Racepal Moonee Valley Preview – 26th October 2019 – Cox Plate

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Rail Position: True Entire Circuit
Dual Track Meeting: N
Track Type: Turf
Track Condition: Good 4
Weather: Showers
Penetrometer: 4.65

Rail stays true after Manikato night so keeping an eye on how it played Friday will be a good starting point for punters. Also keep an eye on the rain and winds. Too early to predict anything now.

Race 1

Rather tricky race given how many are fresh and how many are probably going to be better over further. It’s A Deel has been smashed in early betting but a Dundeel fresh over 1000m? Yikes. Idea’s Man an expensive colt who jumped out well and top pick on projected ratings. Mildred next best who is up and flying early. Needs to bounce well from the low draw.

Verdict: Idea’s Man

Race 2

Small field scamper here where Esperance is the clear top rater and it comes down to price. Trialling well, good fresh record and quality jockey booked. All Over Bosanova is class, but pays for it in weight. Prefer Fine Dane to finish 2nd to the Godolphin horse.

Verdict: Esperance

Race 3

Set weights fillies race that really suits Fascino who seems to be flying. Zahra sticks and she will be hard to beat. La Falaise also suited by a noted class drop and weight scale. Maps well if she can bounce and hold a spot. Aspect Ratio and Beauty Bolt also in the mix.

Verdict: Fascino

Race 4

On paper there is plenty of speed here. Don’ttelltheboss’ Loving Gaby form will appeal to punters. Especially if she wins on Friday! Wayupinthesky drawn wide and does race forward at times. Big decision for D Lane who is riding so well at the moment. Villami is top pick. Hope she eases a touch. Think she can bounce across and sit in the first four and let her class show late.

Verdict: Villami

Race 5

Condo’s Express has soft track and Moonee Valley form. Maps well and drops from a decent race after a freshen. Goes well here I fancy. Dirty Work a chance as are the two dual acceptors Hearty Lass and Ruuca. The other runner of note for me is Heyington Station who is still learning what it is all about and on the way up. Low draw may help him handle the Valley at first look.

Verdict: Condo’s Express

Race 6

The early favorite Battenburgh should find a nice spot near the lead. Weight scale suits given the races he comes from. Moonlight Maid suited last start and probably will get even further than this trip. Prefer her in the Oaks. Soul Patch next best and nearing his peak now.

Verdict: Battenburgh

Race 7

Great race! Strong Caulfield Cup SP suits Mr Quickie who has WFA form too. Hunting Horn and Downdraft both very capable imports. Really like Downdraft but the draw is sticky so can’t tip him on top. Humidor very interesting. Set for the Cox Plate but didn’t get a start and a testing tempo here may see him weak late over the extra trip.

Verdict: Mr Quickie

Race 8

Competitive WFA mile race for decent money. Lots of betting angles and different setups here. Potential speed from all angles with class WFA horses Gailo Chop and Dreamforce amongst those as is Cliff’s Edge and Rox The Castle. Sikandarabad maps so well stalking this bunch and thought he went well in the Toorak after going back. Goes well at the Valley too!

Verdict: Sikandarabad

Race 9

Well the quality is down but it is nice to have an open Cox Plate. If the rain comes, it really does shake things up a bit. Lys Gracieux is top pick but too short in the early market. True price somewhere between $4 and $5 depending on how much it rains. Avilius the forgotten horse who loves the sting out. Mystic Journey going well and Castelvecchio has a chance to go forward with the lightweight. Magic Wand the other key winning chance I think. Strong 2000m form in Europe, sting out no issue and testing tempo/pressure also suits.

Verdict: Avilius

Race 10

Amangirl backed in the early markets almost right away. Sure does map well. Handles softer tracks and at her pet trip. Music Bay is ready to peak I think. She trialled well leading into this prep and has been slightly disappointing, maybe the step to the mile is what she needs. Girl Tuesday sticky map but with Nash on maybe she rolls forward?

Verdict: Amangirl