COX PLATE… SECRETS SAY NO TO FAWKNER!! October 21, 2014 No Comments
1. SACRED FALLS (Market price $6.50 – My computer says $9.50). Needs a flash flood to have an advantage Hot in Melbourne today (Wednesday) but it is Melbourne! Still it’s unlikely to rain in torrents. Going pretty well and has placed at the distance and this track. Pace is on so gets his chance to come home. Some hope.
No.2 FAWKNER ($4 – $4.80). I was prepared to say would win, but secret teachings say no! Will run 2nd or 4th, I was stunned! Taking on secret teachings in big races is crazy as in big races there are no other vested interests at work, and races run far more honestly. I am going to include in Quaddie in case secret teachings wrong but my bet on Fawkner of $100 or $200 dollars is now $0. I cannot take on secret teachings in a big race. Might also include in a trifecta in a box. I am stunned!
No.3 SIDE GLANCE ($26 – $12). Goes forward and sits 1st 4. Pretty good run in Caufield Stakes. Could quite easily surprise considering! Will be one of the first to attack The Cleaner. E/W hopes looks quite bright.
No.4 HAPPY TRAILS ($10 – $7). Totally ready now. Been going quite well and 2nd up run suggested lost none of his ability. Nearly won this last year. Right in it from a good gate, sits about 5th. Oliver rides. Must bet for me for something at least. E/W looks good!
No.5 FORETELLER ($21 – $21). Good horse when right. Capable of surprising in almost anything. Gets pace on which must suit. Has a definite sprinting ability at the end of his races. Waller will have him primed. Blow out chance.
No.6 THE CLEANER ($15 – $41). Sentimental horse who just cannot win this. Beating Mourinho 2 starts back makes his omission look suspicious to me. Gutsy win at MV when leaders were flying but this is the big league. I say cannot win. I am not sentimental to Tasmania, or anything from Tasmania frankly.
No.7 GUEST OF HONOUR ($81 – $201). No form this distance and I doubt his appearance is more than token. Just a fair run 1st up over 1600m and now jumping to 2040m where he has no form! Mourinho has better credentials in my opinion. I think will finish 10th.
No.8 CRITERION ($9 – $9). Not really one of my horses, trained by veteran South African fellow who has some winners. James McDonald takes over for suspended Hugh Bowman. Last two runs have been over 2000m and has raced over 2400m and won! Needs to be trained to the minute or the excuse after race could be looking for longer. My guts says no … yes? Not for me.
No.9 SILENT ACHIEVER ($13 – $41). Autumn horse out of form. I said from the start training her for Melbourne Cup was fanciful, it made no sense. She is a 3200m horse in my opinion. I think will finish closer to 8th than 1st. No chance according to secret teachings.
No.10 ROYAL DESCENT ($11 – $9). Talk about a horse knocking on the door. Few horses get beaten a nose twice in 3 runs and 2nd in another and 2nd before that as well! Four 2nds in a row so obviously in nearly brilliant form. In honest form at least! Gets the right run as well and hard to say won’t place on form.
No.11 ADELAIDE ($6 – $6). Young horse from Ireland with O’Brien camp. Obviously a very smart horse. Won this distance twice already and only had 7 starts. Hard to leave out as foreigners already on fire here and I am from Adelaide so would feel sick if he won without me. Including all bet types.
No.12 ALMALAD ($41 – $34). Won over a mile here two starts back, which is something but last run was ordinary. Three-year-olds get no weight but I can’t have. Was too weak in big race last time. Had he figured in placings you would consider him but got beaten by miles. Not for me.
No.13 SWEYNESSE ($21 – $26). Third to Hampton Court in big Sydney race for 3YOs. I just cannot give him a chance. I think these horses would be better off spelling. They have had some tough runs of late and they are young. I am soft on young horses and I cannot possibly back him. Good to see Chad Schofield back in saddle.
No.14 WANDJINA ($34 – $101). Not sure how made the field! Won a race over 1000m. Ran a big race at big odds behind Shooting To Win in Caulfield Guineas. Has the Waterhouse persuasive power behind him but Mourinho was far more deserving in my own opinion. Talk of better runs than So You Think etc make no sense to me when you see his form. I say won’t run a place, hope not anyway as I left him out of last race and he cost me a big pay day, but this is against good horses.
