RANDWICK RACES 8,9 April 18, 2014 No Comments
RACE 8. NO 3 SACRED FALLS 7.00 WON US MONEY LAST WEEK, WAS A LOVELY PRICE AND A BANKER IN BETS.. STICKING WITH HIM. ON THE UP IN DISTANCE IS OK ON A WET TRACK.. I SAY RUNS 1ST OR 2ND IN THESE CONDITIONS. WALLER WOULD HAVE HIM PRIMED, IT FITS IN I THINK.
NO 5 CARLTON HOUSE 4.80 IS CERTAINLY THE OMEN BET IN THE QUEEN ELIZABETH STAKES. AND A WIN WOULD HARDLY SURPRISE.. RACES ON PACE AND LAST RUN WAS VERY VERY GOOD. TOMMY BERRY KNOWS HIM WELL. RUBBISH PRICE ON OFFER. WAS 6.50 LAST WEEK.
NO 11 ROYAL DESCENT 5.00 IS A SENSATIONAL PLACE CHANCE.. I DO NOT THINK CAN WIN BUT THINK A PLACE IS A NEAR CERTAINTY. LOVES TRACK AND DISTANCE AND HANDLES HEAVY TRACKS.. RUNS WELL FOR SURE.
NO 10 SLIENT ACHIEVER 5.50 HAS NEVER GONE BETTER, ONLY QUERY IS NO PLACINGS IN 2 GOES THIS TRACK.. BUT IS A 3 LENGTH BETTER HORSE THIS TIME IN..
BOX THESE AND COLLECT 3,5,11,10…. 2 ITS A DUNDEEL 5.50 IS NOW MATCH FIT, AND NOT CATCHING UP…HAS BEEN A RUN BEHIND ALL PREP AS I HAVE STATED BEFORE.. DROPPING BACK IN DISTANCE..
RACE 9. NO 3 FULL OF SPIRIT IS A BIG WATCH HORSE HERE. MOODY TRAINS NOW AFTER ROGER JAMES. HEAVY TRACK FORM OK, FORM LINES VERY GOOD AND EXCELLENT FRESH!
NO 5 PLUCKY BELLE MOST UNLUCKY LAST START IN ROSEHILL MUD, GIVEN 3 WEEKS TO GET OVER THAT.. HAS WON 2ND UP, LOOKS HARD TO BEAT.
NO 7 PERON IS FRESH, AND IS EXTRA SMART, SCR LAST WEEK AND SAVED FOR THIS.. HOPING FOR A BETTER TRACK?? BUT PERON IS A VERY GOOD HORSE, AND BIG TRACK SUITS IDEALLY. HITS LINE HARD.
NO 12 COSMIC ENDEAVOUR IS RACE FIT, AND GETS TO HOMETRACK FOR WATERHOUSE. DROPS 1 KILO ON GOOD 2ND TO POLITENESS.
3,5,7,12… NOT EASY. NO 1 DYSTOPIA AND 2. AVOID LIGHTNING ARE FROM HOPELESS..
RACE 7. NO 2 EXCELLENTES ALWAYS GOES BETTER 2ND UP, AND HE RAN WELL 1ST UP AFTER A FRESHEN. GO TOWARDS LEAD AND BE HARD TO BEAT AS LONG AS TRACK IS PRETTY GOOD.. NO WORSE THAN A DEAD 4 SUITS.
NO 5 LOVE ROCKS IS THE TESTING MATERIAL, SCR LAST WEEK FOR THIS.. NOT SURE WHY REALLY? BUT THIS HORSE IS VERY SMART INDEED, AND IF RUNS UP TO LAST TIME IN PROBABLY WINS… BUT LAST WEEK WAS 1100, THIS IS 1200.. INTERESTING TRAINING THOUGHTS?? FOR A FAST HORSE. HAS NOT WON 1ST UP IN TWO Attempts..
NO 1 BENNYS BUTTONS. I WAS AT JUMP OUTS ON TUESDAY WHEN TRACK WAS SLOW AND MAKING A LOUD SLAPPING SOUND, AND THIS HORSE WAS SUPER IMPRESSIVE WINNING EASILY IN DASHING STYLE.. BUT TRACK WAS SLOW… THATS HIS GO.. A WET TRACKER… IF TRACK WAS A SLOW 7 I WOULD DECLARE HIM ON WHAT I SAW ON TUESDAY, HE WAS VERY POWERFUL./. BUT IF TRACK IS DEAD 4, 5 HIS CHANCES ARE NOT AS GOOD.
