AFL – Round 18 July 21, 2014 No Comments
WEST COAST EAGLES v RICHMOND
Some value here the Tigers, as they are over $2.10. Richmond are suited by the big oval, it gives them room to move and find space. If they have the desire to run and be involved, they should give a fair sight. Like a lot of lower teams players are lifting looking for respect and a further contract extension, not to mention a smaller bake from the coaches who sit down with players at end of season and have a heart to heart. Richmond has been terrible this season, their style of play has been simply awful, going backwards and further backwards and then moving it slowly. It has been lamentable, but the last couple of weeks they have been quicker and way improved. Dusty Martin should fire up and be good. Vickery has improved, but his mental state is dreadful. He wants to mouth off instead of getting the ball and kicking goals. The Eagles have been quite depressing and now lose Cox at end of season. Emotion may be a factor as it has been with Cassisi and number 7 for St Kilda, a truly fantastic ruckman but it also means Nic Nat takes over lock stock and barrel, and he does well with responsibility. Their back line misses their Glass super full, terrific player but gone! They need Shuey to fire. Kennedy to kick goals, but Richmond are lifting and have a good backline. I fancy the Tigers to give a sight. Richmond with 11 start appeals to me.
BRISBANE LIONS v GOLD COAST SUNS
Suns are superior, but Lions are still Lions. Like sometimes, especially at home. The Irishman is a top class player but they still miss Rich, who is back playing golf, which is a start (I saw him down the club last week) but missing your stars when you are a lowly team is huge. The Suns played like dead kids last start. Had a week off to freshen, on class if Suns are serious they win! They have wonderful young players and if Lynch, May and Dixon all go well, they should kick 10 goals between them. Bennell and “Presto” have to get the ball but the Lions do go well at the Gabba so I do expect a tight match. Joel Patful better be in form as he will have 3 talls to take care of a different times. How well Bennell goes will be paramount. I favour the Suns as they are a finals chance and have the incentive to be on for this match and if Guy McKenna can’t get them up for this match well forget them for finals anyway. I expect the Suns to win.
HAWTHORN v SYDNEY SWANS
Great match up with Buddy meeting his old team, and there will be no love lost for the 120 minutes, but after that it will be hugs. Franklin is the best player in the game along with Ablett, but if you ask me to select one player first, I want Buddy as he finishes things off in spectacular style and that lifts teams with utter genius. Gibson returns here and may stand Buddy (they used to pick me up on the way to training a few years back) Gibson is best friends with Buddy so it won’t be a nasty match up as they love each other! Gibson is fresh and Buddy has a huge advantage, in fact Buddy has a huge advantage over all the Hawks defenders, or any defenders as he is a great football player. In peak form Shoenmakers won’t get the job as Buddy would annihilate him. I would use Hodge down back to stifle the Swans attack. He reads the game brilliantly and lays his body on the line. I love Hodge across half back, I would always start him there he kills attacks time after time. Hawthorn also have to use Hill, his pace is brilliant and if Jetta and Rowen are involved Hawthorn need Hill! But Tippett also returns and that means Buddy, Reid and Tippett are huge players up forward and Hawthorn are not highly statured down back. If Hawthorn want to win they better get lots of the ball and stop it getting forwards so Lewis better be brilliant and Mitchell will be! I can’t believe how often McVeigh gets involved, stop him as a link and you are half way home. So much says Swans are a better team but Swans have won 12 in a row that’s a huge number and maybe that means they lose one? I think logic says Swans win but I am tipping Hawthorn, Roughhead to kick 5. I think a team needs to lose, and seeing the week off syndrome can be massive, Hawthorn can do the surprise, even though logic says Swans are unbeatable. Hawks 1-12. Swans to win premiership, and I do not like Swans at all. I love the bird, but not the football club.