SELECTIONS: My ideas are e/w Side Glance, win only Adelaide, e/w Happy Trails
MY First 4 is: 3,4,11/2/1,3,4,8,10,11/1,3,4,8,10,11.
GEELONG CUP October 20, 2014 No Comments
1. SERTORIUS (Market price $5 – My computer says $12). Not going that well this time in. Was terrific 1st up last time, this time not so much and 58kg looks too big an impost to me. Considering not flying high.
2. SHOREHAM ($8 – $8). Beaten 5 lengths by Lucia Valentina is not bad. Was big odds for that run and did well really. Three runs in and on improve. Far from worst.
3. WISH COME TRUE ($12 – $26). Dreams come true, is there a difference? Form lines weak seeing thrashed by Junoob. Moody trains, but still hard to have.
4. ZANBAGH ($6 – $7). Has good numbers for this. Big fan of Paddy Payne. Has nice weight drop and I think runs well here. Good roughie.
5. MORE THAN SACRED ($5.50 – $7). 2nd in Cranbourne Cup was a good effort. Only 3rd up into this and extra 375m to go? I think needs one more run, but against that concept did run 3rd in Auckland Cup Who Shot The Barman, still can’t work out how Celtic Prince ran 2nd?
6. LIKE A CAROUSEL ($9 – $5). Good chance seeing Muluqen proved that form strong winning at Randwick on Saturday. Keys in fine training form. Genuine chnace!
7. MARKSMANSHIP ($6 – $8). 17th starter so must include in bet types! Has Who Shot The Barman form which is ok, despite what some say. Has a nice prep happening and I think top 3 chance.
8. CARAVAN ROLLS ON ($7 – $12). Failed to flatter at 17th start, so seeing beaten 3.8 lens I am passing this caravan, 3.8 is a long way at races. When they get to 5 I generally scrub them, unless I know something! I did follow a caravan this morning but thankfully it turned off. Rough chance 3rd-5th but can’t win for mine.
9. CORREGIO ($34 – $41). Surprised when 2nd in Benalla Cup at odds. Distance is huge query also. Never been close to it before, uplaced 2 attempts most will leave out.
10. OMINOUS ($41 – $26). Good at distance, 3 runs in have been so-so to say least. Ran off legs by The Cleaner, so perhaps forget that run. Trainer trained by Bart so distance runners his go. Could improve but has to a lot. Good jockey on.
11. ALI VITAL ($41 – $34). Laing trains stayers pretty well and this horse only had 19 starts and improving a bit, 3rd or 4th a chance on Mourinho run.
12. PRETTY BLONDE ($81 – $101). Looks ugly here, and it hurts me to say it. I began life loving blondes and the dark Claudia Cardinale, she was exotic indeed, but Carol Lynley was big with me when young. Bridgette Bardot also. First girl I loved Prue Astley was truly beautiful, olive skin blonde hair green eyes and totally stunning. Another sad story there …
13. WALTZING TO WIN ($51 – $41). Beaten 6 lengths in the Herbert Power not too bad for this. From Kangaroo Island with a travel permit on Trubridge is bizzzzare. Will be big odds, probably not.
SELECTIONS: I think 6 e/w from 7-4-11
ALL BLACKS LOOK TOO GOOD October 17, 2014 No Comments
Australia face up to the ALL BLACKS after they lost in a terrific rugby exhibition 2 weeks ago to South Africa ! Mean while Our brave lads went down to unknown Argentina in a struggling performance… then the troubles hit the fan on the plane, and while its hopefully not EBOLA LIKE, It could be a sickness that requires serious treatments, and changes of all kinds of doctors and helpers etc…
This game is a must watch to see how our brave lads respond! If we liquify and dissipate away under the Black barrage, it will not be a huge “I DID NOT SEE THAT COMING”,,, IF WE CAN GET WITHIN 7 POINTS OR EVEN WIN, IT WILL BE A HUGE FILLET OF STEAK FOR THE WALLABY ORGANISATION THAT OTHERWISE LOOKS FORLORN… Getting in a PR team to help the team is Robbie Deans like.. Just spinning up lies to suggest that there is nothing to see here…which is what a lot of people ended up thinking.. and did not watch at all…
I am suggesting the ALL BLACKS win this, and win it well enough to swear that there is a gulf of difference between the countries.. At least our team resembles what I said it should it be at the START OF THIS SERIES! HIGGENBOTHAM FINALLY GETS A START AT 8.. WHERE HE SHOULD HAVE BEEN AND SHOULD HAVE BEEN CAPTAIN.. EXTRAORDINARY TO OVER LOOK HIM FOR A YOUNG GUN AT 7… Everybody is a fan of Hooper, but making him captain was non sensical, and we have seen his development in the role sorely needed… BUT MCKENZIE WAS EXTREMELY FOOLISH SO MANY PLAYERS EARLY IN SERIES OUT OF POSITIONS THAT THEY DESERVED TO HAVE.. IT WAS DOG BALLS TUFF.. IT WAS CLEARLY INSANE.
