Racepal Rosehill Preview – 31st August 2019

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Meeting: Rosehill
Date: 31st August
Rail: +3m entire circuit
Weather: Fine
Track Condition: Soft 5

To check the latest odds, click here.

Track Expectations: A bit like Caulfield in the sense that there is an on speed preference. Rails in run more of a help over the longer trips. Possible to win from wide with cover in the sprints.

Little bit of rain around in the back half of this week. Anticipating a Soft track but will have to monitor the rain (and subsequent drying winds).

Key runners:

  • Bivouac couldn’t have been any more impressive demolishing his rivals first-up at Caulfield. This is a stronger race and he has gone up red figures! Must watch.
  • Yes Yes Yes has Everest ambitions but to gain one of the few slots left you’d think he would have to win here (he is 4/1) and then some… J Mac booked, big wraps on him!
  • Subedar showing all the traits of his sire thus far. Jumping from a maiden to win a BM70 he is now in an Open Saturday race and favourite. Market will have mixed opinions on him.

Ones to watch:

  • Grey Lion has been working the house down and loved his recent trial. This assignment will likely be too sharp for him but he is a horse to keep following this spring.
  • Bleu Roche resuming for a new, very smart camp. Trialled well behind to the rocket Libertini. Didn’t come up last prep but has loads of talent.

Race 1

Typical lottery job highway! In an otherwise very even field on ratings, #1 Assault’N’Battery is a good solid starting point. He gets the jockey who rides frontrunners well, draws well enough to roll out and control the race from near the lead in typical Nash fashion. Small query on the 35 day gap between runs

Race 2

#5 Helga the obvious leader with a fitness base and well in at the weights after the claim. Looks capable of a peak run after a few solid repeat efforts. Mounting yard watch on #1 Re Edit and #2 Lady Cuvee who both resume off mini-spells. #7 Wimlah likely to race in a handy position for a stable that loves to be up on the pace.

Race 3

Open race. Can #5 Irukandji do something for the new stable? He was gelded before resuming and gets to a better distance range now.  #2 Thy Kingdom Come top pick but no value at the price. #11 Adana has had excuses both times in, however just one win in 15 starts makes her rather hard to like.

Race 4

Enough speed on paper for a 2000m race. #5 Costello maps absolutely perfect just off the pace stalking had he got a positive jockey change would have been a good bet…. #3 Monsieur Sisu loves it wet, so if we cop more rain than expected comes right into calculations. Tricky race!

Race 5

Race of the day! #2 Dubious can’t win, neither can #7 Royal Popcorn. The rest can though. $1.60 looks short enough for #3 Bivouac who has a potential flat run looming and faces stiffer opposition than he did when winning at Caulfield first-up.

Race 6

Tricky race with six horses resuming off breaks of at least five weeks. Fit horses might be the go #1 Sharaaoh is on a Melbourne Cup path. He can’t win today and can’t win over 3200m at Flemington in November, though. #9 Wolfe maps to lead, will be sharp enough and still on the way up – hard not to find! #6 Girl Tuesday next best, she is jumping 400m after a huge win at 1400m on a freshen. Drops a few kilos, gets a positive rider change and is bred to love the distance range. Really nice untapped horse.

Race 7

Big job to do for #5 Subedar who needs to make the Open Class jump today. Looks to be plenty of speed for Kerrin McEvoy to stalk, though. #1 Alligator Blood rated the wheels off first up this time around, faces a tricky draw and will need some luck but a horse on the rise for David Vandyke. #6 Maddi Rocks will improve sharply off her first-up second placing and does get a positive jockey change.

Race 8

Expecting a warm tempo here that will test a few at the end of the six furlongs. Subsequently #6 Beau Ideal looks a risk from a wide draw off a huge break. #12 Fasika needs to improve off what was achieved in first prep but has the talent to do so. Maps nicely as well. #2 Highland Beat not a bad fit roughie at 50-1+. #7 Desert Lord resumes but last run rated huge while #8 Haut Brion Her needs luck to win but the gun jockey helps!

Race 9

Perfect race to finish the day and blow people out of the quaddie! Lots of betting angles. #5 Bleu Roche is much better than she showed last prep. New stable now. Respecting her. On-speed horses #4 Sheriff and #3 Master Ash resume at odds. #2 Black Magnum can bounce back from last start failure but does lose a few points with jockey booking from that wide barrier. #9 God Of Thunder short enough at 7/2 in a big field from the wide draw.