DOOMBEN RACES 7&8 December 19, 2014 No Comments
RACE 7 NO 3 RIVA DE LAGO 12.00 IS SUCH BA GOOD PRICE AND RAN ON SO NICELY LAST TIME THAT I HAVE TO BACK HIM. LIKES IT SOFT ALSO, SO THESE RAINY LOOKING CLOUDS MIGHT BE HIS GO. 20-1 NOW.
NO 4 SOME DAY 5.00 IS THE THE PROVEN LOCAL HORSE THIS TRIP.. OK IN SOFT OR GOOD. GO WELL IF HAS LUCK FROM TRICKY GATE.
NO 1 BIG MONEY 4.80 IS UP IN WEIGHT, UNPROVEN THIS DISTANCE BUT GETS A GREAT AGAIN BY OLD TIME CHAMP JOCKEY. I WAS KEEN HIM LAST TIME, BUT SEEING UNPROVEN THE DISTANCE, I CANT GALLOP INTO HIM. BUT SHOULD RUN WELL AND GET EVERY CHANCE.
NO 8 WHISKY ALLROUND ..5.00 IF RAINS COME BIG TIME THE ONE TO BEAT..TOTALLY LOVES IT WET. HAS REALLY FOUND HIS FORM AND IMPROVING…WEIGHT DROP A BIG ADVANTAGE IF TRACK DETERIORATES.
BOXING UP,1,3,4,8…NO 11 INTO THE RED 8.00 NEEDS IT FIRM…LEAVING OUT THE 12.. MIGHT INCLUDE IN QUADDY IF TRACK IS A GOOD TRACK,BUT THATS DOUBTFUL…OR IS IT?
RACE 8. NO 2 TIGER DIMEJAN 3.80 PROMISING SPRINTER WHO SHOULD BE EVEN BETTER THIS TIME IN.
NO 4 FAITH N COURAGE 6.00 BEEN GOING STRONGLY AND DRAWN TO DO THAT AGAIN.
NO 5 NATURAL DANCER 9.00 WILL GO FORWARDS AND GIVE A SIGHT. THE LAST 50 LOOKS IFFY.
NO 8 YOUNG FUN 12.00 HAS THE FORM BEHIND NATURAL DANCER SO HE FITS IN FOR 4TH! SOFT TRACK SUITS BEST.
RACE 7. NO 9 CRAFTINESS 3.00 IS COMING OF AGE AND HIS CLOSE 2ND TO RELIGIFY IS THE FORM I LIKE HERE. AND BETTER DRAWN AS WELL…AND WEIGHTED BETTER.
NO 4 RELIGIFY 3.40 IS DRAWN AWKWARDLY, AND WILL NEED A TOP RIDE, AND MIGHT GET IT WITH TOMMY BERRY… I LIKE THIS HORSE.
NO 1 INSIDE JOB 12.00 GETS BACK AND RUNS ON…CHECK PATTERNS AS IS BIG ODDS.
NO 11 SUPREME EFFORT 16.00 HAS TRIALLED TWICE AND MIGHT BE READY TO SHOCK HERE FOR AT LEAST A PLACE.
RACE 8. NO 9 KOROIBETE 9.00 IS NOW WITH MOODY AND HAS GOOD ABILITY WHEN RIGHT..
NO 11 VASHKA 3.40 IS THE ONE TO BEAT. DROPS IN WEIGHT, AND SHINN RIDING WINNERS.
NO 12 FRESPANOL 6.00 IS FIT AND TRIES FOR A WHILE. GIVE A SIGHT.
NO 15 CENTRE PIVOT 5.50 BOLTED IN AT CANTERBURY AND WILL GET A COPSY RUN NOT FAR OFF PACE HERE. BEEN BACKED ALREADY…BUT THIS IS NO EASY RACE FOR HIM.
DOOMBEN RACES 7&8 December 11, 2014 No Comments
No.10 KURTLEY ($9). Won well last time and is peaking, so that’s a good thing to be here. Three runs in so this run should be good also. OK if track soft, but not proven on heavy.
No.2 DARCI BE GOOD ($11). Gets a nice run and is in form.
No.6 DOUBLE IMPACT ($8). Was beaten 2.6 lengths 2 starts ago by Sir Moments and that’s good form.
No.8 ALDINI. Is capable of surprising, bit of rain would help chances.
SELECTIONS: 10-2-6-8 tricky looking. Would like to think we have the winner here. 13 TINTS ($17) is handy when right and distance might suit if they can run on.
