RUGBY UNION – Super15 – ROUND 11 April 22, 2014 No Comments

Tough matches to select, especially after Crusaders beat Chiefs at Chiefs home ground, with 6 penalty goals to win! No tries, dubious at best!

Blues $2.02 v Waratahs $1.79. Tough match to pick. Blues not ruthless in their mental endeavour. I have stated over and over that their coach is way too soft and the players know it. Waratahs at least have a mad man in charge so am going for them. It matters more to the Tahs and they have Israel back! Piteau and Israel are two of best players in world so could be great to watch. These two truly are sensational players and both make my side, Israel wears 15 for me but? So maybe Waratahs 1-12.

Brumbies $1.63 v Chiefs $2.26. In Canberra, what a titanic struggle this will be! Chiefs coming off a shock loss to Crusaders even though it was thru penalty goals alone, no worries ref you were great! Really hard to know what will happen with so many good players, and both these teams play as teams! Brumbies are hard to beat here and they get home town refereeing decisions for sure, but who tackles best? The battle of the 9′s will be big, both are tuff and reliable players. I imagine drop balls and knock ons will count for plenty here as the pressure will be on. Should be a great match, no idea who wins. Guess Brumbies at home 1-12 but I could not bet on it. If Chiefs are in mood after last week they will be too good, Chiefs are a better team over all, but when away from home funny things happen!

Sharks $1.20 v Highlanders $4.60. People say Sharks are boring. I say they are a tough and uncompromising team, and are winners. To me that’s the big difference between these clubs. Highlanders ever green losers and Sharks led by a winner in Jake White. I say Sharks will find a way, especially at home. Sharks look a certainty.

Hurricanes $1.40 v Reds $2.95. What a sensational match up. Hurricanes in form and playing attacking rugby with save finishing things off. Cory Jane finding the footy, and a team desire to run it and not kick it! Reds have been pathetic and all talk, again we have heard a hooker talking it up … a hooker! If it was a mercurial player like Cooper I would listen but not a slow running plodder who is capable of doing nothing brilliant in my memory, so his big talk is laughable at best. I have finally gotten Reds right twice in a row and I am going for three times here. I say they won’t be winning this either. Hurricanes combining well and Reds talking talking talking, and then invariably giving away a stack of penalties. Until I see a big improvement in their penalty count, going down that is, I cannot take them seriously, they put themselves under way too much pressure by walking another 10m back too often. Hurricanes to win.

Force $1.75 v Bulls $2.08. Hard match this. Force were a bit tired v Rebels and they missed Mathewson at 9, he is an important player. Bulls have a big powerful team but tend to be such a better team at home. This game is too hard for me, maybe Force can win it but if Mathewson misses again I would not be keen. Bulls big chance.

Cheetahs $1.86 v Storm $1.95. Cheetahs have been the biggest disappointment this season. They got off to a bad start and have never recovered. In this comp getting behind from the beginning is hard to manage, you need to be a big powerful franchise and know how to win to overcome these type difficulties. Storm have been in similar boat but they are more powerful force over time and that’s why I have to suggest they will be winning. Storm 1-12.

Best Bet: Hurricanes to beat Reds.

AFL ROUND 6 April 21, 2014 No Comments

Collingwood $1.58 v Essendon $2.38. Sensational match this. The spite of losing is visually easily seen on Bomber Thompson’s face and heard in his words. He is champing at the bit to let his players loose here, he will have them revved up to a fever pitch. Buckley and Collingwood, well Collingwood are now reliable to play as a team, as they did under Malthouse. What will be different is the attack that Buckley allows, corridor is open! But a good side that attacks Collingwood with their same aggression, and have better players will beat them. Collingwood are still 5 players down from being a very very good team, but they are making up for it with team energy and zeal, I respect that enormously. Buckley looks likely to me. Who will match Cloke is like who will match Hawkins in this match, not sure Hurley can do him, may have to bring in a bigger man Carlisle is my choice, I disagree with Thompson. I think Hurley up forward is a winner, he just needs a refresher course in goal kicking. Great match, Collingwood are early in season, so their intensity is still strong. Later in the season it may drop off. Magpies to win by under 19. Collingwood 1-39.

