FOOTY RATINGS – Round 23 August 28, 2014 No Comments
LAST WEEKS STATS HIGHLIGHTS
Port Adelaide v Carlton – predicted total match score 176 – actual 177
Kangaroos – predicted score 95 – actual 101
Adelaide – predicted score 90 – actual 94
Essendon – predicted score 105 – actual 108
Melbourne predicted score 51 – actual 53
Hawthorn v Geelong – predicted margin 20 – actual 23
Tread warily this week, as teams prepare for the Finals and draft pick order! 2 bets – Freo/Port under 163.5 and Lions Line @41.5……Bring on the finals!
COLLINGWOOD v HAWTHORN - With 10 players out of their best starting 18 out injured, the Pies have next to no chance of causing the upset and playing finals this year. If the Hawks are serious, this should be a 100 point thrashing. Interesting to see who lines up. No Bet.
CARLTON v ESSENDON - Blues are another side that have been hit hard by injuries. Bombers have a few to contend with as well, but are safe in the 8, without too much incentive this week. Can see Blues bouncing back here, but have game rated close to odds on offer. No Bet
FREMANTLE v PORT ADELAIDE – Should be one of the genuine games of this round. Both teams have enough to play for, and should provide a tight even contest. Bet total match score under 163.5
SYDNEY SWANS v RICHMOND - Big game for the Tigers, but was not impressed with their effort last week. Swans can’t lose top 2 spot – another game where final line ups will come into play. No Bet
KANGAROOS v MELBOURNE – Kangas have 6th spot sewn up, and opportunity to rest players in preparation for next week. Would not surprise to see the Demons cover the line in this game. No Bet
GEELONG v BRISBANE - Cats finally starting to show some of the faults that have existed in the ratings over the last 6 weeks. Have not handled the last game of the season well in the past against lowly sides, and can see the Lions bridging the gap offered at the line. Bet Lions @ +41.5 line
GOLD COAST SUNS v WEST COAST EAGLES – Game hinges on a number of factors for the Eagles depending on what happens in previous games. They enter this game with far better ratings than Suns, and should cover the line, but care factor hinges on other results. No Bet
ADELAIDE v ST KILDA - Crows will know exactly how much they need to win by to enter the 8, if they still can, by the time this game starts. Same with the Saints in regards to Number 1 draft pick – No Bet
WESTERN BULLDOGS v GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY – This should see a win for the consistent and improving Doggies, but unsure of the amount as GWS can be unpredictable. No Bet
No.1 KINGDOMS ($3.30). Has had a 7 week freshen and a trial to ready him up. Smart horse. Was sadly second last start when I climbed in boots and all and stablemate beat him. Felt ill for days! Best horse here. Slow track winner.
No.3 EPIC ($6.50). Was absolutely slaughtered last start in what I thought was a scandalous ride. Rode him way forward and then went for it at top of straight and got the stitch. Outrageous ride I thought. Jockey change!!
No.4 FERMENT ($4.80). Was perfectly ridden by Munce in that epic race and won handsomely. No wet form, needs dry or scratch.
No.5 ROTHERA ($26 on dead – $7 on heavy). Has a hope if rains come and comes down big time. Last chance for one of my favourites. Getting old now and needs a bog to figure.
No.s 6 and 8 are next best. No.8 TRAKSTAR ($6) Ready to do something, include in quaddie No.10 TAIL AND ALL ($12) heavy track winner. Will try and lead all way, way down in weight!!
No.1 STAR SAMMY ($4.70). Goes best fresh, won a trial suggesting ready to go as usual fresh. Needs the claim, no claim no bet, 59kg too much weight. Doubt will run if too wet.
No.3 JUST A PEARLA ($5.50). Is a big watch here if rains come. Heavy tracker with a good fresh record, has not won but been placed 2 out of 3. Trialled well.
No.6 YOU DID WHAT ($3.50). Was a 17th start winner and looked good doing it! Rain would help also. I may back him even tho against the secret teachings. Sometimes there are exceptions. Not been any for a while so we are due. Loves it heavy!!
No.2 PLATINUM STATE ($21). Has been going and working well and while his figures are ordinary here this race is a bit dodgy looking??
No.4 HOYLONNY ($10). Is proven at track and distance and is in form, even tho nobody was expecting him to win last start! Waller looked sheepish when interviewed, his more fancied runners lost! Drops 2 kilos on that win a good pointer.
No.3 BONFIRE ($5). Ran very well 1st up here from England, should appreciate the wet track and Hoylonny form is the fittest form going.
No.5 HE’S YOUR MAN ($7). Is 3rd up for Waller and won nicely over 1500m here. Good slow track form.
No.11 SABOR A TRIUNFO ($8). Was disappointing last start when got way too far back before winding up way too late. Blew in betting.
No.5 TWO BLUE ($6). Is 1st up on a heavy track and that looks good! Tim Bell takes the ride and looks set to give a big sight here.
No.17 MIO DIO ($16). Never got hot after missing away last week. May improve here at odds. Tricky stable, could improve at 50-1.
No.11 MURDER OF CROWS ($6). Was kind last start, has won in heavy going, and if they can run on has a chance.
