DOOMBEN RACES 7&8 October 30, 2014 No Comments
No.3 SIR MOMENTS ($3.60). Is a very smart horse and had he drawn barrier 25 I would still tip him! Good horse EFarm would be way better but his class is pronounced.
No.1 ROCKET TO GLORY ($4.60). Will give a great sight. In form and has won over 1400m. Will run well.
No.2 BRAVE ALI ($14). Is a smart horse and was very consistent last time in.
No.8 ALDINI MIGHT ($14). Run 3rd or 4th at best. 2 runs in have been OK.
No.11 RUDY ($5.50). Is 2nd up but I really love him on wet tracks, that’s his big big advantage. I am doubting he can win but will include somewhere as he does have slight fitness advantage over 1st up horses.
No.3 SARI ($15). Is drawn to need luck and will sit mid-field possibly 3 wide and I am hoping for cover. Good at this distance … $34.00 available!
No.5 LONDOHERO ($4). Is very good 2nd up and has been a horse I have bet on often … too often? But he has been kind on occasions.
No.6 SOUTHERLY ($12). Was scratched last week and is drawn poorly again! Could hit the line and $19 now.
No.9 COMACINA ($6). Has won 2 from 2 fresh so with a good trainer I have to include. Formlines are OK for this.
SELECTIONS: 3-5-6-9 tough race. Backed big prices here.
No. 6 RARE FRAGRANCE ($4.60). Will be hard to beat if leads. 17th starter
No.7 SWIPELINE ($4.60). Should go forward and be hard to catch if that’s what they do. They should do this.
No.2 SAID COM ($6.50). Is back! Trialled well 1st time then girl did nothing on him 2nd up in trial then very quiet trial recently. If in mood and track not too hard could run a race? Has good fresh record. Fascinating runner this time in. Will it be his last prep in Sydney? Will he click after early promise? This is not a hard race to win and he has done more than any of these. Just depends on whether he wants to be a racehorse, a serious race horse!
No.3 FINE BUBBLES ($5.50). Will sit forwards and that could be the spot to be.
SELECTIONS: 6-7-2-3. How much pace they pour on will tell all, 3,6,7 could all show pace, and I want them to … badly!
No.15 Shall TUMULT ($7) grandeur, panoply, prepared loud noises … stand equal to a quiet heart? Loves this distance being the key, Two-from-two at 1100m. It’s a specialist distance. Snowden such a good trainer.
No.10 SHIRAZ ($5). Heavily backed 1st up and failed to win. First-up form was strong but now 2nd up after not winning. Did he miss a gallop? Three wins this trip, big chance.
No.4 CHARGE ACCOUNT ($7). Has had 2 handy runs to date and should be ready to fire. No big $ for him this time in and they are a big betting stable.
No.3 KUDERO ($15). Looks a top chance to run 4th.
MACKINNON STAKES October 29, 2014 No Comments
* Prices assessed prior to Side Glance scratching
No.1 SIDE GLANCE (Scratched)
No.2 HAPPY TRAILS ($9 – $7). Really unlucky in Cox Plate. I can’t believe how little was made of him missing the start and beaten less than a length. I thought should have won. Oliver sticks and it might be third time lucky. Needs a good ride from wide gate … that’s Oliver’s job!
No.3 FORETELLER ($10 – $8). Another who ran very well last week. I still can’t believe Silent Achiever stopped me from winning heaps! Boss won Underwood on him.
No.4 HAWKSPUR ($17 – $41). Not keen on him at all. Dropping back in distance always scares me, weight jump also. Cup run was good but I am risking him. Gotta risk some of them!
No.5 MORIARTY ($21 – $41). Like Hawkspur dropping back from Cup and jumping 4kg in weight. I say can’t have. Has some good numbers but I just can’t put him ahead of others.
No.6 BRAMBLES ($12 – $14). Beat Big Memory here over 1700m with a big weight but the big weight increase will find him out I hope. Has been going really well and his Cup run was excellent. Might be holding my breath at 200m and bowing my head afterwards but leaving him out. I know he will give a sight.
No.7 MOURINHO ($31 – $26). Cruelly left out of Cox Plate I thought. It was wrong decision. I think he will surprise a few people with how well he will go. I have him about 6th pick but over the odds. Going well.
No.8 HE’S YOUR MAN ($5.50 – $17). Beat Kingdoms 2 starts ago which hurt me badly, I am still walking with a slight limp after that. I think that form line is 2-3 lengths under what is required. I am taking him on. He is favourite… but not with me!
No.9 FARRAAJ ($17 – $21). British! (remember that horse British!! Gee I had some misplaced adventures on him many years ago. A few nice times too). Loves the distance which matters, wide gate? I just do not know.
No.10 STAR ROLLING ($51 – $201). Way outclassed I think. Rolling away from him.
No.11 SPILLWAY ($26 – $81). Could not possibly have him. I will spill blood if he wins. I will drain blood from my head naturally and weirdly if he wins.