St Kilda $1.39 v Brisbane Lions $2.95.
After watching Lions first hand last week, I was embarrassed for them. They were diabolical. St Kilda will win.
Fremantle $1.27 v North Melbourne $3.70. Both these teams were terrible last week. Freo are at home and that means they are 5 goals better side. Very disappointed in North team energy v Magpies. I really thought they would revel in the challenge of playing Magpies but they were brushed aside too easily. Mentally they have problems and this week they meet a physical side on the rebound. Freo will win.

Gold Coast Suns $1.19 v GWS Giants $4.70.
Both teams a bit ordinary last week. Suns fell in against Lady Boys and Giants were thrashed by Crows. I do think Suns are pretty good and I know Giants are going to be, but Suns should be winning here and winning quite well, by about 33 points. It will be a very personal game and lots of tackling is assured. Suns goal kicking last week was awful and Suns have put little effort into improving it, astonishing to me as goals give energy and confidence. Suns will win.

Carlton $2.12 v West Coast Eagles $1.72. Mutiny in game plan!! Common knowledge by those of us in the know that players said we want to play attacking footy, the team needs to run and attack thru centre. Malthouse has to fit in with players not the other way around! Eagles are falling off their perch. Eagles are better players over all but we will see how their character is this week. I am not sure who wins. I fancy Eagles if they turn up but just not sure at all. Still I’m glad Carlton are playing running football, it suits them best.

Melbourne (Lady Boys) $8 v Sydney Swans $1.08. This will be ugly. Swans by 70 plus, unless sub consciously players do not want to humiliate their former coach! Swans 39 plus the lock bet though. Swans shocked me with their improvement last week. I thought Freo would destroy them – huh to that!

Western Bulldogs $2.18 v Adelaide Crows $1.68. Dogs belted by Carlton and gave in meekly over all. Crows getting on a roll and running thru lines way better now. Dangerfield back in form and that means Dogs lose. Crows 1-39. Dogs are still a long way off. I would like to see Easton Wood play up forward. I want to see if he can be a target type player who brings the ball to ground. I could be wrong but I reckon he would go well. I have said so for 2 years now and still nothing from Dogs. Glad Jones is kicking goals now. He just needed good coaching to fire, he could always mark. Crows will win, or they are a moving joke.

Richmond $4.90 v Hawthorn $1.18.
Tigers were terrible for 3 quarters, hoping Matthews belief of starting how you finish as tigers went well last quarter. Hawks disappointing in a top match v Cats but their form is way superior to Richmond so I expect Hawks to win. They will start favourite by a long way but Tigers go well v Hawks which is an amazing anomaly but if Richmond want to be kicking it backwards all day I will be ill. As soon as they started that rubbish v Lions they were just terrible. I cannot imagine Hawks losing but history says it happens! Still I can’t pick them. I do trust Richmond play attacking football, last week maybe a season changer for the Tiges as the humiliation of what they served up was shocking. Roughead and Lewis will star and Mitchell will be a ball magnet. Fascinating game to watch.

Port Adelaide $2.04 v Geelong $1.77. Great match here. Cats have to lift again after last game v Hawks. Port return from big victory in Perth! What a match up. Port have a good record over Geelong winning a lot of games. Port will run well at this oval and are getting a good feel of the place. I think Port has a genuine hope but Geelong are not going to be easy, even if 4% off, if they are 4% off? I will not be shocked if Geelong miss some goals at this new environment but who stops Hawkins? He is a powerful man in form and I am not sure Port can handle him. Better hope they can stop him seeing much of it but bounce of the ball could go Ports way, Hartlett, Boak, Wingard and with Kane Cornes I can see how Port can win. Port 1-39, or Cats 1-39, no blow out here. Stevey J should relish the Adelaide Oval experience, or will this oval treat him poorly? Make no mistake this is a haloed ground where some teams and some players will excel more than others. Maybe Port 1-39?

Best Bet: Collingwood, all up St Kilda, all up Freo, all up Suns, after that good luck!