COLLINGWOOD v ADELAIDE
Two teams capable of disappointing, regularly! Crows need to be expansive, the wider the game is the better chance the Crows. As I keep saying Magpies are two years away from being ready to go for it, Crows in similar position tho I doubt they will ever win again, not in our lifetimes anyway. Crows are not tough enough when under pressure, they go missing, especially away from home but if they start well they can beat Collingwood who are under enormous pressure to perform but stopping Lynch and Walker is going to be tough if Dangerfield is fabulous. Pendlebury will be under stress, and Swan is out of form as is Cloke. Yes if Crows can get it wide and run I see them winning. Should be a great match to watch and talk about afterwards, one team is going to be grilled if they lose. If Crows lose their character is going to be vilified and if Collingwood lose what should be spoken about is Leading Teams. I have said from day one that Leading Teams is the last thing that Collingwood needs, it is so wrong it bewilders me how stupid they are in ringing them up, totally the wrong motivation for them. Maybe Crows 1-15 but I would not bet much on it as trusting the Crows is not a thing I do, except the bird as they are brilliantly smart and predictable. If it’s the smart thing to do, they will do it. I feed Crows at home and at the golf club.
EF RACES 7,8 July 18, 2014 No Comments
RACE 7. NO 3 STARTS ME UP 5.00 IS IN A NOW OR NEVER RACE. FIT AND WELL DRAWN. I COULD NOT HAVE A BIG BET ON HIM, BUT EW OR PLACE ONLY ONLY LOOKS THE GO.
NO 7 SALUTER 6.00 RAN 2ND TO BELIEVE AND RECEIVE AND AFTER THAT HAD 4 WEEKS OFF, BUT THAT HORSE WON LAST START AGAIN, SO THAT FORM IS STRONG.
NO 9 BYMONASHEE 8.00 HAS SUCH A WEAK RECORD AT EF, 1 PLACING FROM 8 STARTS, BUT THIS DISTANCE WITH PACE ON LOOKS IDEAL. IF HAD A GOOD RECORD HERE, I WOULD BE SAYING SHOULD WIN!
NO 4 LITTLE BROWN HORSE10.00 LIKES THIS TRACK AND HAS WON AT DISTANCE.
3-7-9-4. HARD RACE.
NO 4 FAST ARROW 6.00 HAS SHOWN LOADS OF POTENTIAL AT SC SINCE WINING ITS MAIDEN IN SENSATIONAL FASHION.. LOVES RAIN ALSO. TOUGH WEIGHT I THINK.
NO 2 BODEGA NEGRA 4.50 IS CONSISTENT AND SHOULD BE IN FINISH. NEVER PACED HERE, BUT I THINK WILL PLACE.
NO 7 OAK N ARTHUR 15.00 IS DRAWN POORLY, BUT HAS FAIR FORM FOR THIS. WILL SIT WTMF AND RUN ON.
NO 9 COMACINA 8.50 WAS BIT BLAND AT SC WHEN WAS GOOD ODDS AND FANCIED. RAN FAIRLY, BUT HAS SHOWN PROMISE.
4-2-7-9. HARD RACE.
NO 3 ZUCCHERINO 6.00 IS DOWN IN WEIGHTS RAN 2ND TO SENSE AND REASON 2 STARTS AGO.. SO MIGHT BE RIGHT IN THIS FROM GATE 5.
NO 1 KRISTY LEE 6.00 VERY CONSISTENT, DRAWN TO GET BEATEN, BUT CAN RUN 2ND,
NO 5 FINE BUBBLES 9.00 HAS BEEN RUNNING ON WELL.
NO 2 SENSE AND REASON 7.00 NEEDS LONGER BUT SHOULD BE RUNNING ON WELL TO GET 4TH.
NO 3 BIG QUERY NO 3 PENTOMETER WHO HAS GOOD FRESH FORM. 2 GOOD TRIALS.
NO 4 ABBASSO 6.00 WALLER HORSE WITH WINNING FORM. THIS IS A BIT HARDER, BUT DROPS IN WEIGHT,,NOT MANY TO BEAT THO.
NO 2 PAEDEROS 7.50 COST ME LOADS WHEN I LEFT IT OF QUADDY LAST START… PAID BIG WITHOUT IT, AND I GOT NONE, I HAVE TO PUT IN THIS TIME, BUT I DOUBT CAN WIN. I THINK IT CAN PACE BUT NOT WIN, BUT COULD NOT WALK ABOUT NORMALLY IF IT BEAT ME AGAIN.
NO 7 EVANGALIST /// ? MCEVOY HORSE FROM UK. GOOD TRAINER THIS BLOKE, SO QUERY IT. 2 ADELAIDE TRIALS AND SEEING COMES TO SYDNEY ONLY SUGGESTS COME UP WELL.
