AFL ROUND 19 July 29, 2014 No Comments

FREO CARLTON

FREO WILL BE FIRED UP AND SHOULD WIN WELL. CARLTON WILL BE COACHED BY AN OLD MAN BITTER BLOKE DISTRESSED ABOUT BEING OUT OF THE ACTION AGAIN THIS SEASON.. HIS ACTION LAST SEASON WAS A JOKE AND NEVER SEEN BEFORE… THANKS ESSENDON.. HE HAS FAILED BIG TIME AT CARLTON, AS PREDICTED, HIS STYLE IS ANTIQUATED, AND ROSS LYON WILL DESTROY HIM EVEN MORE IN THIS MATCH. THE SHAME ABOUT FREMANTLE IS THAT THEY KEEP PULLING UP WHEN GETTING ON TOP… HOW OFTEN DO YOU SEE THEM DESTROY TEAMS AND THEN REALLY PUT THE BOOTS IN..? NOT OFTEN ENOUGH… CARLTON HAVE MIXED STYLES OF PLAY… AND THEY MASTER NONE.. FREO WITH MY FAVOURITE PLAYERS HILL AND FYFE LEADING THE WAY WILL BE WAY TOO POWERFUL.. I STILL SAY FREO CANNOT WIN THE FINAL. BUT THEY WILL WIN THIS MATCH 30-65…OR LESS. CANT TRUST FREO.

SYDNEY ESSENDON

WHAT AN INCREDIBLE DIFFERENCE IT WOULD MAKE IF ESSENDON COULD MAN HANDLE THE SWANS AND MAKE EVERYBODY GO.. WAH…. SYDNEY HAVE TO “REDEVELOP” THEIR IDEA OF WINNING STREAKS..(LAST ONE FALTERED) AND ESSENDON GET SYDNEY AT A GOOD TIME AFTER AN EMOTIONAL LOSS TO HAWTHORN… I DO SAY THE SWANS ARE STILL FAVOURITES TO WIN IN THE END… AND THE TRUTH ABOUT WHERE ESSENDON ACTUALLY SIT WILL BE EXPOSED… NO DANIHER IS ABIG LOSS.. THE MORE GAMES HE GETS WHILE YOUNG WOULD HAVE ONLY ADDED TO HIS EARLY STARDOM.. I SAY HE IS GOING TO BE ONE OF THE GREATS OF MODERN TIMES.
WHAT HAWTHORN DID SO WELL LAST WEEK WAS SHUT DOWM MCVEIGH.. SHIELS DID HIM IN… STOP THIS BLOKE AND YOU STOP SO MUCH OF THE SWANS.. I SAY STOP HIM AND YOU ARE HALF WAY TO BEATING THE SWANS.. BUT STOPPING BUDDY AND TIPPET AND REID IN ONE DAY IS ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE… ESSENDON HAVE TALL BACKS AND IF NEED BE CARLISELE CAN DO IT DOWN BACK… BUT AT WHAT EXPENSE UP FORWARD?
THIS SHOULD BE A PRETTY GOOD MATCH, AND I LOOK FORWARD TO IT.. GODDARD, HURLEY, HIBBERD AND RYDER ARE GOING TO BE HUGE FACTORS.. AND WHO WILL TRY AND SHUT DOWN HEPPELL…. ? KENNEDY IS POWERFUL IN TIGHT AND HE WILL THROW HIS BODY ABOUT..( HAWTHORN TOSSING HIM OUT.. BIZARRE DECISION.. AND A BIG MISTAKE BY CLARKSON) BUT MANY PLAYERS WERE DOWN LAST WEEK FOR THE SWANS, SO I SAY THEY WILL BOUNCE BACK HERE AND BEGIN ANOTHER WINNING STREAK.. ONE THAT MAY STILL BE GOING AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT SEASON… AND I STILL DO NOT THE SWANS AS A FOOTBALL CLUB.. MINOR RESPECT.

GOOD GAME SWANS 10-30

CROWS EAGLES

CROWS NOW HAVE THE INCENTIVE TO GO ON WITH IT.. EAGLES HAVE HURT THEM HERE BEFORE, BUT ADAM SIMPSON HAS NOT INSPIRED THIS FRANCHISE FOR MINE. HE NEEDS MORE EMOTION IN HIS DEMEANOUR. HIS TEAM REFLECTS HIS DRONED DOWN LAISSIARE FAIRE TYPE LOOK …. IN SHORT CROWS JUST HAVE TO WIN. CROWS 20 -45

RICHMOND GIANTS

TIGERS COMING HOME WELL AFTER FINDING OUT THAT PLAYING ATTACKING FOOTY WORKS BEST FOR THEM.. ANYTIME THEY HAVE TO THINK TURNS OUT TO BE A HUGE PROBLEM FOR THEM.. I TOLD YOU YEARS AGO THEY WERE DUMB AS DISH WATER… PLAY ON PLAY ON AND PLAY ON SOME MORE SUITS THEIR MENTAL ABILITY… ITS BEEN A TOTALLY WASTED SEASON.. IF THEY CAN MAKE 8 FROM HERE IT WILL BE A MIRACLE.. PERHAPS THEY CAN? BUT YOU HAVE TO DOUBT THEM.. GIANTS ARE 2 YEARS AWAY. TIGERS 28-60

SUNS V SAINTS.