No.3 MOUNT NEBO ($8). Was deeply disappointing only 3rd last week when I needed him to win. I had a fixed quinella on him and Everage at 100-1 and they started 2 favourites!! Neither could salute, it was mind boggling.
Really hard race, if money comes for the 5 I am in. Specking the 17.
MEMSIE STAKES – Caulfield Race 8 August 27, 2014 No Comments
No.1 HAPPY TRAILS (Market price, my computer says $17). Unsuited 1st up on slow ground and that means nothing as was set more for this and needed the run. Could easily finish 3rd or 4th running on. 2nd up form solid. I doubt can win, but can run 3rd or 4th.
No.2 BOBAN ($4.20 – $7). Really nice run in Missile. Can only improve here if pace is on that is the proviso, if no pace will probably finish 5th or 6th. If pace is on can win. Risky at the short price but on the day if run on horses favoured shorten him up.
No.3 MOMENT OF CHANGE ($6.50 – $4.80). Totally loves this track and distance and that’s his advantage. He will be confident going into it after a fairly good run 1st up with 62kg! This is harder than has met before, he was lucky to beat Sertorius last time they met here as that horse missed away badly and nearly won. I am going to take on a bit here but also take quinella with Sweet Idea as these two should be one and 2 and over 1400m that is how they end up as well. Is a good price according to computer, I have to support for something!
No.4 SUPER COOL ($26 – $61). Goes OK fresh, a win would shock however. Could finish a handy 6th and be smile making for trainer and connections.
No. 5 SERTORIUS ($41 – $31). Could be a good place chance as races near lead and fights on well. Good horse, who always puts in. How much that Sydney Cup run has taken out of him a question mark. As we saw Hawkspur did not recover from Melbourne Cup run for ages. Ran 3rd in Sydney Cup on wet track, good effort. I think best he can do is finish 3rd at best.
No.6 PUISSANCE DE LUNE ($11 – $12). Very ordinary run 1st up when was spruiked by all who knew as needing to be 80% fit to just win. That proved to be phooey. Second up form is outstanding but I think 2,3,4th looks best after a run that was plain, for a horse declared a winner for sure!
No.7 MESSENE ($4.20 – $4.80). Draws a same barrier he drew in Sydney before being scratched. Gets run of race here. Top 4 finish looks every chance as won’t be far away and should get every chance being in first 5 in the run. Hard to knock on any level. Big chance.
No.8 DISSIDENT ($17 – $21). Scratched in Sydney as heavy track not his go. A little bit under rated, and I am in that camp. I am taking on, hoping it’s a run short.
No.9 SILENT ACHIEVER ($11 – $26). People say trialled plainly, means nothing really. Good horses know when its game day. 1st up form ok without being scintillating. I mean WFA horse looking for 1600m plus but she has Oliver and that means horse must be taken seriously. The negatives are never run a place this track, never won this distance in 4 goes and those negatives outweigh Oliver riding her. Taking on! They do not learn new tricks at age 6.
No.10 GIG ($81 – $61). Solid run here in dodgy race. Very consistent horse and if they go slowly, has a place chance I suppose. But I doubt could run 1st or second. Have to take on. Lacks something this grade.
No.11 SWEET IDEA ($5 – $4.40). Tremendously courageous horse. Raced on that sauna day in Gold Coast and recovered fantastically well. Others have never raced well since. Good horse this girl. Tries her heart out. Goes forward and is the one to beat. Respect her a lot.
SELECTIONS: My first 4 is 2,3,7,11–,3,7,11—1,2,3,5,6,7,11–1,2,3,5,6,7,11
ROUND 23 August 25, 2014 No Comments
COLLINGWOOD v HAWTHORN
Hawthorn are living breathing certainties and $1.08 is actually a good price, they should be $1.00! There is no way known outside of sniper fire that involves a machine gun that Collingwood can get anywhere near Hawthorn, they are Hawthorn’s bunnies but with half the team out for Collingwood it’s going to be a massacre. How much Hawthorn win by is entirely up to them, but knowing Hawthorn quite well, and respecting and liking them enormously, I would suggest that Hawthorn win by 60 plus, however if its rain swept and hailing and monsoonal it maybe only by 50. HAWTHORN 39+ … good bet
CARLTON v ESSENDON
While I do suggest that I see and feel Essendon getting tired both physically and mainly emotionally, which to me is just as important in demeaning a teams ability but Carlton have already gone over that cliff, Port annihilated them and Essendon should be all too powerful but may only limp in by 5 goals. Bookies say about 15 points the difference, I say that looks doubtful. History says teams playing out the season against teams in the 8 generally get towelled up as the non-finals team have so little an incentive to put in and talk of pride etc is just hooey in real life. It only takes a few players not really involved emotionally to be a disaster day for that team. I expect Essendon to win by more than 15, I think it’s a good bet but Essendon close to losing next week? ESSENDON to win by 17+ good bet!