No.2 MAGIC IN MOTION ($6.50). Looked like it was never going to lose last start and won with authority. Up in weight but drawn to get a good run. Big odds available.
No.3 OUR BOY NICHOLAS ($8). Has not raced for 9 weeks and this will test trainer Toby Edmonds but he has such a good record here that you would think he has been set for this. Big test for trainer here.
No.13 GALA AFFAIR ($10). Won the Brian Ogilvie race, an omen I should have taken more seriously. I left favourite out as Brian would have, but still got it wrong. Drawn poorly and up in weight but is fit. 17th starter and a grey on a wet track?
No.9 ROMANARMA ($15). Has weak figures here but his run at GC two ago was exciting. No rain needed for him.
No.4 HEART OF MANY ($4.40). Is the wet tracker here, but rotten record here.
SELECTIONS: 2-3-13-9. Gala Affair value again.
REALLY hard meeting so be careful. Really steamy conditions and it’s like living in a jungle with heat and flies and strange sounds happening. Sydney looks way easier. Please bet carefully as this meeting looks a trap you may not escape, that’s my opinion. Christmas coming and many more meetings happening and conditions all week have been like an African jungle, totally horrible. Big rains now happening. Many more meetings coming, bet small or not at all I say.
SAIGON TEA in Sydney and RUDY!! SIR MOMENTS.
mmm tough looking race!
No.1 BALL OF MUSCLE ($2.60). Won well 1st up and given a freshen since then and up in weights. Not sure but should run well.
No.2 CAPROSSA ($11). Looks an interesting runner having a fantastic 1st up record. By Testa Rossa but not great wet form?? Not sure again but if money comes might be the one. Small bet maybe at big odds.
No.5 I’M USAIN (Scr)
No.6 MINIATURE ($5.50). Might need a race or two but might not now that O’Shea taken over?? If money came for her I would be following for something. This is winnable by her standards. Include all bet types.
No.9 HOLDER SUNSET ($10). A Cummings horse, recently a late scratching so might be OK as was a sneaky tip. Likes it wet also.
SELECTIONS: 1-2-6-9… scared of this race. Quaddie leg.
No.3 PEACE FORCE ($4). Is suited if track OK and likes to go forward and that’s the recipe I look for in 1400m races.
No.1 DUBLIN LASS ($4.80). Looks iffy to me and I am doubting she can win jumping 2kg in weight and needs a firm track, so watch weather closely. I think in big trouble if wet.
No.2 MANWAZEEL ($9). Was slaughtered by Bowman last start. He gave it no possible in my opinion by riding it aggressively out of barrier. I thought his ride was disgraceful, and he is riding it again! Has to sit back and come with a run, that’s my opinion anyway.
No.4 NISROC ($10). By Northern Meteor and is improving each start. Won over 1400m at Warwick Farm. This is a jump up on that, but this race no great shakes either. Has hopes. Gets a cosy run 4th the fence.
SELECTIONS: 3-1-2-4. Hard race unless track OK then I think Peace Force will win.
AUSTRALIAN PGA GOLF December 10, 2014 No Comments
The facts are this is a disappointing situation as the course is not ready for a big tournament. The 9′s do not match up and the course is simply not ready for intense competition. It’s new, too new, and should have been switched somewhere else. Hopefully it won’t all come out in the press and the players will no doubt say all the right things, but the people in the know say this tournament should not be here. But Sportsbetting .com.au are betting on the event so go for it!
Adam Scott (Market says $2.90 my odds $3). So hard to know what to do with him. His putting is just not good enough to be reliable in making an opinion but could, and should win by 7! But with his iffy putting stroke who knows. I can’t take a short price when somebody might get on a streak putting run. I want him to win, but I can’t take $2.90 about him, golf is too hard for that price.
Marc Leishman ($16 – $16). Very unreliable player in that he goes so well and can’t finish off 4 days with wins.
John Senden ($21 – $41). Really disappointing in Sydney where any winds make him terrified I think. His Aussie Open 3 years back have scarred him in Aussie winds I think. May improve in jungle like humidity.
Boo Weekly ($32 – $61). My hex on him is working really well and I continue to death ride him. Go home Boo and stop killing animals.
Brendon de Jonge ($22 – $34). Big overweight bloke who will struggle in jungle heat. No hope for mine.
Robert Allenby ($30 – $45). Last decades man.
Greg Chalmers ($31 – $31). Gave a big sight last event where he chipped brilliantly well. Otherwise he is boring to watch as he waddles around.
Brett Rumford ($31 – $19). He played well and is going to be threat here.
Ryan Fox ($37 – $101). NZer who can’t possibly win.
