Racepal Caulfield Preview – 31st August 2019

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Meeting: Caulfield
Date: 31st August
Rail: True Entire Circuit
Weather: Fine
Track Condition: Good 4

To check the latest odds, click here.

Track Expectations: Typical Caulfield. Australia’s best metropolitan betting track in our opinion. Fairly even with a slight advantage on speed in staying races and ‘up and off’ in the sprints meaning horses on speed but off fence, especially from the chute starts. Monitoring the wind which is currently in the 25-30km projected range which can play some games with jockeys and cause higher variance.

Key runners:

  • Surprised to see Alizee here when they said she would be kept to the sprinting trips only a few weeks ago. Getting to 1400m 2nd up not an ideal prep for a run-on type dropping back to the Everest so they may have given up hope on that.
  • Vega Magic has been well backed in all-in markets for the Heath. He looks to be up and flying off recent jump-out. If he repeats his Bletchingley run (1200m last year) he wins, but Ball of Muscle will make him work for it and is suited at 1100m.

Ones to watch:

  • Shotmaker very excited to see this beast return to the track. Really think he will be the surprise packet of the spring. Only a few starts and needs to get his rating up if he is to contend in the Group 1 3YO races.
  • King Of Hastings comes out of the same Cranbourne jumpout as Shotmaker and went better but did have more residual fitness for that testing track. Looks ready for a prep that will see him hit new peaks easily. Smart training camp too.

Race 1

Uninspiring race. Good luck to the bookies pricing it, dartboard job! #2 US Army Ranger is the class and he will improve sharply off that 1600m blowout first-up – but he would want to and has gone up big odds here! #6 Jinda a light weight, good young jockey (claiming) will be on pace at least. Wouldn’t take the shorts on any of these!

Race 2

Really hard not to like #16 Diamond Effort here who did enough first-up and will relish the move to 1200m and striking an easier race. #9 Sam’s Image has the right jockey to cross from the wide alley and own this race at odds. #13 Gododdin not hopeless and coming off a forgive run.

Race 3

No knock #4 My Pendant but don’t want to dive into the 6/4. Loved the trial of #2 Music Bay leading in and like the fact she is resuming over a distance that she can win at. #5 Shokora  is up and running, fit and will give them a number to beat but will likely need the race to rate down to win. #9 Bettyrae Ruby is relishing being held to the shorter trips and can make the jump to this grade.

Race 4

Melbourne Cup aspirant #3 Steel Prince resumes from a short spell but has gone up very short! Wouldn’t take 3/1 with stolen money. Looking to target the likes of #8 Guizot off a great win and #13 Super Titus who did enough first-up and will eat 1700m. #14 Benitoite looks short enough and would need double figures to consider.

Race 5

Top race with decent speed expected! #7 Shotmaker looks overs as does #9 Missile Mantra – both highly untapped on first preps. Happy to take on #1 Dubious who I think will go backwards this prep. No major knock on #3, #4 or #5 at prices but you can’t back them all!

Race 6

Nice race! Loved the trial of Streets Of Avalon on the syntho. Watch for him at 1400m later in prep – today will be too slick. Market looks to have got this race spot on. #4 Vega Magic to mow down #1 Ball of Muscle late.

Race 7

Always an interesting race the Cockram and this is no different. #13 Pippie and #11 Sylvia’s Mother are both untapped and very promising horses. Of the rest, #6 Aloisia trialled as good as she ever has last week and can run a race at big odds if there is a decent speed battle early.

Race 8

#1 Hartnell gets the gun run and off a sound platform impossible to see him not running well. #5 Scales Of Justice has the advantage of that extra run and looks set to peak, hard to beat. #11 Alizee looks very short as does #9 Begood Toya Mother, expect they ease.

Race 9

#1 Night’s Watch trialled so so well. This is just a warm up, though. #2 Iconoclasm will appreciate the bump in distance and return to Caulfield. #18 Age Of Chivalry rates strongly but jockey D Lane faces a choice of tactics from the wide barrier. Horse has shown versatility in the past.