FREMANTLE v PORT ADELAIDE
Really hard to get a grip on this match until Fremantle name the team. I do not trust Freo at the best of times, both teams have great incentive to win, the double chance is on the table. Will pav play? Maybe maybe not but no Fyfe is big. Port suited by the big oval, always play well here. The danger for both teams in real terms is that they win the battle and lose the war. If they go hammer and tongs and get sore as hell, injured, reports etc. so much depends on the mental preparation here. It’s like I told Hurley at Essendon you have to be super serious but that super part is part bluff, you do not actually punch them in the face, even though it looks like you are going to! Which team has the mental ability to do that best? I think Port is mentally smarter than Freo. Freo have players like Ballantyne who goes too far. I am not sure what happens here, I kind of give Port a good chance because I believe strongly that Freo will not be winning any premierships this season even tho Hawthorn gave them the leg up to improve and gain belief. I would not have sent a good strength team over had I been coaching Clarkson. Port get 15 head start which is tempting but the following week is more important and if Port are getting done I expect Hinkley to put cue in the rack early. No bet, but hoping Port win.
SYDNEY SWANS v RICHMOND
Richmond get 22 head start, that’s a great bet! Tigers have good record v Swans and seeing they have the incentive to win, and there is no bigger incentive in this round than for Richmond to play finals if they win, I expect Dusty Martin to play and play well, he is hard to stop. Richmond must attack and tackle, if they do not go full on attack and try and rock the Swans hard and early then it all makes no sense. Sadly the Swans are still my top tip to win the flag. With Tippett and Buddy up forward and flying they are an irresistible force. Richmond must stop McVeigh, he is huge link man for them and Hawks stopped him by tagging him, it meant lots by him not getting ball. I do rate Swans very highly, so Richmond is a fairy tale and reality might set in and it’s all too much for Richmond and Swans will want to go into finals in good winning form. Gee this is going to be a good watch. Richmond with head start a bet if you barrack for them! Hoping….
NORTH MELBOURNE v MELBOURNE
Yes it’s true I am totally right about Melbourne and Roos, not possible to be inspired to play defensive football all season North will thrash them, 45 points is a gift. I say bet on North, Melbourne are rubbish, and only if Roos is sick and can’t speak and show up might Melbourne play attacking free flowing football. Make it a shoot-out should be their mantra this week, they have Leading Teams also. Melbourne … Lady Boys! Still again … Roos passed off responsibility early doors. I said at the time it was astounding irrational and crazy decision. North by 60 plus, and a bet only giving away 45! Should cover that before half time.
GEELONG v BRISBANE LIONS
While I do not rate Lions highly I also do rate Geelong highly, and vice versa. I rate them down, about Cats 7-10 team Lions 4-10. This means Cats win by 40 plus, line here is 43 and that’s about right so no value here. Last game Lions might put in a dodgy one, hard to say with them, they are enigmatic but they have good running players but in this case Geelong will be looking to put in a good display for their ailing confidence. I have said all along that Geelong cannot play 4 quarters and they cannot win far into September and I am correct, I am hoping bookies rate them higher than I do, cos I am gonna bet against them heavily given the chance. Lions improving team, and coach has done a good job, he really has. Cats 39 plus likely.
GOLD COAST SUNS v WEST COAST EAGLES
I was surprised by Suns better effort last start, but where was it when really needed it a few weeks earlier?? Too late to feel sad I say, they should have played in finals and they blew it really badly, so seeing them walking around looking sad is hollow in reality. They were weak willed when it mattered most! I have to go for Eagles who have the incentive. They must be shaking their heads over so many games it’s astonishing but like Richmond they have gone to attacking football, and it’s been a godsend! They should win this match and if they do not, then Suns should be ashamed of themselves even more than they already should be. Kennedy should kick 5 and Priddis will be instrumental in getting them started. I am very disappointed in Suns. Eagles to win.
ADELAIDE v ST KILDA
The 54 line looks about right. Crows are the sort of team who could win by 100 here, then sit back and lament and wonder what could have been. I tipped North last week purely because you cannot trust the Crows football team. They run and share too much, miss important goals still and do stupid things that makes no sense. I would be in therapy if I barracked for them. Like myself, they have character flaw. Saints not going well. They have nothing to play for so they do get beaten but by how much? Probably a whole lot. If we are winning coming into this match, Crows are likely to win by lots if they have the incentive to do so, Crows 39 plus at least if no rain. If dry and sunny, by lots and lots.
BEST BETS:Hawks the line, all-up Essendon the line, all up North the line!
Hawks, all-up Essendon, all-up North, all-up Geelong, all-up Eagles, all-up Crows
All Blacks Versus Nothing Much August 24, 2014 No Comments
WELL, we had thought that Deans had left Australian rugby, but no, he is still a selector… We never had a chance with a team that was not our best combination.Then we did not even go over there on time, and fill ourselves with the atmosphere of the test match build up. This was nuts, and probably Ewan showing what a ruthless administrator he wants to be become, saving hotel money etc. so we were poorly chosen, poorly positioned, and then so easily compromised on the field. Our skills are a joke, our players need polishing badly, and who is coaching that? Nobody with any ability it seemed to me. So many dropped balls etc. so lacking in enthusiasm. Players with beards. No, we are not getting any better, but if you pick a team that is not our best what do you expect? Really disappointing I thought.