DOOMBEN RACES 7&8 September 18, 2014 No Comments
RACE 7 NO 4 LIVING ON A PRAYER 5.50 PROVEN HERE AND WILL SIT MID FIELD. GOOD EFFORT BEHIND ADEBESI WHEN PACE WAS NOT POURED ON LIKE WE ALL EXPECTED.
NO 1 ADEBESI 5.00 WAS WELL RATED WHEN WINNING HERE OVEWR 1100.. NOT MASSIVE PACE HERE, BUT HAS TO GO EXTRA 100 METERS, THATS THE QUESTION MARK??
NO 2 ROCKET TO GLORY 5.50 WILL GIVE A SIGHT.2ND UP , BUT IS GETTING FITTER.
NO 11 FINAL CRESCENDO 7.00 IS DRAWN WELL HERE, WHILE LAST TIME WAS OFF THE TRACK. COULD EASILY WIN THIS IF RIGHT.
RACE 8. NO 1 BINGO ROSE 3.70 TOTALLY FLATTENED ME AFTER BACKING HERE OVER AND OVER AGAIN.. I SAID ENUGH WAS ENUFF AND LET HER GO ROUND WITHOUT ME.. AND SHE WINS IN BEST STYKE OF HER LONG CAREER.. ALWAYS HAD IFFY TRAINERS AND NOW WITH KELLY SCHWEIDA WHO IS CLEARLY PROBABLY BETTER THAN PREVIOUS STABLES.. STILL SHAKING MY HEAD.. UP IN WEIGHT.
NO 12 TINTS 7.00 GOT GOING ALL TOO LATE LAST WEEK, AND WOUND UP 1.7 LENGTHS BEHIND THE WINNER.. WAS DISAPPOINTING OVER ALL. WAS HEAVILY BACKED! MIGHT GO OK?
NO 13 VALERIE D’ARMOUR 13.00 RAN THIRD TO THE HANDY TERONADO, AND IS NOW VERY FIT.3 RUNS BACK HAS HER READY. GOOD PLACE BET AT BIG ODDS. ADD TO TRIFECTA
NO 15 SEA RED 4.20 IS JUMPING STRAIGHT BACK INTO THE DEEP END BY GOING 2ND UP AFTER WINNING IN EFFORTLESS STYLE AT SC OVER 1400 .. THIS IS WAY HARDER, BUT ALWAYS HAD GOOD ABILITY.UNDER THE ODDS HERE HOWEVER.
RACE 7. NO 10 HANDSOME TYCOON 4.80 BOLTED BY 7 LEN AT WARICK FARM,, WORTH A SHOT HERE.. COUNTING ON A WET TRACK TO GIVE THAT ADVANTAGE.. GOES FAST HERE. ONLY IF VERY WET STAND HIM OUT.
NO 11 RED DYNAMITE 9.00 TRIALLED FAIRLY BEHIND THE SMART RIVA DE LAGO.. GOES OK NEW.
NO 6 ATMOSPHERICAL4.40 IS A BOOM HORSE.. I AM KEEPING OUT OF BOOMING HIM AT PRESENT. NOT A WET TRACKER.. COULD STILL RUN 3RD IF TRACK NOT TOO BAD..IF TRACK GOES TO DEAD 4, PROBABLY WINS. 2 FROM2 2ND UP!!
NO 8 MAYSOON 7.00 NEEDS IMPROVING TRACK, PROBABLY GETS IT!
10-11-6-.8 NO 6 IF TRACK FINE..
RACE 8. NO 3 TERRAVISTA 3.00 WENT GANG BUSTERS 1ST UP.. I WAS UNSURE ABOUT HEAVY TRACK SO SADLY DID NOT FLY INTO HIM AS I HAVE DONE PREVIOUSLY WITH SOME RELISH… DID COST ME A BIT IN THE RYDER ..LOVE A BIG PRICE ON A GOOD HORSE.. FAILED TO DO WELL AFTER TRAVELLING WIDE.. BUT WENT SO WELL 1ST UP.. GOOD HORSE AND I EXPECT HIM TO WIN THIS.
NO 2 SESSIONS 3.20 NEEDS A DEAD TRACK! SIMPLE AS THAT, IF ITS SLOW FORGET HIM, BUT IF DEAD QUINELLA CHANCE FOR SURE.. IN FACT QUINELLA GOOD THING. READY TO RUN NOW. TRIALLED BEAUTIFULLY.
NO 1 FAMOUS SHAMUS 8.00 WENT TO BRIS BANE AND EXPLODED INTO FORM.. I DO NOT LIKE BARRIER 11 HERE FOR HIM..IF HE STAYS THERE I DOUBT CAN FIGURE, BUT WATCH FOR FUTURE, HE REALLY CAME OF AGE LAST TIME IN. WAS VERY IMPRESSIVE.
NO 4 SAFEGUARD 9.00 IS ANOTHER WHO HAS BEEN SCRATCHED DODGING WET TRACKS! HAS EXCEPTIONAL 1ST UP FORM. GOOD TRACKS BEST.