RANDWICK RACES 8,9 April 18, 2014 No Comments

RACE 8. NO 3 SACRED FALLS 7.00 WON US MONEY LAST WEEK, WAS A LOVELY PRICE AND A BANKER IN BETS.. STICKING WITH HIM. ON THE UP IN DISTANCE IS OK ON A WET TRACK.. I SAY RUNS 1ST OR 2ND IN THESE CONDITIONS. WALLER WOULD HAVE HIM PRIMED, IT FITS IN I THINK.

NO 5 CARLTON HOUSE 4.80 IS CERTAINLY THE OMEN BET IN THE QUEEN ELIZABETH STAKES. AND A WIN WOULD HARDLY SURPRISE.. RACES ON PACE AND LAST RUN WAS VERY VERY GOOD. TOMMY BERRY KNOWS HIM WELL. RUBBISH PRICE ON OFFER. WAS 6.50 LAST WEEK.

NO 11 ROYAL DESCENT 5.00 IS A SENSATIONAL PLACE CHANCE.. I DO NOT THINK CAN WIN BUT THINK A PLACE IS A NEAR CERTAINTY. LOVES TRACK AND DISTANCE AND HANDLES HEAVY TRACKS.. RUNS WELL FOR SURE.

NO 10 SLIENT ACHIEVER 5.50 HAS NEVER GONE BETTER, ONLY QUERY IS NO PLACINGS IN 2 GOES THIS TRACK.. BUT IS A 3 LENGTH BETTER HORSE THIS TIME IN..

BOX THESE AND COLLECT 3,5,11,10…. 2 ITS A DUNDEEL 5.50 IS NOW MATCH FIT, AND NOT CATCHING UP…HAS BEEN A RUN BEHIND ALL PREP AS I HAVE STATED BEFORE.. DROPPING BACK IN DISTANCE..

RACE 9. NO 3 FULL OF SPIRIT IS A BIG WATCH HORSE HERE. MOODY TRAINS NOW AFTER ROGER JAMES. HEAVY TRACK FORM OK, FORM LINES VERY GOOD AND EXCELLENT FRESH!

NO 5 PLUCKY BELLE MOST UNLUCKY LAST START IN ROSEHILL MUD, GIVEN 3 WEEKS TO GET OVER THAT.. HAS WON 2ND UP, LOOKS HARD TO BEAT.

NO 7 PERON IS FRESH, AND IS EXTRA SMART, SCR LAST WEEK AND SAVED FOR THIS.. HOPING FOR A BETTER TRACK?? BUT PERON IS A VERY GOOD HORSE, AND BIG TRACK SUITS IDEALLY. HITS LINE HARD.

NO 12 COSMIC ENDEAVOUR IS RACE FIT, AND GETS TO HOMETRACK FOR WATERHOUSE. DROPS 1 KILO ON GOOD 2ND TO POLITENESS.

3,5,7,12… NOT EASY. NO 1 DYSTOPIA AND 2. AVOID LIGHTNING ARE FROM HOPELESS..

EAGLE FARM 7,8 No Comments

RACE 7. NO 2 EXCELLENTES ALWAYS GOES BETTER 2ND UP, AND HE RAN WELL 1ST UP AFTER A FRESHEN. GO TOWARDS LEAD AND BE HARD TO BEAT AS LONG AS TRACK IS PRETTY GOOD.. NO WORSE THAN A DEAD 4 SUITS.

NO 5 LOVE ROCKS IS THE TESTING MATERIAL, SCR LAST WEEK FOR THIS.. NOT SURE WHY REALLY? BUT THIS HORSE IS VERY SMART INDEED, AND IF RUNS UP TO LAST TIME IN PROBABLY WINS… BUT LAST WEEK WAS 1100, THIS IS 1200.. INTERESTING TRAINING THOUGHTS?? FOR A FAST HORSE. HAS NOT WON 1ST UP IN TWO Attempts..