No.12 AMRALAH ($12 – $13). No doubt wound up for this by Williams team. Chad Schofield rides which I find interesting. If they have bought into him they must like him. So you have to respect their opinion and the horse.
No.13 CRITERION ($6 – $11). I said in Cox Plate he would be looking for longer but he’s back in distance so if I am to be true to my opinion I can’t have at all. Big track an added help I admit. Was not a bad run last week I admit. Could hurt me but I am leaving out of 1st 3.
No.14 COSTUME ($61 – $61). Won in NZ as a horse not expected to so either it has clicked and they think she is right now, or…. mmmmm she did finish a few lengths behind Silent Achiever and that’s all you can go on so I have to leave out of 1st 3.
No.15 RISING ROMANCE ($5.50 – $9). Another NZer who has been running very well over here. Jumps 3kg on terrific Cup effort when a great second. Back in journey but could make it interesting.
My Box Standout Trifecta is 2,3/2,3,6,9,12/2,3,6,9,12
Backing 2 & 3
No.1 HAMPTON COURT (Market price $2.70 – my computer says $3.30). Beat the best Sydney had to offer and seeing I say Sydney horses better than Melbourne’s, must be hard to beat.
No.2 MOONOVERMANHATTAN ($8 – $8). Was pretty strong at Moonee Valley but this ain’t MV where things can get confusing when comparing to open spaces but he does have ability, seems to be improving.
No.3 PRENTICE ($251 – $1001). Horse from Bunbury who seems to have deluded itself as beaten 16 lens last start and 8 lengths before that? Makes no sense being here.
No.4 FIREHOUSE ROCK ($26 – $41). Gets a better run here than last time here. Is the best Hayes horse but I doubt can figure in 1st 3. Poorly named being out of Bird Of Fire by Stravinsky. His fire bird suite was game changing back in early 20th century. He had people jumping off Russian cliffs so when you know this Fire House Rock is tacky name. I could not back him.
No.5 MAGICOOL ($21 – $13). Might be a good Flemington horse as he beat Atmosphere!! That’s the form line I like. Might be a good place bet for tricks!!
No.6 LOTION ($67 – $201). For Hayes to run this horse, well it just astounds me.
No.7 NOZOMI ($26 – $26). Handy win over preferment who flashed late, but too late. I personally doubt the form lines. Leaving out.
No.8 LIGHT UP MANHATTAN ($21 – $34). Improved at Caulfield after weakish at Flem. Four runs in, but I still doubt him.
No.9 BONDEIGER ($10 – $8). Been backed by smart punters after handy late effort at MV when made up plenty of ground. Went well Geelong early doors and that suggests a big track is OK. Include in all bet types.
No.10 ROYAL STANDING ($67 – $201). Three runs here for nothing so go and stand on that if you can. Republicans might lay it on Betfair to their hearts content.
No.11 ATMOSPHERE ($11 – $6.50). Battled away at MV beaten, but went OK. That was 1st run for 3 weeks. Top class place bet. I am taking heavily the place in trifectas.
No.12 GOULDIAN ($26 – $41). Really bizarre to work out why he is here after only running over 1600m!! What don’t we know?? Won over 1600m at WFarm which means bugger all and now jumps 900m here!! After not running for 4 weeks illogical this so query him strongly??? Should be none but O’Shea might know something???
No.13 PREFERMENT ($5.50 – $16). His last 50m was flashing, but under hard riding and took 30om to get him going. Waller and Oliver but I doubt him myself. Has the Gouldian form lines in Sydney, very confusing indeed.
No.14 CUBAN FIGHTER ($41 – $81). Robbie Laing looks a genuine 40-1 chance.
No.15 SAN PADRE ($21 – $41). Tipped by smarties at MV and went like a camel. Form lines weak as beaten too far each time.
No.16 THE MIGHTY JROD ($81 – $151). Really hard to have. Only one handy run, to Nozomi so that makes me think that form line is no good!! I am leaving the JRod way out.
No.17 VERREAUX ($67 – $81). Beaten 4.4 lengths by Nozomi and seeing as I doubt that form I am him out as well. Nive name tho sounds like a Brel song. I highly recommend a song called la chanson de vieux amants on YouTube, spin you around like a record.
My SELECTIONS 1st 4: 1,9/1,9,11/1,2,4,5,9,11/1,2,4,5,9,11,12,13,17
BENDIGO CUP October 27, 2014 No Comments
Rated to a GOOD track
No.1 COUNT OF LIMONADE ($4.60 – $7.50). Beat Prince Of Penzance which won on Saturday blowing away more fancied horses. Seemed to win fair and square. With this fellow he seems to grow 4 legs on wet tracks!! So if track is wet he is hard to hold out, but if track is good, he is in strife. Gets run of race a bonus, up 2kg. Track conditions all important. If track good I doubt he can win.