What effect the 100 tests to Adam Ashley Cooper has is also of some interest.. I know him quite well, and can tell you he is a very reliable citizen… He does not demand things, he just rolls along with the lads and causes no damage or trouble. He has been very consistent in his performances at test level.. In my opinion he has been way better for Australia than for many provinces!
He is our Conrad Smith… I trust he will play well… He will.
But its NZ that have the team ability to combine things well. THey give away way less penalties than we do, and they also drop the ball way less often than we do.. They are a reliable team, while we are problematic in nearly all facets.. we end up saying iF this and if that and then if.. we can go well.
Not having Skelton start is also a huge risk… I would try and stay in the game as long as possible and think that if we could perhaps get in front we might stay there with optimism.. but using him in 2nd half suggests we are coming from behind.. our blokes need to be in front, not running home hard, as we are hardly resembling BERNBOROUGH in any thing we do,./ Moral cannot be grand, so if we get off to a slow start we are toast.. I would build this team up with a fever pitch DEMANDING rant in these coming hours… We have to start like just Jeff Fenech, and some how punch like George Foreman.. it just looks improbable.. highly improbable actually..except for Israel..
A plus side is the venue. We do play our best footy here.. Pretty hot conditions.. a slippery ball… so scrums could play a huge part.. especially time wise… 20 minutes plus wasted watched scrums reform etc,… how well will Izzy go? I know NZ look way better with Dagg at the back… so this battle will be great.. I hope we don’t kick too much.. our kicking has been non stop and our coaches have erred badly in our tactics.. nowadays , like this century if you want to win, you don’t boot it away..
I say NZ win by 17 points at least… But as a spectacle its a must watch to see how how well or badly our brave lads go…
There are no loud voices in the coaching group, so getting a massive build up is not happening… its time like these we need it..but we aint got it.. NZ too well drilled for us.
RANDWICK RACES 7&8 October 16, 2014 No Comments
RACE 7. NO 12 RARE FRAGRANCE 6.50 MIGHT WIN THIS BY DEFAULT! NO PACE IN RACE AND COULD LEAD THESE WITHOUT TRYING. 1400 LEADERS ARE A THING TO LOVE, ESPECIALLY WHEN LITTLE OTHER PACE?? HOPING MAY HOLD ON..???
NO 6 MURDER OF CROWS 6.00 IS FIT AND WILL AND WILL RUN ON.
NO 5 MAHARA 5.00 SCR LAST WEEK.. THIS IS EASIER. COULD RUN ON WELL.
NO 3 FINE BUBBLES 6.00 HAS BEEN RUNNING WELL, AND AS TRYING TO PUT IN LATE BEHIND ARABIAN GOLD… NOT BEATEN FAR.. I BACKED AS A GOOD ROUGHIE, GAVE A SIGHT.. BEATEN 1.8..
NO 1 SCORPIO QUEEN 10.00 IF WETTISH LESS IF HEAVY FOUND FORM LAST TIME IN, CHANGED TRAINERS AND WAS NOT BAD 1ST UP.. LOVES HEAVY BEST SO SEE CONDITIONS. 12-6-5-3…1
NO 7 IVE GOT THE LOOKS 5.50 MIGHT BOUNCE BACK HERE WITH TRACK A BIT SOOGGYYY …PROVEN HERE AND A 17TH STARTER.
NO 9 COMMANDING WIT 10.00 WAS TALKED ABOUT 1ST UP AND DID NOTHING SPECIAL.. MAY IMPROVE HERE WITH STING OUT..BRED THAT WAY.