NO 9 VINTAGE MOSS IS A VERY SMART SPRINTER AND IS DRAWN NOT SO WELL, GOES PRETTY QUICKLY, SO MAY GET LUCKY?? OR NOT! PLACE CHANCES ARE OK…
NO 6 TOKAMAK IS GOOD 1ST UP, AND A MARKET WATCH AT LEAST… HARD RACE.
RACE 8 NOT MUCH PACE IN RACE MEANS NO 12 KENTUCKY WOMAN GETS ITS CHANCE TO WIN AGAIN… IT SHOULD SIT NO MORE THAN 4 LENGTHS OFF LEAD AND HAVE EVERY CHANCE TO HIT LEAD WITH 200 TO GO… SHOULD BE FIT AND WELL FOR THIS.
NO 1 BAUKAW I WAS DISAPPOINTED IN RIDE WHEN HE GOT LOST, CAPABLE OF STORMING HOME IOF PACE IS ON… BIG FIELD MAY MEAN THEY GO FASTER THAN I IMAGINE… GOOD WHEN RIGHT, APPRENTICE JOCKEY THE WORRY. DID NOT RIDE WELL LAST TIME.
NO 9 CAELLUM RAN A HANDY RACE LAST START AT BIG ODDS, AND CAN PLACE AGAIN HERE AT A LESSER PRICE, BUT MOST WILL LEAVE OUT…
NO 5 ALDINI HAS HAD TWO RUNS IN AND BOTH BEEN OK, WELL DRAWN, GOOD 1ST 4 CHANCE AT ODDS.
HARD RACE 12-1-9-5.
Hello folks, it’s The Postman here delivering all your Best Bets for the Saturday’s afternoon of Group 1 glory!
It’s the Championships at Royal Randwick and the $4m Dollar Queen Elizabeth. One could be forgiven for thinking we are at Wimbledon without the covers! They play on grass, we play on mud although the forecast looks encouraging. The big question of the day isn’t at Randwick however – it’s at Oakbank – who will win the Onkaparinga Cup! Ha! Enjoy your day, here are some tips to make them pay!
South Pacific Classic (Race 2) – Papillon Rouge EW. She had an excellent first preparation and can measure up to these. Value bet for the Postman to kick off proceedings.
Queen Of The Turf Stakes (Race 5) – It’s Catkins v Red Tracer for the title of Queen. They ran 1-2 in the Myer Classic in the Spring. Reckon Catkins is going just that little bit better and I like her at the odds. Catkins to wear the Crown today.
Sapphire Stakes (Race 9) – Plucky Belle ran super 1st up and ready to have last shot at them again. Moody/Schofield nice combo to finish the day. Peron fresh can run the quin. Back PB and save on quin.
CAULFIELD is a very competitive support program with heaps of value to be found.
Bert Bryant Handicap (Race 5) – Sense of Hite EW. Big odds for a horse that has had plenty of excuses past 2 or 3 starts. With a clear run can give a bold sight.
Victoria Handicap (Race 6) – Great race with heaps of depth. I am backing Ready to Rip 2nd up at the value. Drawn well and will look the winner at some stage!
Easter Cup (Race 7) – Banca Mo is so honest and ready to fire up to 2000m. The Hayes import Stipulate looks well placed too. Backing them both.
And finally…..The Onkaparinga Cup (Race 5)!!! My old mate Texan Warney, I just can’t tip against him!! Go Warney!!
Best Bet: Catkins
Best Value: Papillon Rouge
Best Roughie: Sense of Hite
UNION ROUND 10 April 15, 2014 2 Comments
Hurricanes $1.60 v Blues $2.05. Two unreliable teams, both capable of brilliance and impotency depending on the mood, the vibe, the who knows what? Sadly we have to adjust our thinking to home ground advantage, as nothing else rates as reliable information. Both teams have great backs, Blues miss Ranger badly he was that extra star that made room for others when other players rallied to stop Ranger. They centre their attention on the back 3 sadly, Savea is fantastic so potentially this is an attacking match where 40 points could be scored in no time! No bet from me. Hurricanes in black and yellow 1-12.
