Track: At the time of writing no rail position has been set for Tuesday and with the showers hitting the track prior to racing on Saturday we need to wait and see before we make any bold assessments on how it will play. I will say though that it is usually not as bad as the media pump it up to be in terms of ‘wet track’ form. Ok, onto the Tuesday betting card.
Race 1 – G3 Darley Ottawa Stakes
The babies kick off Cup Day with just three of the 16 runners having been to the races before. Muntaseera has been going well at the jump-outs. Proper speedy type with the right jockey engaged for that. Unblushing needed a scrub in her jumpout but they ran slick time. Of the raced runners Divine Caprice on top with the Magic Man jumping on.
Verdict: Muntaseera @ $5.00
Race 2 – Grinders Coffee Roasters Trophy
William Thomas steps to 1400m and does so giving them so weight here. Ticks a lot of boxes otherwise, comes down to price but at the $4.40 early quote I am looking deeper. East Indiaman at his pet trip and maps just perfectly. Dry track needed for him. Phaistos resuming at 1400m who is on the way up still I fancy. Well placed here, expect with 54kg’s jockey Craig Williams is positive from barrier 8.
Verdict: Phaistos @ $3.10 – saving East Indiaman if track is Good
Race 3 – TAB Trophy
Sure Knee brings the right room and sets up well. Drawn 13 over the 1700m will give McEvoy some decisions to make early. Het stablemate Romani Girl drawn even wider but can win. Shrouded In Mist will SP big odds and can create a blowout late. Sheezdashing is a non-winner but well placed and ready to run well. Prefer her to place.
Verdict: Sheezdashing place @ $3.80
Race 4 – The Macca’s Run
A few ran at Moonee Valley on Friday and went poorly so they may come out here. Shared Ambition is short in the market and for good reason. I wouldn’t take $1.70 but would take $2. Kentucky Diva will likely get back in the run but can fill the placings as can Sin To Win who I think will go forward and comes from a strong race.
Race 5 – Schweppervescence Plate
Mclaren is well placed here but still overrated I think and want to be against at early prices. Hawker Hurricane on home track and at pet trip. Dirty Work might be one of the best 3YO maidens in Australia (Group 3 placed) but needs to aim up now. Athiri suited back to 1000m here and Sizzlefly a good chance as well
Verdict: Athiri @ $6.90
Race 6 – G3 Jim Beam Stakes
Bella Martini placed ideally here and maps sweetly from low draw – she is in the right class to win if she can produce her best ratings from better races. Jamaican Rain will appreciate exactly that – has some huge ratings on wet ground. La Tigeresa the other key contender who is on the up and no issues handling wet track. Market has found her in the early play. Sweet Scandal next best.
Verdict: Bella Martini EW @ $7.10
Race 7 – G1 Lexus Melbourne Cup
There is some criticism in the press with so many Internationals in the field but I for one, love it. What a race and with the eyes of the world on our carnival, we should embrace it. Downdraft was superb on Saturday and weights wise is right up to this. Only needs to hold to be there abouts. Mer De Glace and Constantinople are big winning chances but at current prices I’m looking elsewhere. Finche is the same boat as those. Exposed good form for all three. Il Paradiso draws out but fits the ideal profile – maps sticky and is short enough now. Magic Wand will push across from out wide and step in trip should sit on a moderate speed. Chance but obviously needs luck not to get posted. Youngstar a good roughie, too. Top race. Good luck punters!
Verdict: Downdraft @ $15.60
Race 8 – LR Furphy Plate
Cascadian unlikely to be here? If he is though, it is the right race. 1800m might be optimal distance for him. Junipal drops in grade nicely and is still down in the weights. That suits. Yulong Prince looks a great each-way bet – talented type who hasn’t produced his best as of yet. Step down in grade suits and can be strong late. Dealmaker going well but more a place chance I think.
Verdict: Yulong Prince EW @ $10.20
Race 9 – LR MSS Security Sprint
What a cracking race this is! Chances galore, though. Parsifal is flying, Tactical Advantage drops in grade and gets the perfect run – step to 1200m should be fine. Smart Coupe a lovely fresh horse that scored first-up in good fashion at Geelong, likes the straight though can go on with it? Milwaukee loves the straight too, often well backed on his home deck. Royal Symphony back at the races is absolutely awesome to see. Forgotten horse with huge talent. Prefer to see how he goes at a distance that will be short of his best.
Verdict: Tactical Advantage EW @ $8.90
Race 10 – LR The Hong Kong Jockey Club Stakes
Xilong is top rater but looks short enough I think. Pretty Brazen next best but the same boat. Like her acceleration but tough ap and wrong jockey for that map. Betcha Flying maps sweetly and will run well I fancy. At about the right price. Mayaaseh a little more sticky from the draw but she is a really nice filly off a sound run. Ratings wise, she measures up for this.
Verdict: Mayaaseh EW @ $12.20