NO 3 AVOID LIGHTNING 3.50 MIGHT BE A GOOD CHANCE. LOVES SLOW GOING AND IF TRACK TURNS OUT TO FAVOUR WET TRACKERS ELEVATE AND BET ON … SLOW AND HEAVY WINNER WOULD GIVE HIM A BIG ADVANTAGE.
NO 2 BOUND FOR EARTH 21.00 IS GOOD FRESH, HAS NEW TRAINER IN OSHEA… WATCH FOR MOVES. NEEDS FIRM TRACK.
RACE 7. NO 8 THE STOREMAN 5.00 RACE READY NOW. SHOULD GIVE A GOOD SIGHT. MIGHT HAVE MISSED A BIT OF WORK EARLIER, SO IS NOW READY.
NO 9 RUDY I AM A BIG FAN OF RUDY.5.00 M CAHILL RIDES WHICH IS TERRIFYING AS HE IS ON A HUGE LOSING STREAK…WITH ME AT LEAST.. IF HE RIDES WINNERS IN THE INTERIM OF NOW (WEDNESDAY) AND THEN I MIGHT BACK HIM?? BEEN GOOD TO ME OVER ALL.
NO 5 FALINO 7.50 NEEDS PACE ON AND A BIG TRACK… I CANT GET ENTHUSIASTIC UNTIL GETS BACK TO EF.
NO 2 ROCKET TO GLORY4.60 DROPS -KILO ON LAST WIN.. WILL BE IN IT A LONG WAY. GOES FAST.
8-9-5-2. NO 1 TERRITORY7.00 IS A BLOW OUT HOPE
RACE 8. NO 5 I’M USAIN 3.50 WON AT CANTERBURY AND GETS EVERY CHANCE FROM GATE 3. LIKE HIM TO WIN THIS. WILL BE ON PACE. JUST NEEDS A GREAT RIDE TO BE IN THE FINISHING WATCH.
NO 8 CHARGE MISSILE 9.00 RYAN HAS ENGAGED MCMAHON AND THATS A SIGN THIS HORSE IS FANCIED. THE GATE MAKES IT DIFICULT.. IF IS READY, MIGHT BE SCR TO AVOID THE GATE.
NO 11 NATURAL DANCER 9.50 GOES FAST AND DRAWN TO GET THERE EASILY.. FOUGHT ON WELL AND IS ROCK HARD FIT.
NO 15 FAITH N COURAGE 21.00 HAS HAD 3 RUNS IN AND MIGHT BE READY TO SURPRISE??
NO 12 SHAPIN LADY 8.00 IS DRAWN TO NEED LOADS OF LUCK. PLACE CHANCE?
CAUFIELD CUP October 15, 2014 No Comments
No.1 ADMIRE RAKTI (Market price $13 – my computer says $17). I have taken the 50-1 this horse for Melb cup. I am naturally keen for him to come thru this race unscathed and in brilliant form! Everybody speaks well of him, and the Japs are winners in big races. Well drawn and a top jockey says he is hard to beat, but I think he needs longer and this is a lead up run. I say not here but if was to win will start a fav in the cup at $5.
No.2 DANDINO – (Scratched)
No.3 GREEN MOON ($34 – $61). The moon on the river mother is a red red moon, tonight I am going away on the wild wild moon, the moon on the river mother is red tonight … ah, the great Carl Sandburg, but this moon is green and not in fine form and has failed this track too often. Well drawn but not going overly well since way back when. Really hard to line him up. Fawkner seems to be the stable star at present, and not in this race.
No.4 SEA MOON ($51 – $51). Another Williams runner ridden by Chad Schofield. Hard to see him winning at present. Drawn to lose. Not in great form it seems but the best of Williams chances, drops in weight some help. Roughie for some.
No.5 BANDE ($9 – $6.50). Japanese horse hugely touted and even tho was sick a week or two ago seems to be back in balance. Seems to be a top chance and drawn to advantage. Goes forward and that puts him out of trouble. Lots of forward runners at Caufield. Hard to beat, excellent form 2400m and seeing only races ’2′ months ago is race fit and did win by 5! Must bet for me.