I WAS APPALLED BY THE SUNS LAST WEEK AND WE SAW A CLUB THAT DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH OF A FOUNDATION OF VALUES.. NO ABLETT AND NO SUNS.. ARGUE AGAINST THAT? YOU JUST CANT. I REALLY THOUGHT THEY WOULD RESPOND LAST WEEK, BUT INSTEAD THEY DID THE EXACT OPPOSITE! IT WAS STAGGERING TO ME. THESE BLOKES HAVE ENORMOUS TALENT, BUT THEY, AS A COLLECTIVE GAVE NOTHING. BENNELL AND JACK MARTIN, WHOM I ADMIT NEEDS TWO PRES SEASONS TO TOUGHEN UP, AND SO MANY OTHERS GAVE NOTHING.. BUT THE TEAM ENERGY WAS JUST NOT THERE.. AND FINALS WERE AT STAKE! IT WAS IN DEED BEWILDRERING.
ITS A MASSIVE INDICTMENT ON THEM AS A CLUB ON A PHILOSOPHICAL LEVEL. OTHER CLUBS WOULD BE TAKING ONE NOTE OF THIS.. AND THATS THE SUNS HAVE AN UNDER BELLY THAT IS REALLY SOFT… TURN THEM OVER AND STAB AT IT. SAINTS COME OFF A HUGE WIN OVER FREO.. WHO WINS THIS GAME I DO NOT KNOW.. SUNS SHOULD, BUT WHO ARE THE SUNS? DO NOT KNOW.

NORTH GEELONG

BIG CHANCE NORTH? MAYBE. THEY ARE SUCH A FICKLE SIDE, BUT DO GO WELL AGAINST TEAMS ABOVE THEM! ESPECIALLY AFTER BEING FLOGGED IN PRESS FOR BEING UNRELIABLE. I SAY GEELONG ARE BEATABLE. I SAY GEELONG CANNOT PLAY 4 QUARTERS OF PACE FOOTBALL. I WOULD BE INSISTING ON A PLAY ON STYLE MATCH TO REALLY STRETCH GEELONG.. I JUST DO NOT RATE GEELONG THIS SEASON. THEY PLAY PATCHY FOOTBALL.AND GO MISSING FOR TOO MANY MINUTES TO BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY. NORTH SHOULD EXPOSE THEM.. IF NORTH ARE SERIOUS. HARVEY, CUNNINGTON, DEL SANTO ( GEELONG SUITS HIM )THOMPSON AND HANSEN SHOULD ALL GO WELL. GEELONG WILL NEED HAWKINS TO DOMINATE, AND WHILE THIS IS POSSIBLE, AND LETS FACE IT, IT IS AFTER ALLA SIDE WITH VARCOE, MURDOCH, JOHNSON, BARTEL, MOTLOP, AND KELLY.. ALL TOP CLASS PLAYERS FOR THEM… GEE THIS SHOULD BE A GOOD MATCH… EITHER TEAM CAN WIN.. I JUST FIGURE THE SOONER THE BETTER I AM RIGHT ABOUT GEELONG BEING AN IMPOSTER THIS SEASON THE BETTER…RELYING ON NORTH TO HURT THEM MAYBE FANCIFUL, BUT IF THEY PLAY FAST FOOTY THEY CAN DO THEM IN. NORTH 1-12.