3-2-1-4… OR BOX THESE IN TRICKS. TAKEN TERRAVISTA AND SESSIONS IN QUINELLA.
Randwick Race 6 – GEORGE MAIN STAKES September 17, 2014 No Comments
Track should be about a Dead 5? Rain predicted Saturday morning. Prices rated to a Dead 5 and I am betting on better side of dead but must wait to see truth.
No.1 SACRED FALLS ($7.50 – my computer says $7.50). Two runs in and now ready. Last patterns suggest runs well. I thought last start was ready cos of wet track but just laboured last 200m but not beaten far. Surely runs well now. Dead track perhaps not ideal, may need that rain to really come down.
No.2 HAWKSPUR ($7 – $6.50). Won well last start, really fought on hard. Ii am declaring he runs 2nd. I am declaring won’t win! Secret teachings say runs top 4 but not winning. Team riding is the danger to this statement.
No.3 TOYDINI ($10 – $6.50). Needs a dead track. If goes to slow or heavy I doubt him severely. First up run was pleasing and good 2nd up figures. Track condition the key I think. Slow no, dead yes!
No. 4 LASER HAWK ($81 – $41). Being thwarted by wet tracks, weather men say no to Laser Hawk again.
No.5 TERONADO ($11 – $19). Big win with no weight at Doomben. This 10 classes higher and up in weights. I say no. I have backed him before and done my ass.
No.6 ROYAL DESCENT ($5 – $6.50). Big run to just go by down by a short nose to Hawkspur, drawn to get every chance again if rail is not off.
No.7 LUCIA VALENTINA ($4.80 – $7). Just burnt them in heavy going when sprinted like it found a hard road lane on course. Bolted in in brilliant style. 2 from 2 first up but failed 2nd up last time in. If big rains come and track heavy I have to say has a good chance. Crazy price for Caufield Cup after 1st up win. Handles all going. Not overly big the worry going forwards … better be a big eater. Early money coming.
No.8 RISING ROMANCE ($11 – $26). Was going well until Lucia Valentina joined in and went past them all like they were walkers. Can’t win for mine. Was still a solid run from back in field but run not in same class as the winner.
No.9 GYPSY DIAMOND ($67 – $67). Been spruiked and smashed on heavy tracks. Was heavily backed last start and beaten by miles.
No.10 PANZER DIVISION ($4.60 – $8). Stable going very well indeed. Likes to go forward so pace should be keen enough. Has 50.5kg so will try and do a Shamus Award. Only had 3 starts and facing up to top class horses! Good win beating Shooting To Win who ran well in Roses. Promising horse with no weight!! Seems to have a big heart as well. Sadly under the odds..
If track ok warming to Toydini
AFL PRELIMINARY FINAL 2 – HAWTHORN v PORT ADELAIDE September 15, 2014 No Comments
Understand I write this as a lifelong Port supporter and a Hawthorn respecter. Even though I only spent five weeks at Hawthorn, I found them to be totally fantastic and they are easy to like a lot, they are indeed a happy team at Hawthorn.
Hawthorn are at virtual full fitness apart from Rioli? Port have travelled back from Perth and after demoralising Richmond from the opening second, and smashing them for 3-quarters they went to Perth and were mentally timid for most of the first half. Port looked poorly prepared mentally, they were hesitant, brushed aside, and it was only Fremantle’s pathetic kicking that kept them a hope. I sent a message to Ben Dixon in the second quarter, ‘hope they keep missing’, but all Ross Lyon teams miss, check his record … missssssssssssssssssssses …. he is no genius, I said it all along and was vindicated. I said Freo did not run games out thrashing team and look what happened. After seven minutes into last quarter they whimpered out. Gee wizz I got Fremantle right … again. Ross Lyon prepared his team poorly, his teams miss goals, always have and his teams do not finish games off, they always pull up saving themselves for next week. So when they have to play 4 quarters they just do not know how, I said it over and over. I said it on national TV eight weeks ago. My opinion must be respected!
