Great Again under pressure throughout. Milwaukee away from his home deck is rare while Tavisan will run well again. Just think Esperance will wear him down late.