MELB BRISBANE

I DO NOT LIKE MELB AT ALL.. I WANT BRISBANE TO WIN AND SEEING THE LIONS ARE FINDING A ROAR AGAIN IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THEY CAN BELT MELB. THE WAY TO BEAT MELB IS TO HIT THEM HARD WITH THE BODY… PUT WATTS BACK IN HIS LACKADAISICAL PREFERRED MODE, AND MAKING HIM THE SYMBOL FOR THEM TO STRUGGLE… LION WISE I AM HUGELY IMPRESSED WITH HANLEY..THE IRISHMAN ( HE PLAYS AT OUT GOLF CLUB! ) HE IS A SUPER PLAYER,,, HE WOULD MAKE EVERY TEAM IN THE COMP.. AND ONLY ABOUT 3 PLAYERS IN LIONS WOULD… AND RICH IS NOT AVAILABLE… I AM NOT ENRAPTURED ABOUT MELB’S FRAWLEY. I WOULD NOT BUY HIM.. I WOULD HAPPILY SELL HIM. HE IS NO STAR. MAKES POOR DECISIONS I THINK.. AND HIS GOAL KICKING IS HORRIBLE. HIS TECHNIQUE IS RUBBISH.. ITS BASH AND HOPE. OR IF CLOSE ITS STEER AND PRAY. HE HAS NO IDEA.
YES I THIN K BRISBANE CAN DO WELL HERE. TAKE THE HEAD START. LIONS 1-20. LIONS BACK UP FROM GOLF DAY ON WEDNESDAY AT BRISBANE GOLF CLUB.

HAWKS V DOGS

NORMALLY YOU WOULD SAY HAWTHORN HAS THIS GAME WON BEFORE THEY HIT THE FIELD AS THE DOGS WILL BE THINKING THEY ARE NO CHANCE.. ITS PROBABLY RIGHT ALSO. THE DOGS ARE NORMALLY CORRECT IN THEIR HIDDEN THINKING… THEY DO MEET HAWTHORN AT A GOOD TIME SEEING HAWKS MADE SUCH A BIG COME BACK LAST WEEK… BUT JACK RUSSELL WILL HAVE THEM PRETTY PREPARED FITNESS WISE AND ITS UP TO CLARKSON TO HAVE THEM EMOTIONALLY READY.. I DO NOT EXPECT A HUGE WIN, THE DOGS ARE IMPROVING. HAWKS WILL FIND A WAY, DO ENOUGH ETC TO BEAT THIS MOB… HAWKS 18-40. BRUEST MOVES A LITTLE LIKE PETER HUDSON.. AND HE MAY READ THE GAME IN A SIMILAR FASHION.

BEST BETS. FREO ALL UP RICHMOND ALL UP CROWS ALL UP NORTH THE LINE ALL UP LIONS THE LINE ESSENDON THE LINE AND DOGS THE LINE.. THEN PRAY HARD.

FOOTY RATINGS – Round 18 (Split round) July 24, 2014 No Comments

WEST COAST EAGLES v RICHMOND – Recent form lines show Tigers have a chance of upsetting Eagles in this game. Just as Brisbane and St Kilda have shown in the past, a team can lift a level when one of their greats announces retirement as Dean Cox has. With that in mind – No BET

BRISBANE v GOLD COAST – Couldn’t split these sides on the scoreboard, with the ratings predicting a draw in this game! We are yet to have one this season so not without a chance of happening here. Given the line margin is so high, value rests with the Lions. BET - Lions @ 15.5 Line.

HAWTHORN v SYDNEY SWANS – Whilst the Swans are being backed for plenty in this game we have the odds in favour of the Hawks. Just over 4 goal differential in rated price v current price dictates that the Hawks are a bet in this game. BET - Hawks @ 4.5 Line.

COLLINGWOOD v ADELAIDE – Pies have lost 4 of their last 5 but could get up in this one. Crows have lost 10 of their last 11 at the MCG hence the reason why the ratings have them 3 goals behind the Pies. BET - Pies WIN

 

KENSINGTON Saturday – Races 7 & 8 No Comments

RACE 7

No.1 I’VE GOT THE LOOKS ($3.20 – not really) Has won 2nd up and did win 1st up so it’s a matter of not having gone backwards. Snowden trains so that a huge plus! Gets back so check patterns but historically they can run on here.
No.3 ANGEL BEE ($7.50). Is a query runner. Stable plunged a horse Wednesday and it lost badly so check money patterns here. Won a trial but poorly drawn. Not a go forward horse so could be caught wide. If front runners track shelve her.
No.9 CATSEYE SURPRISE ($14). Could be a surprise winner here. Has the form line with Mineko.
No.6 JACINTA ($4.60). Is the best fresh horse as has won twice 1st up in 2 attempts! Drawn well and not beaten far by Messene who is better than these. Big chance I expect, I think I will be having something on her.

SELECTIONS: 1-6/3-9

RACE 8

Going for two leaders here and trusting they do not tear into each other.
No.7 CORRYVRECKAN ($6). Is proven track and distance and gets a nice run near or in lead.
No.5 PAEDEROS ($5). Will jump and run and take hold. Should fight on well.
No.8 SOCIETY MAN ($5). Should also be near lead. I am trusting they do not fight each other as they do not have to. May take sit? Third?
No.3 BURBERO ($8.50). Won over 1300m at Randwick will take a sit in behind them and hope for pace being on, be midfield the fence.

