Rail Position: True
Dual Track Meeting: N
Track Type: Turf
Track Condition: Good 4
Track: While we expect the track to play well there is a lot of wind around Sydney this weekend and this will likely be more of a factor than the actual track condition. Generally speaking slight preference to those settling on or near the speed.
Nash on a fit Waterhouse runner who maps well near the speed, first use of the track should favour those on speed very hard to pot here. Thought the early price was fair as well for Faretti. Special Snap has ability but spots a start unless McDonald chooses to press on from the wide alley. Key part to the race. Betcha Flying next best rater but will almost certainly be back in the ruck.
Good to see a country battler like Messara with a runner at a short quote in the Highway… Luna Mia ticks the boxes here and is our clear top pick. Fair Dinkum ok each-way odds but will likely need to find the three-wide line with cover to figure. Coup De Main likely presses on from out wide to race on the speed.
Verdict: Luna Mia
We still haven’t seen the best of Mushaireb on Aussie soil but his best form in the UK was on wet tracks so perhaps just needs to strike the right tracks in the Autumn. He is a chance but don’t think we will see his best until genuine soft track again. Thy Kingdom Come up on speed is the top rater here for Nash. Hard to pot. Mr Reckless can track that speed and I have seen worse 50-1 pops go around.
Verdict: Thy Kingdom Come
Special Reward rates highly here but there is a bit of a speed battle on paper. Clenton may get stuck out wide and that has tempered our bet a little bit. Ljungberg can drop in behind the hot tempo and from the draw should be off the fence with cover. Catesby and Junglelized also candidates to get the right run but prefer the latter due to jockey booking.
Miss Invincible gets the gun run in behind the speed here for Nash. If Dance Hall Girl steps slow he can lead also. Jen Rules settles midfield and is a winning chance as is Lisdoonvarna who will likely get her back in the run.
Verdict: Miss Invincible
Rosehill Gold Cup worth 500k and most people wouldn’t even know its on. Interesting. Chapada is a tease but is well placed here and maps well. Dealmaker going well but tricky draw with provincial jockey on is a worry. Antilles rates highly but thought the early price was tight enough. Really keen on Tally here who can lead or stalk the speed depending on what happens early. Gun jockey booked and at his optimum distance is ready to peak.
The two I’ve got in single figures are Brutal and Arcadia Queen. I see limited value in the race outside of Never No More who is $34 at time of writing. Sunlight in a marginal spot where she is very hard to mark but on speed factor and her tenacity are big ticks. Arcadia Queen gets the gun run and she is a freak but the uncertainty is how she come through the Everest and whether she can catch Brutal who will be bowling along up near the speed and a very tough horse who is still untapped.
Verdict: Trifecta with Brutal, Arcadia Queen to run 1st or 2nd and Never No more and Sunlight in for 3rd.
Pierata is the second best Open WFA sprinter in Australia right now so deserves top billing. Expect Tommy Berry rides him fairly cold here. Home Of The Brave gets the gun run and is big odds at $15 in the early play. No knock on the other two Godolphin runners Trekking and Deprive but they are well enough found. Champagne Cuddles a chance too but rather keen HOTB at the price.
Verdict: Home Of The Brave EW
Brock Ryan rides the favourite in the last Outrageous and he has a fairly easy task with not much speed in the race he can roll out and position top four. Gets into the right spot and will be hard to beat. Charretera also maps well and is second top rater. Juventus a chance but short in early market.