So Port came into their own in the second half, trouble is Hawthorn has Jack Russell keeping them fit and he knows what he is doing. He and Darren Burgess (Port) are the best at training players so to me the advantage is clearly with Hawthorn. Port were just awful in the first half against Freo and Port cannot afford to give Hawthorn a big head start as Hawthorn keep going, or coming anyway. They have incredible players like Burgoyne! Burgoyne is just a sensational ball finder and user. If any Hawks player does not give him the ball it is insane, he is brilliant, always has been. Port really stuffed up losing him, he is a champion. They have Mitchell and this bloke is just magnificent, he finds the ball and uses it either side at will. He is truly an incredible football player. Then they have Lewis who is in career form, and he gets the football. I see Hawthorn winning the ball from around the packs and this means they get it up forward. This means Roughead and Gunston get chances and both kick really well. Then Bruest is left alone and he goes bang bang bang. Hale is exceptionally good up forward and takes marks, he also kicks for goal very well. Then you have Smith streaming thru the lines, Puopolo zipping and zapping, but then when Port do get the ball Hawthorn have 3 of the best readers of the ball in modern times. Lake, Hodge and Gibson read the game as well as any have for 20 years … three of them!! Then they release Birchell to ignite Smith and then they get it forward. Port have come home from Perth and then with all the hype have to travel to Melbourne and face up to a terrific fresh football side, it’s too big an ask, even for Port Adelaide who are basically a year or two immature, but going beautifully …
Port needed to finish top 4 to have a bigger chance. I think they get beaten here. That first half effort in WA was terrible by them and I think Hawthorn get the jump, or in fact come home too hard for Port who have been sensational over all. I am happy to back Port next season again. Hawthorn v Swans Grand Final is terrific for school fees coming up, the quinella was the go a while back and it’s gonna come to fruition. I just do not think Port can go on and beat Hawthorn under these circumstances. Hawthorn have learnt brilliantly well by playing Geelong how to keep coming at you and Port having travelled back from Perth makes it that bit tougher. Hawthorn have Hill, I declared this bloke when many were saying he is nothing special. I love him, he is brilliant, runs like a sprinting marathon runner. He links things up, kicks goals, defends deep, then 10 seconds later is involved in the goal, he is fantastic. I am still not sure about Langford, he must tackle and chase, and give the ball to Burgoyne and Mitchell. Sewell will smash in also. My instruction to Langford would be to get the ball in Mitchell and Burgoyne’s hands, or Smith’s as fast as possible. I expect Roughead to kick 5 and Gunston 5 also.
Port, I just do not think they get started. I think Hawks control the break downs and therefore Port do not get enough samples from which to work. Do I mind if I am wrong? Nah. I am rarely wrong in big games and I do have good money on Port to win flag anyway but I am pretty sure Hawthorn will be winning but Port a good bet next season. Port a must bet next season but this week Hawthorn will win.
SYDNEY SWANS v NORTH MELBOURNE
When the Swans won the flag under Roos I kind of watched the happiness and said it’s nice to see them happy, but 5 minutes later I was totally over it. I just do not like the Swans. I understand they are a very good side etc. but, after visiting their rooms when I was with Port, and all that terrible red everywhere you looked, it was so blood like … red red red everywhere, it was awful. I do not like the Swans.
Well the astute James Brayshaw and “his” coach Brad Scott can be rightly proud about their season. They did as well as reality said they could but if you think North go on from here you are entering deep, deep and dangerous fantasy, click your fingers and snap out of it. Jump into a glass of ice water, North will get beaten here. The Swans are a living certainty. The fantasy men will be saying Thompson, Zeibell, Harvey, Brown, Black. But to me it sounds like mmmmmurr, derrrrr, flimnmmm … silence.
The Swans are a 7-goal better team under these weight for age conditions with the Swans having the week off and having Buddy and Tippett and Reid these blokes will be unstoppable. If only one of them is running riot the Swans win but I see Tippett getting 4 goals and Buddy perhaps 7! North do not have the players to stop these champions. Tippett dominates the air, Buddy controls whatever he wants to control, he will be brilliant here. Buddy is explosive in long bursts. I have said for years he is the best player in the game, and for all those of you who do not agree with me you are wrong. I take Buddy every time, he can do it all, and what’s more he does it all! Kick the ball thirty yards away and let Buddy and Ablett go after it, Buddy wins with his speed. Put it the air, Buddy stands tall and marks it. Buddy beats Ablett in every department. Ablett can be second best, no shame in that! He’s still a champ. Buddy kicks impossible goals from 70m, Ablett from 50m …
I think the Swans will rest Malceski, he is not required here. McVeigh will link up well, that’s what he does. I would always match him up with a Leech, stop him and you go a long way to stopping the Swans, but then Jetta will run and run and run. Rowan will be given license to run and carry, Jack and Parker, and Kennedy … stop it North will be saying!
North’s Goldstein was terrific last week, he gave his all. He was truly fantastic and gave so much but he will be tired come 3/4 time this week. Big bodies running into him, Pyke going bang ( for the record I am over Goodes, his falling over wanting a hand out from the umpires is awful to watch).
North can be very happy and content for the time being in making it as far as they did. They did their very best but it’s all over now, the Swans are going to win, and win they will. Swans 30-70 a living certainty. Again for the record I do not like the Swans, never have, but they will win this game for sure.
SYD 8 September 12, 2014 No Comments
NO 6 ALIAS 3.20 HAS ALSO WON 2 FROM 2 ON HEAVY TRACKS. JOE PRIDE STABLE IN FORM.
NO 5 REFLECTANCE 5.00 IS LOOKING FOR BETTER TRACKS, BUT LAST RUN BEHIND WEINHOLDT WS VERY GOOD. IMPROVING TRACK, IMPROVING CHANCES
NO 1 ANY DAY WILL 9.00 DO HAS NEVER PLACED 1ST UP, BUT HAS 2ND UP, COULD SNEAK INTO 3RD OR 4TH.