DOOMBEN RACES 9 & 10 January 29, 2015 No Comments
No.2 ELMANTOSH ($7). Ready to win again. Stable going really well. Bruce Hill has changed something in his training, and it’s working. All his horses going well. $17 available now – good bet.
No.7 LÉNTRECOTE ($5.50). Is also ready to win, three runs in has him ready to get this trip which he has won over.
No.15 BUDGET BENDER ($7.50). Is a wet tracker who should be good odds here and appeals in trifecta at least. Quinella chance at big odds.
No.8 BLACK JET ($8). Forget he went around last start, got squeezed up early and then was never a hope. Can improve at odds.
SELECTIONS: 2,7,15,8 – I am taking on the no.6 Eights A Party … $8 under my odds
No.5 BELIEVE ‘N’ RECEIVE ($13). I am now trapped into him until he shows me he is not going well. Tip was, needed the run last start and was never really in it. I think is a blow out hope at odds. Very good track and distance would prefer not too soft for him, is $26 early.
No.6 PRO CONSUL ($6). Has good form lines and is well placed here. Dodgy barrier may not have him well placed? or maybe the fence is off and he is? But form says hard to beat.
No.8 FRENCH LESSON ($9). Underrated galloper. Goes OK in town when comes for a trip.
No.11 CAELLUM ($9). I always back him and I will be backing again. I like him.
SELECTIONS: Hard race this 5-6-8-11 … many chances
No.6 GEORGEY AEROPLANE ($2). Looks the best bet here. Ready for this trip and in wet looks really hard to beat to me. I am only scared of topweight. My best bet all day of the favourites going around. Secret teachings love him.
No.1 GOSH ($8.50). Started to run on when all over last start. Waller with an import soft ground winner by Pentire so trip is suitable. I hope he runs 3rd or 4th!!
No.2 CHOICE BRO ($14). Is ready for this trip but not sure about in wet? But has Place Music on dam side and that means swims, but Choisir horses in wet are nothing special I think.
No.4 OUR BOY NICHOLAS ($7.50). Is a risk at the trip but maybe can handle. 4th Tinto form is good form. I just hope he runs here as I think can‘t win.
SELECTIONS: 6 and, best bet from 1,2,4…9 Sansekile ($7.50) made us money in 1st 4 last week. Ran on well in good form race. Wet??
No.4 ALIAS ($4). Is a real wet tracker and win 1st up for Pride and he likes to keep plenty in tank so bound to be well improved. Top hope here.
No.5 DEVONSHIRE DUKE ($9). Is well placed and is a heavy track winner. Has won fresh twice so gets conditions to suit. Chance.
No.15 LUCKY NEWS ($16). Needs it soft to compete at this level. Gets conditions to suit and could surprise. Include trifectas. Is $41 early.
No.3 AGHAMORE ($7). I was initially keen on him and I will be backing him. I am penalising him for not having a fashionable trainer, and that’s wrong to do so I will be including all bet types. Good chance and is fantastic 2nd up!! His pitfall is no placings here but that was not on a heavy track!! He did run 4th to Generalife when it was flying on a soft track. Really good chance and I will be betting if price is right. Could get good price if trainer is quiet. Really big odds and I have bet on him to win this – $21 seems generous. Hopefully saying thank you after race!
EXPRESSWAY STAKES January 28, 2015 No Comments
Prices rated to a HEAVY track
No.1 BOBAN (Market price $6 – my computer says $26). Has no hope on a wet track. His owners will be calling on the sun god Rama to shine down like hell on the track. If it’s wet he cannot win. He is also not really a first up horse and also has to prove he has come back. I would scratch him if track was worse than a soft 7. Two preps ago he was best horse in Australia I thought.
No.2 BEATEN UP ($34 – $61). Another Waller runner who has good ability. Not raced for such a long time (511 days) says cannot win. Two handy trials, but that’s a long time out of action not many come back winning after that kind of break, let alone in such a prestigious race. Jockey selected is Collett which says not fancied by stable.
No.3 HAWKSPUR ($17 – $34). No Jimmy Cassidy riding is first thing I noticed. Angland retains the ride, but he has not won on him. This distance is too short. Needs a mile to get started but I expect him to run a sound race. Good horse.