THE FINALS.. FORGET ABOUT THE GAME IN AFRICA, AS THE HIGHLANDERS WILL BE METAPHORICALLY EATEN ALIVE BY THE SHARKS. HIGHLANDERS HAVE BEEN OUT OF FORM AND BEEN REALLY STRUGGLING TO EVEN LOOK LIKE THEY COULD COMPETE IN FINALS.. ALMOST LIKE THEY MADE THE FINALS AND THEN CLOSED UP SHOP… GO TO AFRICA FOR END OF SEASON TRIP… ON THEIR DAY THEY CAN SCORE TRIES AND KICK THEIR GOALS.. BUT THIS TIME IN THE TANK, THEY WILL BE BELTED SO HARD IN THE FORWARDS I EXPECT NOT MANY TO COME OUT WALKING STRAIGHT.
I HAVE ALWAYS RATED ALBERTS. HE SMASHES PEOPLE BEYOND THE CALL OF WAR… IF SOUTH AFRICA GO TO WAR, I AM ON HIS SIDE. STEYN AT TEN IS NOT MY IDEA OF A TEN.. SO THAT MEANS THEY PLAY TO A PATTERN.. KICK IT LONG OR HIGH AND CHARGE FORWARD.. BUT ITS PIETERSEN AND MVOVO WHO HAVE THE POWER AND SPEED TO SCORE TRIES…
IF THE HIGHLANDERS WERE IN ANY SORT OF FORM YOU COULD MAKE A CASE FOR THEM… BUT THEY ARE NOT. I IMAGINE MOST FOLKS WILL BE BARRACKING FOR THE NZER’S… BUT THE SCORE BOARD WILL TELL A DIFFERENT TALE// I SAY SHARKS 36- 15.
THE BIG MATCH IS THE CHIEFS V BRUMBIES IN CANBERRA… THAT HOME GROUND IS HUGE FOR THE BRUMBIES. ITS A COLD AWFUL STADIUM IN NEED OF TEARING DOWN.. ITS REALLY THE WORST STADIUM I HAVE BEEN IN ANY WHERE IN THE WORLD.IT HAS A BLEAK CONCRETE COLDNESS, AND IS PARTICUALLY UNINVITING… SO THAT HAS A GREAT ADVANTAGE FOR THE LOCALS.. COMPARE IT THE MAGNIFICENT PLAYING SURFACE OF THE CHIEFS.. THE BEST SURFACE IN THE WORLD… ALL COLOURED AND MANICURED TO PERFECTION…
AS YOU KNOW I HAVE BARRACKED FOR THE CHIEFS FOR THE LAST 5 SEASONS.. THEY HAVE PLAYED AND TRIED TO PLAY THE BEST BRAND OF RUGBY IN THE WORLD.. BUT THEY HAVE FORSAKEN THEIR GREAT FAST MEN TO FOREIGN LANDS, AND THEY HAVE SUFFERED FOR IT… CRUDEN AND KERR – BARLOW WILL HOLD A LARGE PART TO THIS MATCH. BOTH ARE DYNAMIC.. BUT I ACTUALLY LIKE THE BRUMBIES A LOT.. THEY ARE FAST AND POWERFUL MEN… WHAT I HAVE HATED THIS SEASON IS THE BRUMBIES PROPENSITY TO KICK!! WAY TOO OFTEN FOR MY LIKING, AND AT THE EXPENSE OF A VERY BRILLIANT BACK LINE.. ITS FILLED WITH GAME BREAKERS.. SPEIGHT IS FANTASTIC, MOGG GOES WELL WHEN HE RUNS IT, NOT KICK IT SO OFTEN.. KURINDRANI IS A TOUGH MAN TO TACKLE.. MCCABE IS TOUGH AND HARD RUNNING, LEALIIFANO IS CLEVER AND KICKS WELL FOR GOAL.. BUT ITS NICK WHITE WHO HOLDS MANY KEYS HERE.. IF HE KICKS IT AWAY TOO OFTEN, I WILL LAMENT HIS TEAMS CHANCES… YOU DO NOT BEAT THE CHIEFS BY ENDLESS KICKING,… THE LESS THEY HAVE OF THE BALL, THE BETTER I WOULD HAVE THOUGHT… THE MAIN FORWARD I LIKE FOR THE BRUMBIES IS AUELEA.. HE IS DYNAMIC!