SELECTIONS: 7-5-8-3. Taking on You’ll Never ($8). I see him wide. Taxmeifyoucan ($11) is poorly weighted.

DOOMBEN Saturday – Races 7 & 8 No Comments

RACE 7

No.3 EPIC ($4). Has been looking for 1600m and is ready to fire here. Pretty keen on him to go very well. Proven right here also. Biggest worry is A Allen. He has been slaughtering them in my opinion, going forward with mid race moves that have been disastrous. Saving grace is that drawn gate 4. Hoping he rides him well.
No.4 FERMENT ($5.50). Returned to form with a solid win at Eagle Farm over 1500m, 1600m is no worries as has won here over that. Well weighted!!
No.6 BILLY AUCASH ($7). Again gets run of race and is spot on fit after 4 runs in.
No.5 REGULAR ($11). Is quite consistent and thereabouts.

SELECTIONS: 3-4-6-5 … may put No.8 Elmantosh ($11) in quaddies as if won would hurt me, but Bruce Hill horses not going very well at all.

RACE 8

No.2 HEZA BOBBY DAZZLER ($4.60). Can come from behind or go forward. Needs a good run. Promising horse.
No.9 SCHILLACKING ($4.60). Ran well and is slightly better drawn. Has ability and I see him as the big danger to fav.
No.10 TOTAL AUTHORITY ($15). Is a 17th starter with good figures here. Wide gate but goes forward. Could be a bolter.
No.7 VOODOO BLUE MAGIC ($16). Is drawn to need luck and a wet track best so if flash flood occurs get excited!

SELECTIONS: 2-9/10,7

SUPER 15 – Semi Finals No Comments

CRUSADERS v SHARKS
Good tough match this. Not unlike South Africa v All Blacks. I am almost hoping Crusaders win so they can come to Australia and go home looking sad! I want to see them forlorn on the ground after the match looking depressed, that will suit me fine. I think they must pay a punishment for needlessly killing animals. Hunting is for people who need to survive on their wits, not rich football players looking for recreation, go bowling. The Sharks will make it hard for them, but only falling into a victory v Highlanders who have been in terrible form is hardly a great form line for this. But Jake White is no fool so he will have them primed up and on a mission. Imagine if it was Brumbies v Sharks next week! How bizarre would that be, awkward for some. I admit I do rate the Crusaders that highly, they do have Carter back but is he last years man? They are solid in the forwards and backs without being dynamic. Dagg will have to be a huge difference. Gee the more I think about it the more I think the ref will do his best to get Crusaders home. I do not rate Ellis at 9 and the back line is not that great, not sure either way. I do rate White as a coach, way higher than Blackadder. Ah to hell with it Sharks with head start! But expecting Crusaders to win but almost hope not! As White v Brumbies would be interesting, or White v Tahs would also be a snub to Brumbies fans. Crusaders 26-18, the line is +7 and that’s tempting for the Sharks?

WARATAHS v BRUMBIES (home ground advantage for Waratahs)
Should be a true nail biter. I would not be surprised if scores were close all match. I even think it will be a Brumbies lead at half time and then the Tahs come home over the top. I say that because the Brumbies were in good form last week running the ball, not kicking, and looking powerful doing it. Speight was on fire and looking deadly dangerous. Tackling him all game would be a task way beyond me. He is big, black, and fast. Kurundrani is the same and powerfully dangerous. The Brumbies were wisely throwing it around, the Tahs were resting. They may take time to get into the game after the lay off? Seen that scenario happen often enough. The back line match-up is fascinating, half backs both go well but the 10’s and 12′s are anybodies guess. Toomua tackles hard, Foley takes it to the line and I would be prepared to have him hit late to hurt him. Both goal kickers are not in form, Lealifano was shocking v Chiefs, missed the veritable barn door twice and Foley kicks it so hard and sharp, it better not rain, as if it does his action will be tested, and if you are standing at silly point, you might cop it! But Mogg v Israel will be all telling. If Brumbies kick it to him they will be crazy, and it will be cue in the rack. Forwards wise the Tahs have line out problems and if I was the Brumbies I would kick it out on full as they may get it back. Tatafu has never mastered throwing it in, his coaches have failed him. I so much wanted a crack at it with him, but wiser smarter blokes took on the task and failed dismally. The Tahs are bigger than the Brumbies in the forwards, and they will try and bully them about, and they might! But it won’t be easy, and all in between this is some idiot referee doing his best to destroy it all. In the name of rugby social justice or something. Yes if I was betting I would be looking at Brumbies half time leaders and Tahs at fulltime. I might even have five bucks on the draw. Maybe Waratahs by 1-12, but far from sure 26-26? 31-28? Brumbies get +7 the line and that’s a good bet, on paper.