No.4 WEARY ($5 – $4.60). Excellent chance here. Loves it wet and is a grey also. I expect him to finish on well and not be too far away in the run, perhaps about 5th or 6th. Will have to make up 5 or 6 lengths to win but he does have a sprint while fresh. Big weight is his nemesis but he is more tractable at this distance than many others and he has shown good promise. Should be the pick of Waller runners. The big weight does scare me however.
No.5 BAGMAN ($34 – $16). By Easy Rocking and likes it wet! Has good figures this trip which may surprise many. Lightly raced 8YO and is the blowout horse in the race. Include in all bets as the roughie to make it pay. If they are running on he should be too. Could sneak 3rd or 4th.
No.6 MALAVIO ($17 – $26). Is a fresh horse and sprints OK. Many of these are not. By a wet track sire in Snitzel and has had two nice trials so could easily figure here. The big weight is the anchor he has to overcome.
No.7 THAT’S A GOOD IDEA ($7 – $17). Many declared him last week, I was not sure about that. Did finish off pretty well considering, but never looked the winner. Should race near lead or probably does lead. No wet track form to grasp but I doubt is good enough especially if the bottom weight is ready!!
No.8 TERRITORY ($11 – $17). Finished on quite well in Gosford race where Ball Of Muscle was too strong. This is another step. Should run ok without winning. Wet track form kind of OK but not a heavy tracker.
No.9 THERMAL CURRENT ($12 – $9). 17th starter with race fitness his advantage. How do Moody horses go at present?? I am scared to back them not knowing what the truth is. I hope he runs well as I will include him in quaddie at least. Backing Moody horses not a comforting thing to do at present.
No.10 DRIEFONTEIN ($11 – $51). I give her no chance on a wet track, just not her go. Jumps and goes fast but when asked to really put in just can’t do it on a wet track.
No.11 PANZER DIVISION ($3.50 – $3). Looks the winner if ready to play. His win in the Ming Dynasty on a heavy track was something to behold. His powerful display was all conquering. He really wanted to surge on and win well, he was really impressive. I am very keen for him to get out of coming from gate 11 as secret teachings suggest this barrier is no good for him, so hopefully scratchings will happen and Boban and Driefontein miss race if heavy track.
MY SELECTION: Panzer Division, if he gets out of starting from gate 11. If he stays in gate 11 my trifecta becomes 4,9,11—4,9,11– 4,5,6,8,9,11
The Swans … are going DOWN! January 25, 2015 No Comments
Swans market price $4.50 My price $6
There is only one way for the Swans to regain credibility, and that’s to win the grand final. They lost so much respect, and so many strong NOUN words when they capitulated, and crumbled in the final v Hawthorn .. so many teams and their players would have totally loved the Swans getting dished up as mushed up sushi with any sauce you wanted, or requested. Big name players like McVeigh were just awful. Stop McVeigh and you can stop this mob! I have said this for 2 years… He links the team up beautifully…
The Swans had so much arrogance and belief about them. They had the majority of the football world bluffed…forgone conclusion they all suggested … and with Buddy and Tippett dominating up forward it was understandable to many .. ( naturally I tipped Hawthorn to beat them, but many believers of theirs were left shell shocked… and now heavily scarred.
They now have to bounce back from this mental drubbing with nothing but a premiership, or they slip back into the cracks with so many others… In many ways it’s now or wait another “6-12″ years for a premiership chance.
Their coach has to bide his time, as he knows that redemption cannot come until grand final day… All any team has to think now is.. “ah the Swans.. what they do, and how they behave means nothing until the finals come around, they can talk it up, act with seeming defiance, but its dribbling spittle until they face finals acid…” … They lost their nerve and their ability in the last grand final…
They have a tough road back… you see that knowing in their insides at what happened.. at what they allowed to happen, can make you feel fanatical about recovering and making it back.. but fanatics get tired… and laughter is going to be a big positive in their club…. if they stay on fanatics road, and do not laugh it up along the way they will falter. It’s a marathon, not a hit and run mission..Their brilliance will dull if they maintain a rage… They still have Buddy and Tippett … and so many others… so they are going to thrash many teams… lets see in October…
Conclusion.. Still hard to beat… but many teams know they can they beat them.. especially Port and Hawthorn… I say Swans finish 3rd. I say they make finals and then fail… and miss grand final.