NO 1 BENNYS BUTTONS. I WAS AT JUMP OUTS ON TUESDAY WHEN TRACK WAS SLOW AND MAKING A LOUD SLAPPING SOUND, AND THIS HORSE WAS SUPER IMPRESSIVE WINNING EASILY IN DASHING STYLE.. BUT TRACK WAS SLOW… THATS HIS GO.. A WET TRACKER… IF TRACK WAS A SLOW 7 I WOULD DECLARE HIM ON WHAT I SAW ON TUESDAY, HE WAS VERY POWERFUL./. BUT IF TRACK IS DEAD 4, 5 HIS CHANCES ARE NOT AS GOOD.

NO 9 VINTAGE MOSS IS A VERY SMART SPRINTER AND IS DRAWN NOT SO WELL, GOES PRETTY QUICKLY, SO MAY GET LUCKY?? OR NOT! PLACE CHANCES ARE OK…

NO 6 TOKAMAK IS GOOD 1ST UP, AND A MARKET WATCH AT LEAST… HARD RACE.

2,5,1,9—6.

RACE 8 NOT MUCH PACE IN RACE MEANS NO 12 KENTUCKY WOMAN GETS ITS CHANCE TO WIN AGAIN… IT SHOULD SIT NO MORE THAN 4 LENGTHS OFF LEAD AND HAVE EVERY CHANCE TO HIT LEAD WITH 200 TO GO… SHOULD BE FIT AND WELL FOR THIS.

NO 1 BAUKAW I WAS DISAPPOINTED IN RIDE WHEN HE GOT LOST, CAPABLE OF STORMING HOME IOF PACE IS ON… BIG FIELD MAY MEAN THEY GO FASTER THAN I IMAGINE… GOOD WHEN RIGHT, APPRENTICE JOCKEY THE WORRY. DID NOT RIDE WELL LAST TIME.

NO 9 CAELLUM RAN A HANDY RACE LAST START AT BIG ODDS, AND CAN PLACE AGAIN HERE AT A LESSER PRICE, BUT MOST WILL LEAVE OUT…

NO 5 ALDINI HAS HAD TWO RUNS IN AND BOTH BEEN OK, WELL DRAWN, GOOD 1ST 4 CHANCE AT ODDS.

HARD RACE 12-1-9-5.

THE POSTMAN – HE DELIVERS! No Comments

Hello folks, it’s The Postman here delivering all your Best Bets for the Saturday’s afternoon of Group 1 glory!

It’s the Championships at Royal Randwick and the $4m Dollar Queen Elizabeth. One could be forgiven for thinking we are at Wimbledon without the covers! They play on grass, we play on mud although the forecast looks encouraging. The big question of the day isn’t at Randwick however – it’s at Oakbank – who will win the Onkaparinga Cup! Ha! Enjoy your day, here are some tips to make them pay!

RANDWICK

South Pacific Classic (Race 2) – Papillon Rouge EW. She had an excellent first preparation and can measure up to these. Value bet for the Postman to kick off proceedings.

Queen Of The Turf Stakes (Race 5) – It’s Catkins v Red Tracer for the title of Queen. They ran 1-2 in the Myer Classic in the Spring. Reckon Catkins is going just that little bit better and I like her at the odds. Catkins to wear the Crown today.

Sapphire Stakes (Race 9) – Plucky Belle ran super 1st up and ready to have last shot at them again. Moody/Schofield nice combo to finish the day. Peron fresh can run the quin. Back PB and save on quin.

CAULFIELD is a very competitive support program with heaps of value to be found.

Bert Bryant Handicap (Race 5) – Sense of Hite EW. Big odds for a horse that has had plenty of excuses past 2 or 3 starts. With a clear run can give a bold sight.

Victoria Handicap (Race 6) – Great race with heaps of depth. I am backing Ready to Rip 2nd up at the value. Drawn well and will look the winner at some stage!

Easter Cup (Race 7) – Banca Mo is so honest and ready to fire up to 2000m. The Hayes import Stipulate looks well placed too. Backing them both.

And finally…..The Onkaparinga Cup (Race 5)!!! My old mate Texan Warney, I just can’t tip against him!! Go Warney!!

Best Bet: Catkins
Best Value: Papillon Rouge
Best Roughie: Sense of Hite

The Postman
He Delivers!