No.6 THE OFFER ($21 – $17). Waterhouse’s big Melb Cup hope. Been running usefully. I expect him to be finishing in top 6, why? Cos if he is going to be a big Melb Cup chance needs to be figuring somewhere near placegetters or be in the finish. Drawn to finish a good 5th or 6th however the secret teachings suggest could finish 3rd or 4th. If he could do that Waterhouse will be declaring for the Cup!
No.7 SEISMOS ($31 – $21). Likes this distance and is a smokey. Drops 3kg on winning last start beating Red Cadeaux! Proven form that. $5 saver at least on tote as will be about 40 to 50 to one.
No.8 HAWSPUR ($17 – $13). Is race fit and a good horse. Whether last year’s exacting efforts have taken a length or two off him I am not sure. Was highly fancied this time of the year last year. 3rd or 4th would not totally shock although winning would surprise according to form. But I do like his lead up to this race, very traditional and I like that. Good place chance in a tough race. Oliver and Waller combine and both are winners!
No.9 JUNOOB ($13 – $17). Won well and has a turn of foot. Needs luck as always gets back a bit. Should sit just worse than midfield and really should get his chance. I would think just below these but loves distance, 3rd or 4th at best?
No.10 MORIARTY ($26 – $61). Really hard for me to think he could possibly win. Handy type but seems in over his head here. Rodd rides the big plus. Rich people could put in for 3rd in tricks. Will blow in market.
No.11 WHO SHOT THE BARMAN ($15 – $34). Looking for longer but has been winding up well. I would expect a top 10 finish. I doubt can win either cup myself but is a Flemington type horse but Caulfield?? I doubt him here. When jockey talks after race he will say needs Flemington!
No.12 DEAR DEMI ($17 – $34). Just fantastic to see her trainer back and in fine form. It beggars belief how dangerous horses are and how Clarry deserved to get kicked in the face is astonishing. This mare is very honest and tries her hardest. Jimmy C sticks but I can’t see her winning this. I will be looking away late if she does look like it. Huge shock to me if she wins but is a terrific horse. Secret teachings say has a hope!
No.13 STIPULATE ($21 – $21). Been tipped last two and lost both. Getting down in weights helps a bit but has not been flying to line as much as I would like. Seems to get strung up in traffic easily. D Dunn is a terrific jockey and in form. If he was to go well I say it will be because of Dwayne. Top rider. Roughie for 3rd or 4th. Unproven this trip but has the grounding to get it.
No.14 LIDARI ($16 – $13). Going very well and well weighted around the form of Lucia Valentina when was a good run. Drawn well and locally trained. Been backed early and late. Race fit and in form. Owes me money I admit! Totally unsure but guts says no. But seeing I get this race wrong too often I say yes. Genuine top 4 chance. Include all bet types.
No.15 LUCIA VALENTINA ($4.60 – $6). Surprised me with the big win last start. Was very impressive indeed. Is the fav but I still think rain would make price more acceptable. In a good gate I think. Not a proven winner this trip so price is crazy. Ran 3rd to Rising Romance when a 3YO over 2400m. I admit I doubt 2400m is a worry but is racing horses who have won over the distance from all over the world. Well weighted! I think can run 2nd or 1st.
No.16 RISING ROMANCE ($13 – $21). Been a touch hard to piece together. So far I have not been backing her so I doubt I will start now. Trainer has always spoken highly of this horse and she is no fool. Last run was handy enough to suggest on the improve. I am leaving out with some fear.
No.17 BIG MEMORY ($17 – $34). The only 17th starter in the field and is number 17. I have put $4 on just in case but I do not give him a chance. Looks outclassed but did win here last start so in form at least.
No.18 GRIS CARO – (Scratched)
No. 19 BRAMBLES ($21 – $21). Pretty honest and always thereabouts. Real bolter to run 3rd now he gets a run. Has good form lines if you like the 15!
No.20 ARALDO ($61 – $41). Ready to do something and now he gets a run certainly not the roughest.
No.21 UNCHAIN MY HEART ($201 – $201). Dreaming! I put in for 3rd last start and ran miles back.
No.22 RENEW ($201 – $201). Likes this distance but is out of form going on 12 lens loss last start. Was a tuff run being wide and up near lead, but no.
My best chances are: 5) (15) Lucia Valentina (8) Hawkspur (14) Lidari (7) Seismos BRAMBLES NOW A CHANCE
I am boxing up 7,8,14,15,19 and only hoping…