RANDWICK RACES 5&6 January 24, 2015 No Comments
RACE 5. NO 9 MISS TEN PINS 4.40 SHOULD HAVE WON EASILY LAST START, BUT JOCKEY WENT EARLY FOR NO REASON AT ALL AND COST ME GETTING QUADDY 12 TIMES.. AT ABOUT 150 BUCKS EACH TIME.. VERY DISAPPOINTING INDEED.. IF YOU PUT KIDS ON HORSES YOU HAVE TO TEACH THEM TO RIDE PROPERLY!..KNOW PACE, KNOW PACE KNOW PACE…. LETS SEE WHAT HE HAS LEARNT FROM LAST BUTCHERING.
NO 2 CAPROSSA 11.00 HAS NOW HAD 3 RUNS IN AND OWES ME.. IMPROVED A BIT LAST START… BUT STILL LOOKS BIG AND GROSS AND NOW MUST BE READY TO DO ITS BEST.. IT COULD BE LIFE AFTER THIS RACE IF LETS ME DOWN AND DOES NOT FISNISH 1,2.
NO 6 MIHIRI 4.60 I KNOCKED ITS CHANCES 1ST UP AND HE MADE CRAFTINESS BETER ODDS BY THE FEAR THE BOOKIES HAD OVER HER BEING A HAWKES HORSE.. SHOULD BE PRETTY READY NOW.. 3 WEEKS TO GET READY. SHOULD RUN WELL..IF THE MONEY CAME THIS TIME I WOULD BE IMPROVING HER POSITION IN BETTING… NO VALUE IN EARLY MARKETS.
NO 4 JUST A BLURR 15.00 LOOKS AGOOD ROUGHIE FOR 4TH. HAS WON FRESH AND AND WON ITS TRIAL, SO ITS PRETTY FORWARD.
RACE 6. NO 4 ORIENTAL LADY 6.50 SEEMS TO BE COMING TO HAND NICELY FOR KRIS LEES AND SEEING HE TRAINS STAYERS WELL.. MAYBE THIS HORSE CAN LEAP IN HERE.. I WOULD NORMALLY WANT AT LEAST 1 MORE RUN, BUT THIS FIELD IS BULGING WITH HORSES WHO HAVE BEEN UP A LONG WHILE, SO MIGHT BE FRESH HORSE ON SCENE WITH GOOD FORM..
NO 5 CASINO DANCER 6.00 IS UNPROVEN AT trip but seems to be racing with honesty. i doubt can win, but maybe a good quinella horse at value?
NO 7 OFF THE RAILS 6.00 IS RACE HARD FIT FOR BAKER, AND MAYBE CAN RUN WELL HERE. TINTO WOULD BEAT THESE I THINK… SO THATS GOOD FORM LINE.
NO 6 DANAS BEST 5.50 IS ON THE IMPROVE AFTER A LONG SPELL. RAN OK GOLD COAST.
4-5-7-6 TAKING ON WALLER ALWAYS RISKY BUSINESS.
DOOMBEN RACES 7&8 January 22, 2015 No Comments
No.1 MISSY LONGSTOCKINGS ($5.50). Should have won last start Gold Coast and gets a great run mid field and Browne takes over from Colless!! Will start fav.
No.4 BREAKFAST IN BED ($4). Gets the right run to be in finish. Freshened up, so back in trip might be ok, likes it wet!
No.5 ENDLESS SHADOW ($7.50). Will be powering home and look for backmarkers before betting her, but if they are definite blow out chance if Missy gets in trouble again.
No.6 PICKABEE ($8). Needed the run first up. Only beaten 3 lengths and I expect her to be in a finish very soon. Nice strong mare.
WET TRACKERS: 3-4-5-6
No.1 FRENCH LESSON ($6). Is well placed. Bolted in at Atherton, but has come to town before and run very well.
No.3 CAELLUM ($11). Is a horse I have always backed. I am lassoed into him. Good first up run and went better than most thought.
No.5 SIEGFRIED ($7). Is fit and awkwardly drawn so will be probably going back and hoping.
No.8 MR JETSET ($5.50). Needs luck but will be hitting the line with a clear run at them late.
WET TRACKERS: 1-4-5-11-12-14