Rebels $1.77 v Force $2.05. Good value the Force! If I thought the refs were gonna be fair I would happily back the Force but refs in this town give Rebels a big big head start. Can’t bet with confidence because of it. I think Force are a better side and Foley is doing a terrific job!! Proving to all he can coach. I told you all I like him and he was thoughtful and considered in his style. He also took my advice and let his players attack and try their luck. From that base things can happen, confidence and belief! I have been calling for Higgenbotham to be Wallaby captain. I will watch him closely here, as he must lead brilliantly here to get his side up, they are not that good. I thought Force deserve to be favourites. Small bet Force with head start but expect dubious refereeing 1-12. (Hoping Alby Mathewson is OK for match, he is important player).
Chiefs $1.57 v Crusaders $2.40. Former top coach John Connolly is talking up Crusaders here and saying he thinks they can win title!! As you know I am death riding them. I say chiefs smash Crusaders they have their measure. Teams beat teams in cycles. At this stage Chiefs are only at 6 o’clock in the winning cycle. I just think Chiefs have been cruising a bit, and we will see a big lift here. They also play at home and I love them here, so its bye bye Crusaders and I will not be betting on Crusaders this week or any week, let alone to win title. I say they are rubbish. Chiefs 13+
Waratahs $1.32 v Bulls $3.40. Bulls going ok, and Tahs have been a myth. Chubby Checka has been typecast now as a fake in my mind, orchestrating that smileathon in box after going nuts was just awful and so set up it made me ill and showed us all Waratahs care about perception not truth and they lost again!! No Israel, obviously they are useless without him. Beaten up badly by the Force!! Bulls been unlucky naturally any touring team cops a big penalty count spare me talk of honest refereeing, figures say no no no. Where do the tourists get their penalties etc and when last 5 minutes when game is lost, it’s a joke! Tahs will probably win if Israel plays, he wants to play but “mother” country says no! I am so over the Tahs, they will not be winning anything, Cheka is a fake and so is his side. Checka cares about his look not his reality, it’s laughable. No bet.
Sharks $1.16 v Cheetahs $5.25. Cheetahs got off to a rotten start and never recovered and have been shocking. Sharks will win.
Storm $1.40 v Lions $3 Storm are no good, but Lions are tiring. Stormers get their chance here, but they are hardly morals, they have had a terrible season and been injury plagued all along the way each week copping another hit to their list. Maybe they win, but guessing really.
Lousy round for bets, last week was good!
BEST: Chiefs to win, Force with head start, Sharks best bet!
GEELONG v HAWTHORN – 3.20pm Monday 21st April, MCG
Geelong $2.52 v Hawthorn $1.52. I have now thought about it for two days and am convinced Hawthorn will beat Geelong. Last time they met the Hawks broke the spell, and did so in a big big game, a game that led them to the premiership all be it on top of Varcoe missing a goal from 35m out, goal kicking always matters!
Hawthorn have been super impressive with their ball movement but most of all with their positional play when under stress. They have players run here and there and it all links together really precisely, and what looks like dangerous times quickly turns to happy times indeed. They have multiple goal kickers and fast runners and great left foot skills. I know Geelong are more than handy, and they had the wood on Hawthorn for ages, years even! Geelong’s best chance is to have a wet pitch, this will multiply the stress factor in ball handling and kicking and marking. Geelong are proven wet trackers, and if it’s wet I would not want to bet. I probably do not want to bet anyway and just enjoy the match. Mark Evans came out on radio and said expect more free kicks this week, they must know it has gone too far the other way but watching players like Hill and Varcoe, they should be terrific, both run fast and free and Hill for Hawthorn is a real ball finder and user, he and Rioli have already combined for victory v Essendon. Hodge will be dynamic, he and opposition captain Joel Selwood should both be sensationally courageous for their impressive teams. Selwood is accompanied in toughness by Bartel, Hawkins and with Stevey J capable of the amazing, just as Hawks players are – Lewis, Mitchell and Roughead will be active. It all spreads out to be a sensational match again! I am going Hawthorn 1-39. I see them spreading and getting around and thru Geelong more often than vice versa.