Rod Pampling ($38 – $51). Swings way too quickly to win anything as the pressure winds up a fast swing goes haywire. He has no hope.
Adam Bland ($65 – $81). Lost weight and has a new coach in Jens Neilsen whom I used to caddy for in NZ. Jens will have him swinging well and this swashbuckler can get on hot streaks and is fitter now.
Adam Crawford ($150 – $101). Gave a sight in Open where he made it right up the leader board after day 2. Only has to be fitter for that to perhaps show up again and he is used to the heat driven conditions. Jungle I tell you, not the worst and should make the cut.
Scott Gardiner ($150 – $150). Got a hole in one and that should have revved him up. Hope he goes well but he is hard to tip.
Michael Wright ($200 – $200). Made the cut last event which was important seeing his last round decimation in previous big event. He showed good character to keep playing pretty well. Has to keep playing happy.
Ryan Haller ($300 – $300). I want him to go well. Is used to the scary conditions where he should sweat like a Japanese soldier and happily home state boy who needs to fire, hope he does.
Value runner RUMFORD
Happy to say I have a great record in this race going back to horses like Pelican Point and Sea Road! Love this race and devastated that Said Com is not a $2.50 favourite, but this is a tough business we are in.
No.1 MONTON (Market price $26 – my computer says $81). I give him no chance on a soft track, went super well last time in and I say that was his zenith and it’s all downhill from here. No hope for mine. Skiing off down the slopes slowly.
No.2 AOMEN ($26 – $51). Another Cummings Anthony situation, so many of his horses do amazing things one day and the opposite the next. He has trouble in maintaining their form I say but when money goes on they go well. I say cannot win this. Rough hope for 4th only.
No.3 STRAWBERRY BOY ($6.50 – $8). Another Waller dilemma??? I nearly bought strawberries down shop but did not get a sign, he is the wrong one? But has won twice this distance and has run well both runs in and likes it soft and Cassidy rides Randwick really well … mmmm
No.4 I’M IMPOSING ($9 – $7.50). Shocked me winning last start as I gave him none. Waller magic again shook me to my core, massive quadrella was gone by him winning. Proven here.
No.5 PELICANO ($21 – $41). Good horse but 1st up in the Villiers is stretching a point I think. Good trainer but he is going for immortality by winning Villiers 1st up. Proven in soft going. I have to take on principle but is a good horse.
No.6 SIR MOMENTS ($5 – $5). Raced like a horse having a nice run last start. Set for this and is good enough to figure prominently. Likes soft going and has a brilliant finish on him. Needs to settle back I think from this barrier and come down middle where Randwick winners often come. Big hopes with any luck.
No.7 SCREAM MACHINE ($34 – $81). Not one of my horses and I cannot consider him. Terrible record here makes me breathe easy. No screaming from me.
No.8 ESTONIAN PRINCESS ($6 – $15). Good effort to get nutted by I’m Imposing, that form line is respectable here and being by Snitzel the ground if a slow 6 is suitable. I am leaving out but the richer may want to include. I say cannot win.
No.9 MIDSUMMER SUN ($31 – $17). Back from 2000m which a proven method used by Waterhouse and Waller for 1600m Randwick wins so see this as a positive. Drops 3kg which also helps. Include in 1st 4 as most will not.
No.10 MULTILATERAL ($34 – $34). Another Waller-Callander horse! Needed the run last time after a freshen. Could figure for 4th maybe. Getting down in weights helps but a roughie nevertheless.
No.11 ROSE OF CHOICE ($6.50 – $15). Snowden horse here from Melbourne!! That’s unusual. I personally do not think the form lines stand up at all. I say cannot place. Leaving out.
No.12 RUDY ($7 – $5). Superior wet tracker and if rains come and track was heavy I am backing him hard. Good horse, always liked him. Like anybody who has seen the film Rudy, I saw it while snowed in in Idaho a number of years ago, I was totally taken with this film true story. You did not forget the name Rudy after watching this classic film. I am now covered in goose bumps, I am backing him!!
No.13 KAYPERS ($34 – $61). No hope, there will be no smoke salmon to go with the kaypers if you back him.
No.14 GENERAL GROOVE ($13 – $34). They are dreaming, no groove for him here. He will be out grooved.
No.15 KEEP COOL ($101 – $301). Is making up the numbers. No idea why Joe is putting him in here. Must be a 2000m race coming up.
SELECTIONS: 12,6,4,3 …. Backing 12 and 6. Watch for rain … Rudy!! Heavy track backing both the 6 and 12.