No.2 ANCIENT KING ($31 – $26). Nice name but out of its kingdom it seems a bit lost. Would not be a total shock if improved a fair bit. Gets back and runs on. Not sure, maybe market moves might help. On form a bit hard to have.
No.3 MASSIYN ($6 – $5). Owned by the Williams’ and therefore you have to be respectful. His horses are all set to go this time of season. Went pretty well Friday night. Place chance looks promising.
No.4 ALI VITAL ($34 – $17). Got stitched up in Geelong Cup when fancied by me at least as a roughie. One placing this trip a worry. I have to incude as I backed him and included in tricks.
No.5 ORDER OF THE SUN ($2.10 – $3.60). Needs a good track and did win St Leger over 2800m so distance no worries. Won like a fair horse in Sydney when led and kicked away. Grand Marshal won on Saturday so form lines are confirmed. This is only slightly harder. Good track a must, or leave out. Secret teachings say if stays in gate 9 it’s in some trouble.
No.6 SURPASS ($15 – $61 if dry). Needs a flood to figure, weak run last start after handyish before that. No hope unless rains come from heaven.
No.7 BRING SOMETHING ($7.50 – $5). This is the horse that loves 2400m best having won 2-from-2 in weaker company. Raced behind Kushidasi in SA Derby. Should go well. Older now and maturing nicely. Betting on trusting in natural improvement.
No.8 KOUKRAM ($10 – $31). McEvoy horse set for this. Dunn rides a plus. I like Dunn. Only won its maiden 4 starts ago so that’s a bit scary and did get belted by Order Of The Sun last start. Probably hard to have. Price looks silly, but is a betting stable. That terrifies bookies.
No.9 CAVES ($81 – $71). Solid win at Seymour when burst clear late but beat unknown horses. Trained here a plus, but never placed here a minus!
SELECTIONS: E/W Bring Something is worth a small bet. If no.3 backed maybe save on it.
If track OK box up 2,3,4,5,7 … 30 bucks for 50%
ROSEHILL RACES 7&8 October 24, 2014 No Comments
RACE 7. NO 6 ABBASSO 3.50 IS THE BEST HORSE AND IF HE IS READY HE WILL WIN. MARKET SHOULD GIVE A GUIDE. W2ELL PLACED HERE, ESPECIALLY IF READY.
NO 7 MAXIMILLIAN 5.50 IS DRAWN OUT WITH ABBASSO HAS TACTICAL SPEED IF WANTS TO USE IT. POOR RECORD THIS TRACK, BUT THIS RACE IS WEAK ON FORM.
NO 12 UNDERESTIMATION 6.50 IS 1ST UP FOR MCEVOY, AND HE PLACES HIS HORSES VERY VERY WELL. LOOK FOR MONEY FOR IT.. STABLE GOING WELL!
NO 2 TIME LESS PRINCE 13.00 WAS BIG ODDS 1ST UP ( I HAD A FEW BUCKLS ON HIM) ALWAYS QUITE LIKED THIS FELLOW… WON SOME NICE MONEY ON HIM.. COULD IMPROVE WITHOUT SURPRISING ME..
NO 9 MAGIC DALLAS 6.00 VERY CONSISTENT HAS A RACE FIT ADVANTAGE AGAINST THEM HERE. DRAWN WELL. MAY SIT MID FIELD?
REALLY HARD RACE 6-7-12-2-9.
RACE 8 NO 1 HEART TESTA 5.00 IS VERY GOOD 2ND UP, WALLER WILL HAVE HIM READY. 17TH STARTER. VERY GOOD FORM LAST TIME IN. CAPE KIDNAPPERS, BEAT IT… BIT SURPRISED ITS 1200 AND NOT 1100.. THAT IS ONLY QUERY, BUT WALLER KNOWS BEST!
NO 2 DOTHRAKI 5.50 HAS TRIALLED PRETTY WELL, SHOULD BE REWADY TO DO SOME THING FRESH. HAS BEEN GELDED WIHICH WAS HOLDING HIM BACK.. RYAN FINALLY GOT HIS WAY TO GELD HIM, SO HORSE MIGHT BE A FERW LENGTHS BETTER… BIG HOPES…
NO 3 EMBLEMS 4.60 HAS GOOD FORM.. TRACED IN STRADBROKE HAS FRESH FORM.
NO 12 YOULL NEVER 6.00 HAS HAD 2 MONTHS NO RACING AND RACED CLOSE BEHIND ROCK STURDY! THATS GOOD FORM, SHOULD HAVE GOOD FITNESS, AND WALLEWR TRAINS.. GOOD CHANCE TO BE IN 1ST 4.
GOOD RACE 1,2,3,12.. BOX THEM UP. ONE OF THESE WILL WIN.. QUINELLA LOOKS GOOD ALSO. NO 14 KING COBIA 13.00 NEXT BEST… GOOD FRESH FORM.. GOES FAST.