Rail Position: True Entire Circuit
Dual Track Meeting: N
Track Type: Turf
Track Condition: Good 4
Rail True at the Valley under lights should play pretty fair I think. Obviously no disadvantage to settle close. Track should be perfect but keep an eye on the rain as that may result in the rail chopping out earlier than expected.
Good race to start with as expected, a busy map over the 1000m start. Amelia’s On Fire can run a number to challenge but gives weight. Would need to improve off the last win to win again. Hearty Lass and Ruuca I fancy will be better value who will be stalking the speed.
Verdict: Hearty Lass
Good race with the top two, Iconoclasm and Widgee Turf likely to hold plenty of market percentage. We are with the former as the more likely winner. Just comes down to price. Gold Fields is an interesting one, who is in well weight wise, hoping for double figures on him.
Fairly average race over the Cox Plate distance featuring some horses well past their previous peaks. Jaguary has a sticky map and not the jockey I would like on but is very capable and unlike most of these. On the way up still. Double You Tee is the main danger. Drawn barrier 10, Billy The Kid will need to be at his best to get a spot midfield. Mr Marathon Man rates ok but I don’t like where he will get in the run.
Can see Morrissy getting into a tricky spot here unless he bounces well. Talented horse with Willo on. Rated price of $2.90 for me with a full field. Celtic Blast is the map horse stalking the speed one off fence likely. Bella Vella and November Man in the mix as is Fill The Flute who needs to bounce well to find the front from barrier 9.
Verdict: Celtic Blast
Oceanex is a good mare but she is getting rather costly. $2.30 the first price I see and that is short. Greysful Glamour appeals much more at more than double the price. Finds a decent spot in the run near the speed on my map. Really keen Heart Of Grace here though. Double figure early quote is stealing value. Nice import who is still untapped and ready to roll through grades.
Verdict: Heart Of Grace and Greysful Glamour
Good sprint to prep for the Manikato this is. Parsifal looks short enough early on. Probably will face a wall of horses at the 300m mark and need some luck. William Thomas has the advantage of drawing wide and will likely get a nice cart into the race. Prefer him of the two fancied runners. Inn Keeper a chance but early price is short once again.
Verdict: William Thomas
Good betting race but a terrible field. Bivouac absolutely has to be top pick. Just comes down to what price you have him. The super low draw probably not ideal but Trope and Loving Gaby have enough holes in their resumes to not get excited about the early prices. The Bostonian probably maps as good as any of them and it is very unlikely he runs a bad race.
Muswellbrook drops in weight nicely and steps out to a good distance off a good win fresh. Has to be in the mix here. Cuba a chance but short enough in an open race. Reserve Street goes in as well. Form is stacking up well, holding form and does get the services of Ryan Moore if you don’t mind.