AS MUCH AS IT HURTS ME I AM GOING FOR THE BRUMBIES. I HAVE BEEN DISAPPOINTED WITH THE CHIEFS. THEY HAVE LOST MANY GAMES THEY SHOULD NOT HAVE… I SEE THEM BEING BUNDLED OUT HERE. BUT THANKS FOR COMING. BRUMBIES 25- 18
THE POSTMAN – Mail’s In! July 17, 2014 No Comments
Postman copped a spray last week from the faithful and rightly so, only saved face with his Essendon tick late in the piece but the bird had flown! Where does this Postman live cried the punters????!!! Return to Sender! But relax oh ye faithful, The Postman will make up for it this week in spades! Split round doh, wot the! Anyone want to ask Mick Malthouse what he thinks about them in the presser this week? Thought not! And how about that legend Lenny Hayes retiring. Grown men will cry when he walks off for the last time. An inspiration to us all! I Love Lenny!
Carlton v North Melbourne
All of a sudden with Collingwood on the nose the Kangaroos are only 4 points away from a top 4 finish. They had the “bye” last week against St Kilda but may have finally found their mojo. Typically, this would be a game they would lose against a 10th-16th side in Carlton but surely they have too much to play for. Carlton were brought back to reality with a thud against the Harlem Globetrotters last week. Just doubt they can be competitive enough against the Roos for long enough here. North 1-39 at the $2.13 is the go.
St Kilda v FremantleThe last time these two sides played this fixture it was a farewell game for a Saints trio and this time all eyes will be on Lenny Hayes as he begins his final 6 game journey. Aptly, the first one is against his former coach Rossy Lyon who will no doubt give Lenny a public pat on the bum once his Grand Final Dockers dismantle the Saint Shockers. Line is a familiar 58.5 which really shouldn’t be hard for the Dockers to cover given just how bad St Kilda are. You know you are in trouble when the $1.03 favs are $3.25 to win by 1-39!!!
GWS v Geelong
It’s this time of year when the young bodies of the development sides start to hit the proverbial “brick wall”. We will no doubt see the yearly “too long” discussion with respect to the games in the season. GWS and the Cats square off under lights in another Saturday night bore, 41.5 the ask for the Giants to cover. Geelong is another side that can’t afford a momentum changer as it will kill their top 4 chances. They will be far too good for the Giants. Period. Next!
Port Adelaide v Melbourne
Hang on a second? Didn’t they just play the other week? Oh well must be getting tired late in the week, well well well, hasn’t the wheel started to turn anti-clockwise for the Power! Five minutes ago they were clear on top, now they are having some late season blues and a top 4 spot is in serious jeopardy. Melbourne on the other hand are also finding the grind a bit too much to handle as they succumbed to the might of Geelong last week. Back at Adelaide Oval the Power will surely put this one to bed, regroup and focus on the build-up to September. From a punting perspective the 1-39 @ $2.55 seems the way I want to go here. Might be the value.
Western Bulldogs v Essendon
Reckon this game will have some spice to it as they always do. Doggies off the back of a big win against the Suns whilst the Bombers are on fire and have barged their way into the top 8. All the ingredients are there for a good old fashioned spine tingler! This time last year the Bulldogs started to win and consolidate another development season. Wonder if the next 6 rounds will be a repeat performance. I can smell this one going down to the wire. I expect the Dons to have too much polish but no surprise to see it close. Tri-bet both sides under 15.5.
CARLTON v KANGAROOS – There haven’t been too many games this year where both sides score over 100 points, yet the ratings indicate this game could be a shootout. Blues have a habit of performing when sent out at a big quote, and represent the value in this game. Blues @29.5 line, Total Match score over 189.5
ST KILDA v FREMANTLE – Match is priced accordingly considering where these 2 sides sit at the moment. Hard to make a case for an upset with the Saints rarely going past 20 shots at goal this year. No Bet
GWS v GEELONG – Interesting read on projected ratings here. Cats form line isn’t registering as high as expected, with history showing only 1 line in the last 4 years being covered by Geelong interstate at this quote or shorter. GWS do have to contend with the trip back from Perth, but have come up as the value in this game. GWS @ 41.5 line.
PORT ADELAIDE v MELBOURNE – The Dees have put a dent in our profit margin over the past few weeks, accounting for 2 of the 3 losses we have had over a 17 game streak. Will most likely reverse that trend this week, but the ratings do not support it. No Bet
WESTERN BULLDOGS v ESSENDON – The Bulldogs have come up again as the value play in this game, with a 3 goal margin being offered at the line. Bombers accuracy may have inflated the final margin last week, but ratings suggest a closer result this week. WB @ 18.5 line
Go to sportsbetting.com.au to get your golfing bets on. Lay them on thick as this is a tremendous tournament.
Adam Scott (my price $10). At peak of his powers and confidence and would be feeling like he owes this tournament another fair dinkum shot, and his driving prowess will count for plenty here as it’s a greener course which means less run for smaller hitters so he is super suited. If he putts well he gives this a big shake. Get on him I say!
Tiger Woods ($51). Cannot win. Has very little match practise going, is wild with driver and 4 rounds will be too many for him. May play well for 2 rounds but not 4 on his prep.
Henrik Stenson ($21). Not going as well this year as last, but how could he? If he was going to win a major this is the one however. Small bet perhaps just in case.
Graeme McDowell ($41). I say take him on! Many think the exact opposite but I can’t forget when he was there to perform in last rounds against longer hitters and he went for broke and tried to smash his driver, he even tried to smash a 3-wood and topped it. So I say with not as much run as previous from tee I say he tries to belt it and loses his swing. But others have backed him as a great bet, these are smart blokes but I say no no no. They say yes yes yes!
Justin Rose ($16). Winning 3 in a row is not impossible but imagine the odds 3 events ago, would be over 1000-1! But he is at home and in form, he is a big improver on learning how to win. I say you have to bet on him for something as he is the best form player going in. He would not have gotten carried away winning in Scotland knowing it was a lead up event, big chance.
Martin Kaymer ($16). I have to back him. German win soccer, national pride is high and it’s not like he is out of form. Must bet for me.
Jason Day ($41). Has weak form in this event so take on trust. If he makes the cut and is playing well maybe consider then, but then is then and now is now. I could not back him early knowing his form in this event is terrible.
Rory McIlroy ($21). Real high flyer then loses it. If he puts it together he could blow them away but he tries to hit the ball so hard it means he has to be in perfect rhythm a lot! If I was his coach I would be screaming, no harder than that after he got to about 95%. Is mercurial but has not played 4 rounds that often. I can’t knock him, I did have $100 on him when he led open with a low 60′s. I was feeling so smart, then he shot about 100 and I was devastated. Yes, maybe, can’t knock.
Rickie Fowler ($51). Done a stack on him but he might like this style of golf. I will save on him as I would feel ill if he won. Owes me lots!
Sergio Garcia ($41). Another enigma. His putting grip is frightening to kids. Great ball striker and capable but very reliable loser. I took $81 about him being leading player at some stage this year, I was dreaming. $81 was a fair price I thought in case he clicked but he has trouble clicking for four rounds.
Paul Casey ($101). Big disappointment.
Lee Westwood ($81). Love his accent.
Dustin Johnson ($34). Big driver will help his chances but he lacks something. He owes me also!
Phil Mickleson ($26). Peter Alliss said he is putting like a blind man in an earth quake. What this says is that maybe the gambler is losing his nerve?? Hope not. Exciting player to watch.
Zach Johnson ($49). Goes into the event with good form. My dentist has backed him!
Luke Donald ($101). I declared 2 or 3 years ago he would fall from grace. His length will be no good here. I have backed him to miss cut.
Brand Snedeker ($101). Always said his swing is way too fast to win a major. So far been right. Streak putter.
Matt Kuchar ($51). Likeable lanky yank. Flatter swing than a bloke with broken shoulders but he can beat me … easily, it’s so humbling. Far from hopeless.
BEST BET – Adam Scott, saving on others. Omen bet Harris English ($151), owes me lots. Sneaky tips from the caddy sheds for Brendon Todd and Ryan Palmer at $301.